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Derby Weekend - 30 June 2007
Weekend Banker
I have little doubt that Timarwa
is a high-class filly in the making, and I expect her to make the
transition from maidens to Group 1 company in the Pretty Polly
Stakes on Saturday. The John Oxx inmate was an impressive winner
over course and distance at the Guineas meeting, when running out an
almost indescribably easy winner from Profound Beauty, being value
for at least double the official 3l margin. The filly has since been
a very easy winner at Naas, giving the form a solid look. Though the
going was officially described as good-firm on that occasion,
significant rain in the hours before the meeting softened the ground
and I have no doubt about her ability to act on a soft surface.
Timarwa is a temperamental filly, but she will have the benefit of a
horse-whisperer to aid her in the stalls tomorrow and she is well
used to the surroundings of the Curragh, being trained just a few
miles down the road and if she loads without a problem, a bold run
looks assured.
Of her rivals, Peeping Fawn and West Wind look obvious dangers.
The O'Brien horse was a good runner-up in the Oaks but remains just
a maiden winner after six starts. She will be having her seventh run
in less than three months on Saturday and one wonders if she will be
at her peak after a hard season. West Wind won the Prix de Diane,
but it looked a weak renewal of a race that rarely produces a
top-class winner with the other leading fancies disappointing. She
has to travel for this event, and that could be enough to make the
difference.
Past Trends
The Scurry Handicap on Sunday is just about Ireland's best sprint
handicap and it has certainly thrown up some useful trends in the
past 10 years. Here are the key ones:
- 3yos have an AMAZING record - they have won 11 of the last 13
renewals - from 50 runners in the last 10 years, they've had 8
winners and 3 placed horses - 48% of 3yos to run here since 1997
have finished in the first eight home
- The other two winners were aged 4 and 5 - 6yos and upwards have
a shocking record - 37 have tried here with 4 finishing second and 3
coming third.
- In the 16 renewals since 1991, only 2 horses have carried more
than 9-3 to victory. 12 of those winners carried less than
9-0.
- 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the first four in at
least one of their previous two starts. All of the last 10 winners
had run that season.
- Look for horses that are unexposed in handicaps. 6 of the last
10 winners had yet to win a handicap (4 hadn't even run in one!)
while only 1 winner - the race specialist Avorado - had run in more
than 4 handicaps.
- 8 of the last 9 winners had won over the trip. In fact most of
them were very consistent at 6f - prior to the race the previous
winners had run over 6f 22 times, winning 9 times, finishing
runner-up 7 times and only ending up outside the frame 4
times.
- Course form should be view positively - though only 2 of the
last 10 winners had won at the Curragh, all had at least managed to
finish in the first 4 in a race at the venue.
- Kevin Prendergast has the best record in the race with his
runners finishing:173100033 while Dermot Weld has a poor record with
only 2 of his 12 runners making the frame. This is even worse than
it looks because 9 of those 12 runners were returned single figure
prices. English raiders, who invariably go off at short prices,
should also be opposed at their 15 runners have only managed a pair
of places. 6 of their runners were returned at 7/1 or shorter.
- The draw seems to fit the traditional biases at the track. If
there's a field of 17 or less, the low stalls are heavily favoured
and those drawn away from the rail will have little or no chance. If
there 18 or more runners declared the high numbers have to come into
it as they have done in the last 2 renewals. Last year, stall 17 won
from 25 runners and in 2005 stall 21 won from 21 runners. If there
is an 18-plus runner field, horses drawn in the middle third would
appear to be up against it.
Applying these previous patterns, the five to concentrate on
appear to be Cheddar Island, Lucky Kyllachy, Nastrelli, Gradetime
and Johnstown Lad. Cheddar Island's trainer has a fine record in the
race and is his sole representative from a strong 5-day entry. He is
well-suited by cut in the ground, and the same applies to Lucky
Kyllachy who has already won twice at the course. Mick Halford has a
strong hand with soft ground-lover Nastrelli who was an unlucky
loser at Naas last time and Gradetime, a 3yo who ran a cracker on
his debut for the yard behind Contest after a juvenile career with
Mark Wallace in England. If pressed however, my preference would be
for Johnstown Lad, who shaped as
it needing a drop in trip over 7f last time. His small yard have
been in fine form of late with all three of their runners in the
last fortnight winning, and the 3yo will have the assistance of
talented 5lb apprentice Davy Moran in the saddle in a race where the
winner has been claimer-ridden five times since 1997. Johnstown
Lad's age-group have a fabulous record in this event, and it should
be noted that he beat the 100-rated Theann from the Aidan O'Brien
yard in a maiden last term. The ground is the imponderable with him
but at the likely big odds, he is worth backing each-way.
