Australia

 

Australia have had a major cleanout since their disastrous tour last autumn. They have John Connolly and Scott Johnson as their coaching team- who both have extensive experience coaching in the UK. They are missing a couple of key players, in particularly George Gregan. However, I think of the three southern hemisphere nations they have the most to prove on this tour (and will). I expect them to only be troubled by Ireland-even then I would expect Australia to pull through. backing Australia against Wales this weekend is definitely worth a look. and they can also be expected to safely dispatch Scotland and Italy. they also have a number of 'non test' tour games- the purpose of this tour is very much to build for next years world cup.

 

 

New Zealand

 

A full strength squad is coming over for this tour. The management are treating this as a dry run for the world cup next year. Their form has been very good- though perhaps not as good as the UK press would have you believe. The line out continues to be a problem in close games, and it seems that every team rises to their best when they play NZ at the moment.

 

The problem with NZ's preparation is that they rested a large number of 'Canterbury' all blacks in the domestic competition- to bring them back for the quarter finals- however Canterbury were eliminated in the quarters hence the Richie Mccaws, Aaron Maugers and Dan carters have played very little rugby over the last 2-3 months. I had expected England to run them close but the turmoil that is occurring in English rugby make me think they are their own worst enemy....

 

I have yet to see what handicap England are given by the bookies- if it is in the 10 point region or more, I would go for Eng /NZ by less than 10 option- England will give it everything.

 

NZ's track record in France is good but not great- i would be surprised if NZ can win both. I also think France will be given generous odds- therefore a couple of quid on France in each test could be a worthwhile speculator. I have thought about which test more vulnerable but can think of arguments both ways- sorry.

 

Wales will not trouble NZ. they may come close in the first 60 minutes- in fact will probably start well- but NZ always pulls away from them in the last 15 minutes.

 

South Africa

 

South Africa are resting a number of key players (maybe 4 from their starting 15), and they are still wrestling with the quota issue. their first game is against Ireland- and I expect it to be tight- whoever has the handicap with the book makers- I would back. they have 2 tests against England and I think South Africa will win one of these. both of these teams are in rebuilding phase. there just seems to be more off field distractions in the South African camp- plus a coach under pressure. although they are the only team to have beaten NZ this season....

 

Pacific Islands

 

the pacific islands combined team have three tests- this team is made up of Fiji, Tonga and Samoa. there are a lot of gifted players- the problem is that they get along as well as the Welsh and English, or the Irish and English....if not worse.  The upshot of this team is that there are a number of Europe based players in the team. the key is whether these Europe based players will be released from their clubs to play in these tests. if they are then I expect them to surprise and claim a home nation scalp. the sheer physicality of the players seems to disrupt the home nations.

They open against Wales- I think Wales will win, but it will be narrow. I think the Islanders will beat Scotland, and be easily beaten by Ireland. but please note, if they do not have many Europe based players they will be beaten in all three tests.