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Preview
27 July 2008
2.50 Ascot Cisco Hong Kong
Sprint Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Class 2 5F Good to firm firm in
places
1. Oldjoesaid - Is one of a handful
of runners that best form in the last 12 months have come in class 2
handicap and carries top weight in this decent handicap sprint as a
result. From a yard that does well with sprinters and under the
steering of Jimmy Fortune who is an eye-catching booking for this
yard he has claims here today. His best effort to date came in a
class 2 handicap at the back end of last season in a decent enough
time at Catterick when narrowly failing to give weight away on good
ground to a speedy type, and even though defeated that day showed
that he has plenty of pace for a plenty quick enough five furlongs
at this level. This is a stiffer ask then that day and with a strong
pace highly likely he may find a few that are better handicapped to
take him on with under this 7lbs higher mark for winning at Newbury
on seasonal reappearance. Should be on the premises if running his
race but looks slightly up against it here today despite not being
overly exposed.
2. New Freedom - Don't know to much
about this import who made a pleasing start in the Uk in the
Wokingham over a furlong more at the royal meeting and he looks to
have plenty of ability given how he hung that day and still managed
to finish in the first ten home. They will be looking to win a
handicap such as this in the coming months and is another that has
genuine class 2 form to his name where he has put up his best effort
to date, the handicapper have dropped him 1lb of the back of a poor
effort last time on ground that may have been plenty soft enough and
under the same quick conditions he could be the dark horse if coping
with the drop down in trip to 5F in a strongly run charge to the
line. Don't know much about the trainer but he has some decent form
over this trip from his stint in Dubai and is Interesting.
3. Northern Fling - Tightly tied in
with New Freedom on Wokingham form and may have been slightly
unlucky to finish as far away as he did as that rival hampered him
when hanging across the track and he may have surpassed the
performance he put up when winning at Doncaster earlier in the
season when he showed plenty of dash to win a class 2 event, that
was his best performance to date and despite the 5lbs rise in the
weights from that day he has proven to be still nicely handicapped
with that performance at Royal Ascot. The run he did put up at
Doncaster is among the strongest class 2 form coming into this race
and the time was of genuine class 2 level, The 5lbs higher mark
shouldn't be to hard to overcome when meet with similar conditions
underfoot as it was that day and even though he went well over six
furlongs on good to firm ground, he may find this strongly run five
furlongs on quick ground with everything happening a little to fast
for him.
4. Indian Trail - Another whose best
form in the last 12 months has been in a class 2 handicap and Dandy
Nichols has sent out a strong force for a race he won 2 years ago
with Machinist. This horse bounced back to form last summer / Autumn
with some very good efforts and it appeared that the sprint king had
this horse back to what was his previous best form when winning the
big sprint handicap on 2000 guineas day. The effort at Haydock last
year over five furlongs on good racing ground was a fine effort and
his best in the 12 months, however the biggest concern has to be
that was last year and even though he find himself 2lbs lower then
that mark when beating Judd Street he is yet to get to that level
even though there was some signs at York when staying on behind his
already flown stable mate Masta Plasta. He is very exposed and maybe
this is a downwards curve for the sprinter now so 2lbs shy of his
best in the last year may not be good enough even though it is 2lbs
less then the York run as well.
5. Matsunosuke - No surprise to see
all the horses with genuine class 2 handicap form in the last 12
months at the top of the handicap and this very exposed sprinter has
had his sights very much higher this season after running a fine
effort in a class 2 handicap at Doncaster behind Sunrise Safari.
That performance was his best effort in the last 12 months due to
his difficult tasks he has been set since running well in a group 3
sprint in which he was unfairly penalised. Still higher then that
mark today he ran his first decent race last time when dropped into
a class 3 handicap behind peace offering a race that doesn't look
anything special and the time proves that. May need more lowering in
the handicap and a turn around in the form to be considered here
today for a exposed type.
6. Soharab - Comes here very much a
sprinter in form and record a quick sprint time last time out at
Newmarket in which he was placed quite well forward and burst
through to land the spoils and the gamble. This horse is often
gambled when a big run is expected and should be noted in market
before dipping your toe in future. The five pounds higher mark may
make life a little harder for him as he takes the step up into
stronger company today and even though the ground and the pace of
the race are very much in his favour I'm a little unsure how much
more is to come from this horse that has ran very well at this track
in the past. Lightly raced enough to maybe draw further improvement
that has come from races over five furlongs he hails from a yard
that have plenty of decent sprinters and Travis Block has a decent
record on the horse (used to good effect last time out).
