01
Sep 2007
Past Trends
On the surface, handicaps don't get more competitive than the
24-runner Cambridgeshire run over a mile at the Curragh on Sunday.
However, recent trends suggest the race will fall to an in-form
three or four-year-old who has already won a handicap. Previous
winning form at the track is also a positive, while none of the last
seven winners have been returned any bigger than 10/1. David
Myerscough's Satu was a good
winner for his column at Leopardstown two weeks ago and he fits the
bill to a tee. The 3yo looked something of a handicap blot on his
most recent outing and so it proved, landing a substantial on-course
gamble from 6/1 into 3/1 and running out a more comfortable winner
than the official margin of 1 length suggested. A hike of 9lbs is
unlikely to anchor him here and he's got in off a nice racing weight
of 8-9. I've been raving about the form of his maiden runs at the
Curragh and Gowran Park all summer, and now the value of his run
behind Baby Blue Eyes and Anna's Rock at Leopardstown in July has
been significantly boosted in recent weeks with both of those horses
having won listed races since. In light of this, a mark of 89 does
not look at all harsh for a horse that has always been well-regarded
at home. His draw in stall 14 isn't ideal (a pitch nearer to either
rail would have been better) but Satu has showed enough pace and
tactical versatility in the past to suggest he'll be able to run his
race either way. Though he faces 23 rivals, none would appear to
have the scope for improvement that Satu possesses and many of his
rivals have questions to answer - Absolute Image ran a shocker last
time, Celtic Dane lacks the pace for the trip on this ground,
Crooked Throw needs more cut and Emily Blake is well held on
previous form. Satu's biggest danger could well turn out to be
Settigano who promises to be well-suited by having Kieren Fallon in
the saddle, but I'll be disappointed if he doesn't go close.
Pattern Horses
The second last at the Curragh on Sunday, the 5f Group 3 Flying
Five, is by some distance the best sprint run in Ireland this year
and it brings together a trio of high-class performers in Dandy Man,
Benbaun and Moss Vale, all three
of whom have distinct patterns in their previous form. Moss Vale is
something of a course specialist with a Curragh record of: 22112 and
will certainly benefit from having Kieren Fallon in the saddle, the
only jockey he has won for in the last two years. Despite this Dandy
Nicholls' charge hasn't been in the best of form so far this term
and his best form is over 6f rather than 5f. If Moss Vale likes the
Curragh, then Benbaun loves it with his record reading:2112211 and
Mark Wallace's 6yo has won this race for the last two years. He was
disappointing on his most recent start at Royal Ascot but has been
given ample time to recover and I expect him to complete the
three-timer here and he looks a value price at around 3/1. The
drying ground will certainly suit be in his favour. Similar
sentiments apply to the favourite Dandy Man, who was an expensive
failure when just third in the Nunthorpe last time. Like many
others, I expected big things from Tracey Collins' charge early in
the season but on the evidence of his latest run he simply isn't as
good as many expected. The fact remains that he's yet to win
anything better than a Group 3 and has become something of a
bookies' horse, failing to justify favouritism in 4 of his last 7
starts. 11 runners go to post on Sunday and Dandy Man has never been
at home in double figure fields, with his record in such conditions
reading:8214032253. At forecast odds of around 6/4, he should be
opposed with Benbaun.
Form Lines
Beginners' chases run at Kilbeggan in the height of summer are
rarely the hottest affairs, but the 2m4f event won by Corrieann
on June 2nd has proved the exception that proves the rule. The three
horses to follow Pat Doyle's mare home have all broken their duck
over fences since, and the 6yo looks well-treated off 114 in her
first handicap at the same track on Saturday evening. Corrieann had
her most recent run just last weekend when she got within 3ls of the
progressive Brave Right (a horse who should be up to winning a
graded novice chase this season) at Ballinrobe, and she will find
the faster ground on this occasion much more to her liking. Her four
wins have all come on good going or faster and with credible
opposition thin on the ground (top-weight and course specialist Il
En Reve looks the main threat but he was beaten out of sight last
time), she looks sure to go close under Davy Russell.
Killarney Sunday
Much of the Killarney card is forgettable stuff, but the Ross
Golf Club Hurdle, a 2m4f conditions event for four-year-olds and
upwards, has attracted a very interesting entry including a quartet
of horses rated more than 130. Smart novice Field
Commander is lumbered with top-weight of 11-10 and
appears to have a big task on his hands, conceding at least 3lbs to
all but one of his rivals. However, a number of those more
experienced performers have questions to answer and Michael
Hourigan's progressive 5yo could well complete the four-timer. Ansar
is the tissue favourite and has a mark of 138 but the 11yo is a
complete Galway specialist and rarely achieves the same level of
form away from his beloved Ballybrit. Eric McNamara won a Grade 1
with Strangely Brown in June 2006 and he'd be a the one they all
have to beat if returning to his best but the fact that he's been
beaten out of sight off on the flat off marks in the low seventies
on his last two outings suggests he's not the horse he was.
Mounthenry has been very disappointing over fences and the recent
application of blinkers seems to confirm his wayward tendencies. His
best hurdles form is over shorter distances and on softer ground.
The biggest danger to Field Commander could well be Serve Time who
has a fine record outside handicap company (3 wins and a second from
4 starts) but his latest run in the Galway Hurdle was a poor one.
Field Commander, on the other hand, produced the best run of his
career last time when beating the talented Jadanli, giving that
rival 6lbs, and he is already proven at the track. He's something of
an underrated horse that often goes off at a bigger price than he
deserves to and there are certainly a number of high-profile rivals
in opposition to ensure he won't be too short here. I expect him to
be winning graded novices later on and it that's to be the case he
should be winning this.
Meeting Review - Dundalk,
Sunday 26th August
Positives: Declan McDonogh went for a very narrow gap up
the rail on Mr Medici in the 7f
2yo maiden won by Leandros, only to be denied by a determined Kieren
Fallon on Pyrenees. McDonogh's mount ran on well when switched to
the outside but was never going to catch the winner who had already
flown. The Medicean colt will be hard to beat in his next run in a
maiden, provided he gets a sound surface. Rainbow
Rising endured a nightmare passage before getting up in
the dying strides to land the valuable Mourne Handicap and he can be
rated better than the bare margin of victory. This was his second
premier handicap win of the season and he could well make it three
before the year's out.
Pointers: This was the first card on the all-weather in
Ireland and by far the most pleasing aspect of the meeting was the
fact that the best horses were coming out on top. There appeared to
be no pace bias on the track and both soft and fast ground horses
both seemed at home on it. Doubtless bias and specialists will
emerge as the season goes on but for the moment,
it should pay to try to find the best horse. Over at
Ballinrobe, Brave Right
continued his ascendancy in the novice chasing sphere. The 6yo
travelled smoothly throughout and despite making a bad mistake two
out, he back on the bridle in a matter of strides and went on to win
in the manner of smart horse. He'll be
competitive in graded novice events later on if his jumping holds up.
Tony
Keenan
|