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Form Cycle Analysis
7 May 2007
Given
his profession, American insurer and self-help guru William Clement
Stone was hardly much of a gambler, though his belief in ‘positive
mental attitude’ is something most punters would be lost without!
His idea that ‘events tend to recur in cycles’ could be even
more useful though, as horses, particularly those that have seen
plenty of racecourse action, have a habit of re-producing their best
form under the same conditions year after year. Some animals act
best at a certain track, the old ‘horses for courses’ motto
certainly rings true, while others are best on a certain time of the
season or having had a long break from racing. Here are five horses
to note in 2007 when conditions are in their favour.
Arch
Rebel (6yo, Noel Meade) – Likes Leopardstown
A
consistent performer for Noel Meade over the past four seasons,
there may be more to come from Arch Rebel with his trainer opting to
bypass a hurdling campaign over the winter in favour of having him
fresh and ready for the flat. Backing the top National Hunt
Trainer’s runners blind on the level last term returned a healthy
level stakes profit, suggesting punters tend to underestimate him in
this code and Pat Garvey’s 6yo looks set to be his leading light.
Arch Rebel does well at Leopardstown with his record at the Foxrock
venue reading:2131241 and he also won a Grade 2 Hurdle at the 2004
Christmas meeting. Some cut in the ground is ideal, and he has only
once finished out of the first four in 10 starts on good-yielding or
softer. He seems best at 10f, the trip where 4 of his 5 flat wins
have come at. Exaggerated hold-up tactics have been order of the day
for Arch Rebel lately, and Johnny Murtagh seems to get on
particularly well with the quirky sort. Yet to win a group race, he
should be up to breaking his duck soon.
Modeeroch
(4yo, JS Bolger) – 7f Specialist
7f
is an unusual trip and horses often lack the requisite combination
of speed and stamina that races over this distance demand. Not so
Modeeroch, whose record at 7f reads:123151, with a level stakes bet
of e10 on her outings at the trip returning a profit of over e140.
Her three defeats are readily excused, having run into Champion
Juvenile Filly Rumplestiltskin when second in the Debutante, met
with interference when third in the Brownstown and failing to get
home on bottomless ground at Tipperary in the Concorde. Jim
Bolger’s grey won a pair of listed races at the trip last term,
and will be a potent force in that grade again in 2007 and should be
up to winning a Group 3 level. She likes left-handed tracks with her
wins coming at Naas, Leopardstown and Tipperary and decent ground
suits her best. Her trainer reported her ‘in great shape’ in a
recent Irish Field stable tour and races like the Brownstown and
Concorde Stakes should be on the agenda again. She would be of
interest if taking her chance in the Athasi Stakes on Bank Holiday
Monday, a Group 3 over 7f confined to fillies and mares, and likely
to be run on her favoured ground.
Osterhase
(8yo, JE Mulhern) – Summer Horse
Osterhase
seems to have been around forever, and it’s been some 45 outings
since the crack sprinter made his first inauspicious start at Naas
in June 2001. He returned to that venue for his seasonal debut a
fortnight ago, when a well-beaten fourth to potential Champion
Sprinter Dandy Man but his legions of fans will know better than to
give up on the 8yo just yet with the summer just around the corner.
Sun on his back brings out the best in Osterhase, and he has managed
11 wins and 10 places from 28 starts in the months of May through
August. With just 1 win in 17 runs at other times of the year, the
stats tell their own story. He is best on rattling fast ground, and
has never won in 9 starts on yielding-soft or worse. 5f is probably
his optimum trip but look out for him over 6f at Fairyhouse, a track
where he has won 3 from 3, including when beating the very useful
Stewards’ Cup winner Borderlescott last July. He will no doubt pay
his way again this term, though perhaps it will be when Dandy Man
isn’t around.
Quinmaster
(5yo, M Halford) – Potential Pattern Winner
Bill
Durkan’s Linamix colt completed a rare double last term when
landing two of Ireland’s top mile handicaps in the Tote Galway
Mile and the Cambridgeshire and the level of form he achieved,
particularly when winning the latter off a perch of 106, suggests he
won’t be out of place in pattern company this term. His 4 starts
in listed races have yet to yield even a placed finish, but
circumstances have contrived against him more than once and he meet
with plenty of trouble when a half-length fourth to Danak at
Leopardstown last time. He comes to his peak in the summer, with his
record in June, July and August reading:1231911, and he is yet to
manage a win in 12 starts at other times. His trainer believes
he’s best with a bit of cut in the ground, but he has yet to win
in 7 runs on soft going or worse including 3 spins over hurdles.
Certainly, he doesn’t appear to want a bog and may prove best on
genuine good ground. He has only once finished out of the first four
in 10 runs on good-soft or quicker.
Yeats
(6yo, AP O’Brien) – Best Fresh
Considering
he is entering his fifth season on the track, Yeats remains
lightly-raced having had just 13 career starts, something that may
be as much by design as forced on his trainer by injury problems.
The Champion Stayer is nigh on unbeatable fresh, with his record on
his first or second start of the year reading:11121111. His sole
defeat came when returning from almost a year off with the
career-threatening injury that denied him his place in the 2004
Derby, and even then he managed to run second on the heavy ground he
hates. Yeats has never won in 5 other starts so it is hoped that he
will head straight to the Ascot Gold Cup next after a hugely
impressive 5ls win at Navan last Sunday. That 2m4f event has seen a
number of dual winners in recent years with the likes of Kayf Tara
and Royal Rebel doubling up, and Yeats looks sets to take the world
of beating if showing up at the Royal meeting without another run.
Beyond that, another tilt at the Melbourne Cup seems likely but he
would surely need a prolonged rest to show his best down under.
Tony
Keenan
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