7. Orpsie Boy - Another horse whose
best effort has come at class 2 level when showing he is as good as
ever earlier in the season at Wolverhampton. Didn't show much at the
end of June when well beaten and disappointing of a 4lbs higher
handicap mark for that all weather win he has since had a absence
and returns on the same mark as that Wolverhampton win over six
furlongs. This is likely to be a much stronger run race then the
Wolverhampton race in which he recorded a very catching time for a
class 2 handicap and this stiffer 5F should equate to something
close to those six furlongs. Won plenty of races 12 months ago on
turf to dispel any concerns that he may be a all weather horse, he
does now look a potential group sprinter on the all weather in
comparison to turf and was just a well handicapped horse last term.
Has form at this track over six furlongs in a low class race then
this and may just struggle at this level of his current high mark
based on the all weather performances of late.
8. Aegean Dancer - These colours
have been going well lately and Brian Smart is always a sprinter to
take note of in handicaps for sprinters I feel. Usually more blessed
with the younger brigade these days he does have some older horses
that can run really well on their day and this horse is one of
those. His best effort in the last 12 months was over the minimum
trip at Wolverhampton in a class 3 handicaps in which he put up a
strong performance there and could well progress on that surface
having had only a handful of runs. His turf form however has seemly
tailed off since beating Ebraam at Dunstall park and having his turf
mark raised up to 97, dropped 1lb now he is yet to show much sparkle
this season over five furlongs and may find this stiffer five
furlongs with a big strong pace beyond his stamina.
9. Beroliver - Another that has
record his best effort in a class 2 event with a victory at this
years Chester cup meeting and that performance when bouncing out and
making all was a fairly decent effort, the time could have been
better for the conditions they ran at and it was a case of a well
judged ride from the front in which he was judged to perfection.
This track and the shape of the race will be totally different to
that victory and he is starting to look quite exposed as a
handicapper these days now and the likely hood is that he won't last
home at the pace he needs to go to win this race on a stiffer track
that Chester. The run at York when in form was his best effort since
that wins in May and even then it wasn't the most solid of handicaps
from a time perspective.
10. Siren's Gift - Andrew Balding
runners have to be of interest at this venue having won many
handicaps down the years and this filly is long overdue a big run in
a handicap such as this having shaped with so much promise in the
earlier parts of last season. The narrow win in a class 4 in
conditions stake race has been her only success in the last 12
months and rates as her best performance on the clock and in terms
of performances at a certain level and she has seemly paid the price
for that win and the proximity of her finishing position in a fairly
average group 3 at Newbury where they went no real pace at all and
finished in a heap. She has been knocking on the door of late and
her most recent performance over course and distance was a very good
time and effort on rain soft ground and with conditions more in her
favour today she may have a slim chance of reversing the form of
that last race even though a drop in class after shedding a few more
lbs looks to be the most beneficial way to getting her to win again.
11. Fydoor - A winner of a class 2
event this season when just holding of the late charge of intrepid
Jack who may have been slightly ring rusty when starting of his
campaign and that could well have been the winning on the turf for
this horse that is highly regarded as a all weather specialist.
However his best effort in the last year came last time at Beverley
of today's mark where he went very well under top weight to finish
2.25L behind the very consistent Evermanforhimself and strike up the
band who meets on slightly better terms today. Tony Culhane returns
to the saddle on this horse he had a good relationship with prior to
the ban he entailed and William Haggas can do no wrong this season
in races such as this so he is a interesting runner. The Visor is
back on and he has gone well in this race in the past and a strong
pace should see him go well over this less stiff five then Beverley.
12. Ebraam - A all weather horse in
the main but surprisingly his best performance came at the July
Meeting this year when he finished 3rd to Kay Two in a bunch finish
this month and comes into this race today very much in form and of
the same handicap mark. The race at Newmarket wasn't anything
special and they did finish more or less in heap. The drop down in
class after being outclassed at this level almost done the trick and
would have installed some confidence in this horse that is well
suited to quick ground and should enjoy this end to end gallop.
However he does still look up against it on turf despite the change
around in his form in the last week or so and maybe that piece of
form wont stack up too strongly on the basis of this level and the
rivals he meet here today.
13. Strike up the Band - Has been
knocking on the door for some time now and was only narrowly denied
last time by a rapidly improving opponent and could well gain
compensation today for Dandy Nichols and co in this more valuable
handicap. Maybe given a slightly easy time on the front end in a
small field may have helped this horse who was ridden by Frank
Dettori to a tee, and I can't imagine that this was the target for
the horse given the booking last time and how it ran trying its
heart out all the way to the line. The time of that sprint over this
course and distance was very good and the winner is likely to be in
pattern races from now on so there is reason to believe he has a
strong chance at the weights today with this former smart listed
sprinter having tumbled down the weights. Only 1lb higher today and
with Aiden Nichols on board he could finally win again. The biggest
concern has to be the conditions underfoot today as he showed plenty
of dash with cut underfoot and has failed to dictate on Quick ground
in the past in big fields.
