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Preview
15 September 2007
3.15 Doncaster St Leger
This doesn't look the strongest St Leger of all time, but it
promises to be a fascinating contest. Honolulu finished 2nd in the
Ebor to Purple Moon and is now favourite for today's Group 1. At
least with the favourite, we know the trip isn't a problem, but I
can't be backing a horse that was 2nd in a handicap at 5/2 for a
classic, even though it is Aidan's first string. Mahler won easily
enough at Royal Ascot over 2 miles (had Veracity in 2nd). After that
he was favourite for the Leger for a while, until his last run, when
flopping behind Lucarno. The distance was totally wrong that day
(12F), and he's back up in trip today. Fast ground will suit. He
should run a huge race with Mick Kinane on board, and it's hard to
see him finishing out of the placings. Lucarno won the Great
Voltiguer trial last month and had Acapulco, Macarthur and Mahler
behind him. His pedigree doesn't show much stamina and he has had a
long hard season. This could be one race too many for him. Regal
Flush is another horse stepping up from handicapping, for an in-form
trainer and top jockey combination. We know he stays, as he won last
Saturday over 14 furlongs, but he takes a huge step up in class
today and will have to improve a lot. Samuel is an interesting
contender. He's still a maiden and went in the notebook when
finishing 3rd at Newmarket, behind Tranquil Tiger. He ran on really
well that day. He was ridden to sleep a couple of weeks back, in a
listed race behind Tungsten Strike, but he does stay and he could go
well as the big outsider. He's one for the shortlist. Macarthur ran
a blinder in 3rd behind Lucarno and that was his 1st run back after
a 3 months layoff. He stayed on very nicely that day and you would
expect that there may be even more improvement to come. Ballydoyle
always talked this horse up at the beginning of the season and I
think this could be the one to upset the favourite. Soumillon takes
the ride and I just hope he keeps him covered up and produces him at
the right time. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Aidan had another
1-2-3 in a Group 1 and it may be worth having a small bet on the
tricast.
Selection(s) –
Macarthur 1pt
WIN (BF 9.8) and Mahler 1pt
PLACE (BF 2.82)
Woody
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