|
08 September 2007
Past
Trends
Looking
at the last 8 renewals of the Oliver Freaney & Company September
Handicap, the key trends are as follows:
-
6 of
the last 8 winners have carried at least 9-0 while 7 of the last 8
carried 8-9 or more.
-
Only 1
of the last 8 winners was a three-year-olds – the other 7 winners
comprised 4 4yos, 2 5yos and a 6yo.
-
All of
the last 8 winners were returned at single figure prices.
-
6 of
the last 7 winners were drawn 9 or lower.
-
7 of
the last 8 winners had finished in the first four last time out.
-
7 of
the last 8 winners had run between 2 and 5 times that season.
-
The
last 8 winners had 12, 2, 1, 8, 3, 4, 6 and 1 handicap runs
respectively.
-
6 of
the last 7 winners had already won a handicap.
-
6 of
the last 7 winners had reached the first four at the course.
-
7 of
the last 8 winners had already won over the trip.
-
Only 1
of the last 8 winners was held up.
Empirical
Power
bucked a major age stat when becoming a rare 3yo winner of this
event in 2004 and three years on another bold bid looks assured from
Edward Lynam’s charge. The 6yo looks the best fit on the trends
and he is well drawn in stall 6, a position from which he is likely
to try to make all. Despite being off the track for almost two years
when reappearing at Cork in June, he made light of the absence to
land a convincing 4l success in a decent conditions event over 6f.
The runner-up Snaefell has since gone to win a listed race, while
both the fourth and fifth have also won subsequently and Empirical
Power looks well-treated off a mark of 95, just 4lbs higher than
when he won the race previously. Following such a big display off a
long break, Empirical Power would appear a candidate to ‘bounce’
but he has been given over 2 months to recover from his Cork
exertions and goes very well fresh. His yard is in a rich form at
present and has landed two of the last three runnings of this event.
What is perhaps most interesting however, is his hugely impressive
record over the specialist’s trip of 7f on good ground or faster.
When running outside maiden company his record in such conditions
reads:231111. Conditions will be very much in his favour tomorrow,
and double-figure tissue prices about this horse are an insult to
his ability.
Leopardstown
Saturday
Much
has been written about Seamus Heffernan’s efforts, or lack
thereof, aboard Magna Cum Laude at Tipperary in August and many will
be keen on the chances of the Danehill Dancer colt in the 7f maiden.
However, he looks a tricky customer to say the least and I strongly
suspect that either lack of stamina or suspect attitude will find
him out tomorrow. A lay of the likely favourite looks a valid option
but I much prefer to back Houston
Dynimo who has by far the best form in the field yet is
priced up on the tissues at around 7/2. His recent form figures may
suggest he’s something of a nearly horse himself but in fact
he’s been most progressive of late and will relish this return to
7f, having run over 6f in a valuable sales’ race last time. He’s
run against some talented horses this term in the likes of Lisvale
and Lucifer Sam and he should be up to breaking his duck here.
Arch
Swing
must be just about the unluckiest horse-in-training in 2007 but
Saturday can finally see her land a long-awaited Group 1 victory in
the Matron Stakes. Bad draws, unsuitable ground, trouble in-running
and slow paces have all conspired against John Oxx’s filly but
tomorrow she returns to the site of her sole win this season at
Leopardstown. The recent spell of dry weather will have dried the
ground out to her liking, and she could well have too many guns for
Red Evie who she defeated comprehensively in the Falmouth.
Michael
Bell’s 3yo Regime has been put in at short price in Kilternan
Stakes but his form doesn’t entitle him to be so tight and Cougar
Bay looks a valid each-way alternative. A close second in
this race last year, David Wachman’s 4yo never runs a bad race and
is yet to finish out of the first three in three outings at the
track. 10f on fast ground are his optimum conditions and he’ll be
very hard to keep out of the frame.
The
market for the 1m4f Fillies Handicap is headed by Imperial Rose but
Tony Martin’s mare is sure to want softer ground and those chasing
her up in the betting look equally dodgy, with Halla Siamsa, Instant
Sparkle and Dawla all appearing badly treated. Consequently, Lucky
Heroine could well be sent off at a generous price and
Sheena Collins’ 5yo will be well suited by a return to this trip
on fast ground. Her third-placed finish behind Do The Trick and
Forthright at Galway suggested she was well up to winning a handicap
and a mark of 76 does not look at all harsh.
Galway
Sunday
On
The Other Hand
was my ante post fancy for the Galway Plate but the Charlie
Swan-trained gelding missed the cut for the valuable race and he can
make amends in the Smirnoff Handicap Chase over the same course and
distance on Sunday. The 7yo is two from two at the track and ran a
good fourth to Franc Villez on unsuitably soft ground last time.
Tony McCoy has come over for the mount and it’s a strong positive
in his favour as he often needs strong handling. His stable tends to
get their winners in streaks rather over a prolonged period of time
and the fact that they’ve had 3 winners with their last 9 runners
speaks strongly in his favour.
Meeting
Review – Curragh, Sunday 2nd September
Positives:
Eight Up has been one of
the most improved performers around this term and he just went under
at the death to stablemate Baron De’L in the 10f handicap. He’ll
be winning again when going back up in trip. The run of Satu was most disappointing for those
steamed into the Cambridgeshire favourite but it was simply too bad
to true as he finished a well-beaten last. He remains
well-handicapped. Magic Carpet was just done close home
in 9f Listed race for fillies and David Wachman’s 3yo looks up to
winning a similar race before the end of the season provided she
gets fast ground.
Negatives:
I lauded Timarwa
as a potential star earlier in the season but she’s really gone
backwards of late. She isn’t in love with the game and her home
reputation means she’ll always go off a shorter price than she
should. Akua’Ba looked to have poached a
winning lead in the Cambridgeshire before being collared close home
by Jalmira. Her 7 runner-up finishes in 1o starts this season tell
you all you need to know and she isn’t one to trust. Similar
comments apply to the third home Mooretown
Lady. Most of us would have loved to see Dandy Man land an overdue win in the
Flying Five but he went down narrowly to course specialist Benbaun.
The fact remains that he’s only once won above listed company and
has been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 starts. He invariably
goes off at a short price and the bookies must love him! Saoirse Abu
won her second Group 1 in as many starts in the Moyglare but that race has a horrible record of producing
top-class fillies and I doubt there were any stars in the field.
Pointers:
Many Colours showed her characteristic toughness to win the listed
race, and in so doing suggested that the horse she beat last time, Kyles
Bay, is well treated off his rating of 92. Few
horses love the Curragh more than Benbaun,
and his win in the Flying Five took his course record to:2112111.
Jim Bolger landed a double on the card and he has his stable in
flying form at present. The
6f maiden won by Perfect Polly at
the previous meeting got a number of boosts here with both the
winner and the runner-up acquitting themselves well. The third home,
Maiden
Moch, runs in the first at Leopardstown on Saturday and
will relish the step up to 7f. At Killarney, Field
Commander won the conditions hurdle in the style of a
smart novice and appeals as the type to make his mark in graded
races later on.
Tony
Keenan
|