14. Tabaret - Looks to have finally
overcome the hard tasks of when heavily rated for listed win as a
youngster and is up against at the weights with strike up the band
based on the form that they achieved at that young age. It is no
surprise to have seen both end up in handicaps to earn their keeps
and this is by far more this horse level if not the Nichols horse as
well. Improved on his Redcar win over six furlongs with a solid
performance at Sandown where he was helped the high draw to chase
home Crimson Fern who has confirmed the form with Strike up the Band
since and the time of that race was good with Strike up the Band
setting fast fractions to try and overcome the negative draw. Its to
be seen if that form will hold up between the runners in this race
today and on a more evenly based galloping track he may just
struggle to last it out pace wise to land the spoils in this race
despite staying further then five furlongs. Ground should suit and a
fairly decent effort is expected of the same handicap weight as that
Sandown run.
15. Cake - Brings Listed form in to
this race as her best recent form for Richard Hannon and Patrick
Hills who offsets a further 3lbs of the back of this horse that
gains further enhancements at the weights being a 3yo taking on her
elders. Whether she can stay clam being surrounded by colts and
geldings of the older variety is to be seen but she has been dropped
in the handicap by 5lbs since putting a ok performance up behind the
winner of this last year at Kempton in the Achilles Stakes . That
performance was her best effort in the last 12 months having been
set some stiff tasks by connections since her two year old days and
she may still be in the grip of the handicapper here against her
elders having shown considerably little. She has shown up well on
the all weather on both starts and it maybe that she is better
suited to that surface then turf after showing little last time in
Handicap Company of this current mark (Sharp track should have
suited).
16. Northern Empire - Best form in
the last few runs came at Epsom in which he was a also run not
beaten that far and maybe flattered by the finishing position in
that handicap where I felt a few runners didn't give their best
showing. He has form further back in the year that he is better
judged on and that has to be his win at Kempton earlier in the
season of a 6lbs lower mark on the all weather and the handicapper
who has taken a dim view of his all weather form has left him with
no option but to test handicaps such as this as he started of his
turf campaign off 94 a 9lb higher mark then the victory recorded on
his favoured surface. Starting to drop down the weights again he
needs to shed a few more pounds before being given a easier test of
stamina having done all his winning on sharper 5F and there will be
no hiding places for him today in a race with a strong pace.
17. Holbeck Ghyll - Winner of the
Epsom Dash and proved that day he is one of the paces sprinters in
training in that handicap having knocked on the door in previous
years and even though it was a top handicap I don't rate the form of
that race to strongly and he is better judged on the fine effort he
put up at Kempton when beating a decent sprinter over six furlongs
that day, proving that he has stamina as well as pace to win over
sprint trips. He should see out this charge over five furlongs with
the strong pace involved across the field and even though he is
11lbs higher then when winning at Kempton (very much a good thing)
he has proven to hold his form with in this level and that time in
the class 4 handicap at Kempton was a hot one and he is better on
Turf. Interesting jockey booking offsetting the penalty from the
Dash.
18. Invincible Force - Can be very
much hit and miss and looked set to have a profitable campaign when
flashing home over five furlongs at Wolverhampton back in November
behind the useful Chief Editor and then missed the break next time
out when disappointing behind Aegean Dancer over the same course and
distance next time out. Has taken his time to re-find his feet this
season with a no goer at the Chester Cup meeting and then a improved
effort over five furlongs at his favoured Haydock track behind
Fydoor. The most recent effort when trying to run the finish out of
his rivals in testing ground was his best effort for some time and
he is coming into some sort of form with that effort stacking up
well and very much looking like a well handicapped horse to strike
with in the remaining months of the flat campaign. Quick ground
suits but running style in a big field may see him going quicker
then he would like in this field.
19. Elharmi - Bounced back to form
at Goodwood when holding on for a cosy success over Safari Mischief
at Goodwood on Quick ground and very much needs it quick underfoot
so the conditions should be very much his liking for this race over
five furlongs today. His ability to stay further then five furlongs
is the major concern as they are sure to go fast in front in this
race and he often lays out prominent to the pace so his stamina may
just edge away in the final furlong here today. The all weather run
behind Little Edward was a good effort and it could be that
performance is his best to draw on and it could see him improve
further given the speed of the Lingfield track should suit his
action. Not the biggest of horses he has struggled in true gallops
on turf and even though his action skips of this fast surface he may
be in the grip of the handicapper again at Class 2 level with the
all weather likely to pay the bills in the more prominent future.