The Woodies
The Woodies DIY Derby Festival Handicap on Saturday, a 10f event
confined to three-year-olds, is another race where past trends
patterns have been a useful guide. It's paid to concentrate on
horses rated in the 80s, with all bar one of the last nine winners
emerging from that bracket. Horses rated 90 or more don't have scope
to improve off their mark, and the 21 such runners to try their luck
here since 1998 have all failed. Fillies have a good record, winning
5 of the last 6 runnings, and we should look to oppose horses drawn
in the outer third of the stalls, i.e. the low numbers 1 through 4,
as 8 of the last 10 winners emerged from closer to the rail.
Finally, runners who are unexposed in handicap company do best with
only 1 horse since 1997 having had more than 3 runs in handicaps.
With this in mind, the four to concentrate on are Vague Notion,
Harper Valley, Potion and Right Or Wrong. I just wonder if the Weld
horse has been harshly treated off 87, as the field she beat last
time lacked strength in depth. The ground will suit though. Harper
Valley ran well behind a pair of subsequent winners in Temlett and
Tamimi's History. However, slight preference is for Potion
and Right Or Wrong. The
first-named was a ready winner at Naas last time, and she ran in one
of the hottest maidens we've seen in Ireland this year behind All My
Loving at Leopardstown. Right Or Wrong lacks a run this season, but
that is rarely a problem with the Meade yard and it appears Johnny
Murtagh has gotten off Harper Valley to ride him. The Murtagh/Meade
combination is a strong one and the pair show a healthy level stakes
profit, and this colt certainly lacks nothing on the breeding front,
being a full brother to the smart pair Right Key and Wrong Key. He
handles soft ground well, as seen when out-battling the now
101-rated Vision Of Grandeur at Listowel last September, and on that
form he looks well-treated off 84.
Trainer Trends
Jim Bolger has never been one to wrap his charges in cotton wool,
as evidenced by his aggressive campaigning of the likes of Finsceal
Beo, Teofilo and Alexander Goldrun of late. Similar principles apply
to his handicappers, especially the three-year-olds who almost
guaranteed to run a big race when turning up under a penalty after a
recent win. In the past 5 years, he has run 13 horses under such
conditions with an amazing 7 winning. One might expect such runners
to go off at prohibitively short prices as they were obviously
well-treated by race conditions but this has not proved to be the
case. Only 1 such winner was returned at odds-on, and a level-stakes
bet of e10 on each of these 13 runners would have returned a profit
of e149. Leeside Champ is such a
runner in the first event at the Curragh on Saturday, a 7f handicap
for horses rated 50-80. The son of Soviet Star has already won 3
races from his 7 starts this season, including a comfortable win at
Naas on Wednesday. The 5lb penalty here is unlikely to be enough to
anchor him as he has plenty in his favour. He is drawn closest to
the rail in 19 and races over 7f and a mile at the Curragh heavily
favour the high numbers while the softening ground will not be a
problem as he has already won on soft-heavy. The main danger is
likely to be Lady Power but that one is starting to look a bit of an
unlucky horse having met with trouble on her last two starts and
Leeside Champ looks a lot more solid.
Pattern Horses
After a cracking renewal last season when Kastoria short-headed
Collier Hill in the finish, this year's Curragh Cup looks a
sub-standard affair for a Group 3. This fact may not have escaped
Gerard Butler however, who opted to supplement his progressive 4yo All
The Good at the 5-day stage. The son of Diesis may well
be the outsider of a field of five but he certainly has his ideal
conditions here. In three attempts at 1m6f his record reads: 111 and
his late addition to this race and the booking of Mick Kinane to
take the mount suggests a bold run is expected. He has something to
find with his rivals here but that quartet all have questions to
answer - Alfie Flits ran poorly just 6 days ago and isn't the
toughest in the finish, Mutakarrim has yet to win a group race and
his hardly on the improve at the age of ten, Nick's Nikita is
unproven over the trip and the form of Peppertree Lane's sole listed
win has worked out badly with the runner-up Day Flight disappointing
badly since. All in all, All The Good looks over-priced on the
tissue at around 8/1.
Tony
Keenan
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