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Irish Oaks
Weekend 14 July 2007
Following persistent rainfall,
officials at the Curragh already knew by mid-week that the racing
surface at HQ could not sustain a pair of weekend fixtures and
decided to pull the plug on Saturday's planned meeting. This
abandonment should have sent off alarm bells with punters as the
ground for Sunday's card, which now includes both of the previous
day's features, is sure not only to be soft but indeed to border on
the unraceable. This is not to say that the eight race card is
unappealing from a punting perspective, as there are many declared
runners who will thrive in such conditions and it is imperative that
we focus on such animals.
The Rockingham is Ireland's top 5f
handicap, and thankfully it has been rescued from Saturday's meeting
to be run as the first on Sunday, as my idea of the bet of the
weekend runs here. Adrian McGuinness may not be having the best of
seasons, but this is largely down to many of his prolific winners of
2006 being too high in the ratings this season, but he undoubtedly
has a well-handicapped horse in the shape of Rainbow
Rising. Formerly with Howard Johnson in England, the 5yo
ran a cracker on his debut for his new yard, going down by a head
over course and distance on similar ground. He is a horse who
habitually improves for a run, and going by the Racing Post Ratings,
he has come on 21lbs, 11lbs and 6lbs from his first to second run in
his last three seasons respectively. He gets in off 87 here, which
seems ludicrously low, especially as his old English form ties in
closely with the likes of Reverence (now rated 116), Tax Free (110)
and Rising Shadow (109). The English sprint handicap scene is vastly
more competitive than in Ireland, and he will face nothing of that
ability here. Ladbrokes were quoting odds of 16/1 about this horse
last night, and such prices should be snapped up as he's about a 6/1
shot in my book.
In a competitive race, there are
obviously plenty of dangers, namely Snaefell, Green Park and
Hogmaneigh. Green Park looks best of these, as he is proven over 5f
on heavy ground and the form of his latest win over Mecca's Mate has
worked out very well. His trainer, Richard Fahey, has a fine record
on his raids over here with a 29% strikerate in the last 5 years.
Snaefell's trainer also knows the time of day with sprinters, but he
has plenty of weight for a 3yo and the form of the listed race he
won last time may not be worth much, with most of his rivals
floundering on the ground. Hogmaneigh a progressive English-trained
sprinter with bags of ability, but he's something of an 'unlucky
horse' and he's not sure to want the ground this soft. A low draw is
vital at the Curragh over sprint trips, and Snaefell, Green Park and
Hogmaneigh all have one, but their racing styles may not be
conducive to take advantage of their stall position, as all three
are hold-up types and will likely meet a wall of horses when trying
to make up ground in the closing stages. Rainbow Rising, on the
other hand, races up with the pace and not only has a low draw, but
the best draw of all in one, and I expect him to grab the rail early
and make all.
The record of the three-year-olds
in the top all-aged handicaps over middle-distances this season has
been nothing short of amazing, with the likes of Aqraan, Tamimi's
History, Temlett and Vision Of Grandeur all winning valuable pots in
the past month. This looks set to continue with Right
Or Wrong in the Thalgo Ladies Derby, a lady riders'
handicap run over 1m4f. I was all over the Noel Meade inmate on his
seasonal reappearance on Derby Weekend, when the 3yo ran a cracker
in a hot 10f handicap despite being off the track for over 8 months,
going down by a length to the progressive Celtic Dane. He got just
3lbs for that, and he looks well-treated especially on a line
through Vision Of Grandeur (now rated 101) whom he beat on heavy
ground at Listowel last September. This surface will be no problem
to him, and though he is up 2f in trip his full-sister Right Key was
best at a mile and a half and the pace is unlikely to be searching
with amateur jockeys only riding. The fact that his pilot, Nina
Carberry, is by far the best jockey in the race only adds to his
chances.
