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01 Sep 2007

Past Trends

On the surface, handicaps don't get more competitive than the 24-runner Cambridgeshire run over a mile at the Curragh on Sunday. However, recent trends suggest the race will fall to an in-form three or four-year-old who has already won a handicap. Previous winning form at the track is also a positive, while none of the last seven winners have been returned any bigger than 10/1. David Myerscough's Satu was a good winner for his column at Leopardstown two weeks ago and he fits the bill to a tee. The 3yo looked something of a handicap blot on his most recent outing and so it proved, landing a substantial on-course gamble from 6/1 into 3/1 and running out a more comfortable winner than the official margin of 1 length suggested. A hike of 9lbs is unlikely to anchor him here and he's got in off a nice racing weight of 8-9. I've been raving about the form of his maiden runs at the Curragh and Gowran Park all summer, and now the value of his run behind Baby Blue Eyes and Anna's Rock at Leopardstown in July has been significantly boosted in recent weeks with both of those horses having won listed races since. In light of this, a mark of 89 does not look at all harsh for a horse that has always been well-regarded at home. His draw in stall 14 isn't ideal (a pitch nearer to either rail would have been better) but Satu has showed enough pace and tactical versatility in the past to suggest he'll be able to run his race either way. Though he faces 23 rivals, none would appear to have the scope for improvement that Satu possesses and many of his rivals have questions to answer - Absolute Image ran a shocker last time, Celtic Dane lacks the pace for the trip on this ground, Crooked Throw needs more cut and Emily Blake is well held on previous form. Satu's biggest danger could well turn out to be Settigano who promises to be well-suited by having Kieren Fallon in the saddle, but I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go close.

Pattern Horses

The second last at the Curragh on Sunday, the 5f Group 3 Flying Five, is by some distance the best sprint run in Ireland this year and it brings together a trio of high-class performers in Dandy Man, Benbaun and Moss Vale, all three of whom have distinct patterns in their previous form. Moss Vale is something of a course specialist with a Curragh record of: 22112 and will certainly benefit from having Kieren Fallon in the saddle, the only jockey he has won for in the last two years. Despite this Dandy Nicholls' charge hasn't been in the best of form so far this term and his best form is over 6f rather than 5f. If Moss Vale likes the Curragh, then Benbaun loves it with his record reading:2112211 and Mark Wallace's 6yo has won this race for the last two years. He was disappointing on his most recent start at Royal Ascot but has been given ample time to recover and I expect him to complete the three-timer here and he looks a value price at around 3/1. The drying ground will certainly suit be in his favour. Similar sentiments apply to the favourite Dandy Man, who was an expensive failure when just third in the Nunthorpe last time. Like many others, I expected big things from Tracey Collins' charge early in the season but on the evidence of his latest run he simply isn't as good as many expected. The fact remains that he's yet to win anything better than a Group 3 and has become something of a bookies' horse, failing to justify favouritism in 4 of his last 7 starts. 11 runners go to post on Sunday and Dandy Man has never been at home in double figure fields, with his record in such conditions reading:8214032253. At forecast odds of around 6/4, he should be opposed with Benbaun.

Form Lines

Beginners' chases run at Kilbeggan in the height of summer are rarely the hottest affairs, but the 2m4f event won by Corrieann on June 2nd has proved the exception that proves the rule. The three horses to follow Pat Doyle's mare home have all broken their duck over fences since, and the 6yo looks well-treated off 114 in her first handicap at the same track on Saturday evening. Corrieann had her most recent run just last weekend when she got within 3ls of the progressive Brave Right (a horse who should be up to winning a graded novice chase this season) at Ballinrobe, and she will find the faster ground on this occasion much more to her liking. Her four wins have all come on good going or faster and with credible opposition thin on the ground (top-weight and course specialist Il En Reve looks the main threat but he was beaten out of sight last time), she looks sure to go close under Davy Russell.

Killarney Sunday

Much of the Killarney card is forgettable stuff, but the Ross Golf Club Hurdle, a 2m4f conditions event for four-year-olds and upwards, has attracted a very interesting entry including a quartet of horses rated more than 130. Smart novice Field Commander is lumbered with top-weight of 11-10 and appears to have a big task on his hands, conceding at least 3lbs to all but one of his rivals. However, a number of those more experienced performers have questions to answer and Michael Hourigan's progressive 5yo could well complete the four-timer. Ansar is the tissue favourite and has a mark of 138 but the 11yo is a complete Galway specialist and rarely achieves the same level of form away from his beloved Ballybrit. Eric McNamara won a Grade 1 with Strangely Brown in June 2006 and he'd be a the one they all have to beat if returning to his best but the fact that he's been beaten out of sight off on the flat off marks in the low seventies on his last two outings suggests he's not the horse he was. Mounthenry has been very disappointing over fences and the recent application of blinkers seems to confirm his wayward tendencies. His best hurdles form is over shorter distances and on softer ground. The biggest danger to Field Commander could well be Serve Time who has a fine record outside handicap company (3 wins and a second from 4 starts) but his latest run in the Galway Hurdle was a poor one. Field Commander, on the other hand, produced the best run of his career last time when beating the talented Jadanli, giving that rival 6lbs, and he is already proven at the track. He's something of an underrated horse that often goes off at a bigger price than he deserves to and there are certainly a number of high-profile rivals in opposition to ensure he won't be too short here. I expect him to be winning graded novices later on and it that's to be the case he should be winning this.

Meeting Review - Dundalk, Sunday 26th August

Positives: Declan McDonogh went for a very narrow gap up the rail on Mr Medici in the 7f 2yo maiden won by Leandros, only to be denied by a determined Kieren Fallon on Pyrenees. McDonogh's mount ran on well when switched to the outside but was never going to catch the winner who had already flown. The Medicean colt will be hard to beat in his next run in a maiden, provided he gets a sound surface. Rainbow Rising endured a nightmare passage before getting up in the dying strides to land the valuable Mourne Handicap and he can be rated better than the bare margin of victory. This was his second premier handicap win of the season and he could well make it three before the year's out.

Pointers: This was the first card on the all-weather in Ireland and by far the most pleasing aspect of the meeting was the fact that the best horses were coming out on top. There appeared to be no pace bias on the track and both soft and fast ground horses both seemed at home on it. Doubtless bias and specialists will emerge as the season goes on but for the moment, it should pay to try to find the best horse. Over at Ballinrobe, Brave Right continued his ascendancy in the novice chasing sphere. The 6yo travelled smoothly throughout and despite making a bad mistake two out, he back on the bridle in a matter of strides and went on to win in the manner of smart horse. He'll be competitive in graded novice events later on if his jumping holds up.

Tony Keenan