The Kilboy Estate Stakes, a listed
race for fillies and mares run over 9f, is an interesting little
heat, not least because a number of the leading protagonists are
unlikely to handle this ground. Alexander Tango, the tissue
favourite and Irish Guineas fourth, has major questions to answer on
soft going having flopped badly on her sole run with cut as a
juvenile. All of her best runs have come on good-firm, and the form
the Irish Guineas has taken knock after knock recently, with
Finsceal Beo, Dimenticata, Truly Mine and Treat all disappointing
and Peeping Fawn's improvement almost certainly being down to a step
up in trip. Cherry Hinton is another short-priced runner, but she
remains a maiden after four starts, is yet to even race on slower
than good-soft and is by a renowned fast ground sire in Green
Desert. As such, I make this between She's Our Mark and Deauville
Vision, with strong preference for the latter. Mick
Halford's charge has arguably the best form in the race, having
destroyed a field of useful handicappers in the Lincoln in March
winning by 8ls on heavy ground. She hasn't had her favoured surface
since yet still acquitted herself well in pattern company,
especially when a close third in the 7f Athasi Stakes, over a trip
too short for her. She has been off since May, but we know the
daughter of Danehill Dancer goes well fresh having won the Lincoln
on her seasonal reappearance, and her yard have won with 4 of their
last 16 runners. A heavy ground record of:311 suggests she'll thrive
in the conditions and this dual course winner rates excellent value
at around 4/1. She's Our Mark ran a cracker last time when second to
the in-form Redstone Dancer, and looks a pattern winner in waiting.
However, she may just find this trip stretching her stamina and her
overall profile lacks the solidity of Deauville Vision's.
Redstone
Dancer herself takes her chance in the 7f Minstrel
Stakes, and it will take a much improved performance from one of her
rivals to lower her colours. The 5yo mare has been a textbook
example of the improvement being in foal can bring about, and she
has landed her last two starts, one a valuable handicap off top
weight and the other a Group 3, in impressive fashion. With her last
four wins coming over this specialist's trip, her love for soft
ground and a trio of course wins under her belt, race conditions
suit ideally and Redstone Dancer should be odds-on for this event
with questions hanging over her rivals. Evening Time is a filly of
some potential and will love this ground, but it's worrying that
she's been off track since last October and has obviously had her
problems. Also, Kevin Prendergast's other smart juvenile fillies of
last year, Miss Beatrix, Boca Dancer and Brazilian Bride, have not
trained on. Hard Rock City may pose more of a danger as he is best
over 7f, but a record of 0/7 in pattern races and 5/5 in all other
events tells its own story.
As mentioned here last week, Danehill
Music is a real mud-lark, with her record on heavy ground
reading:12121 and she has amazingly got her conditions again in the
9f International Stakes, despite it being the height of 'summer.'
She has the lowest official rating of the 5 runners in the field but
that may not be enough to stop David Wachman's filly, as she's just
about the only one who will get through the ground, and she also
loves the course having registered 3 of her 4 career successes here.
Decado is an obvious danger, as he too likes cut - his record with
dig reads:41113, with his only defeats coming on his racecourse
debut and when third to Araafa and George Washington in the Irish
2,000 Guineas last year. The form of his last run at Leopardstown
looks good now, with Danak, Lord Admiral and Quinmaster all running
well since but the trip is a question for him as he's yet to win
over further than 7f and is 0/4 at a miler. The extra furlong here
may well just find the smooth-travelling sort out, and he could be
ground down by the galloper Danehill Music close home.
Significantly, I've left the
featured Irish Oaks to last as I haven't got a clue what is going to
win it! I have no doubt that Light Shift is the best horse in the
race on what we've seen. Henry Cecil's filly quickened twice to win
at Epsom, once to cut through the field and again to repel the late
charge of Peeping Fawn, and this is something only high-class horses
can do. The ground, by far the softest she has raced on, is a major
worry though and she is passed over at the price. Peeping Fawn is
another who wouldn't be sure to get home on this ground, and there
are only so many hard races she can take having run in three Group
1s in six weeks. All My Loving is another who's had a number of hard
races recently and she never travelled in the Ribblesdale, though
stayed on well to take second. Four Sins will hate this ground, and
if anything I am drawn back to her stablemate Timarwa who refused to
settle in the Pretty Polly, and will be much better for the
experience. She too may well want better ground, and with so many
other and better opportunities on the card it looks a race best left
alone.
Tony
Keenan
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