20. Safari Mischief - Reversed the
form with Elharmi at Lingfield from their most recent Goodwood run
and will be looking to confirm that form as they pair up against
each other again today and the Epsom run behind HolBeck Ghyll gives
us further clues as to how he ranks up against the best of these so
we should know where we stand with this horse in terms of chances in
this handicap today. His best performance on the book was his effort
in class 4 handicaps off a 9lbs lower mark then he is running off
today but he has shown enough form since to suggest he has
progressed from this level. The run behind Matsunosuke where he was
top weight despite carrying less because of the claim of the jockey.
That was solid looking handicap form and would have finished closer
with amore-experienced jockey on top. Has improved since that day
and only lightly raced for a sprinter, the run last time at
Lingfield after the Epsom run shows that he is still in form and
capable of his current mark.
21. Golden Dixie - Been a while
since he put up his best performance in the last twelve months when
finishing ahead of a progressive sprinter at Goodwood back in August
last year and now finds himself below that mark by 3lbs but with
another year under his belt and this flag flyer for the Ron Harris
in the last few seasons for a yard that does well with these types
of sprinters. A quick five furlong dash at his age may be just
beyond him these days and that was proven by the sharp six furlongs
at Warwick where he never really threatened to land the race despite
having the in side of the track to race against, he couldn't muster
enough early speed or a kick in the finish to land a blow and even
though more suited today to this track he will be staying on to late
and may need lowering in grade to get his winning sequence back.
22. The Tatling - hails from a yard
that have seemly forgotten how to train winners and it would be good
to see the old boy who has brought Milton Bradley so much joy return
the trainer to the spot light as a trainer. Has gone well at this
track in the past he is 13lbs lower then his best effort in the last
twelve months where he ran well behind Koster in a class 2 event and
the fact he is lowly weighted in a similar type of race just shows
the regression of this old boy. That race was in a big field over
six furlong under similar conditions as today so the return to form
over five in a dash to the line may just see him tapped for toe even
though he has been as effective over five as he is over six
furlongs, more recent form has shown that he retains some ability to
be able to win of this mark and over five furlongs, but in a ultra
competitive race he may find others holding their form better and a
weaker affair in a class 2 event may be when to strike.
23. Tom's Laughter - Is quite
exposed for a 4yo sprinter and is the 2nd string of the Ron Harris
Pair it would seem on jockey bookings. The class 4 effort he put up
at Warwick over a sharp six furlongs give him some sort of chance at
this higher level if coping with the drop in trip to five on a
stiffer track, and he shouldn't be to troubled by the pace they are
likely to go early on. The new rating is 2lbs higher for that 1L
defeat by Peter'S Island and he needs to improve to win of this
higher mark which is quite hard to see as he already looks exposed
enough to do himself justice at this higher level. May show up well
for long enough to claim a outside chance of a place but overall he
looks up against it.
24. Little Pete - has been in solid
form this season and ran well at Chester last time out when staying
on to finish 3rd and a return to his favoured quick ground should
suit him over this five furlongs, his best run was at Haydock in a
lower class handicap and that was done in a good time and no
surprise to see he has helded his own in tougher races since going
up in the weights that sees him running of a six pounds higher mark.
He has been held in handicaps since that day with some consistent
performances with things in his favour and may need to step up on
that performance to win this handicap today. He is still open to
improvement as he takes on his elders for the second time having
finished behind Bo Mcginity at Chester a track that may have suited
his rival more and is better weighted with that rival for this race
today and from a yard that always does well at this track, has a
outside chance if further progression.
25. Total Impact - ran well behind
Tarabet at Redcar two runs back and still kept on with credit in the
mud last time at York as that ground would have blunted his speed
and its to be seen how he comes out of that race with his chances
today in mind and a return to quick ground, His best effort looks to
have been recorded at Doncaster in a pretty poor class 5 handicap in
which he came through to take the spoils in the final furlong from
some pretty consistent performers at that level and clearly enjoys
quick ground over five furlongs and the time that day for class of
race was very quick so its no surprise to have seen him gone well
despite the 8lbs rise that has seen him get in at the foot of the
weights in what will be his toughest task to date. Whether he has
enough about him to improve further to win a race he will need to
set a new personal best is doubtful and a easier class 2 will maybe
be when he is ready to strike.
26. Fantasy Explorer - Hayley Turner
comes in for this ride to do the low weight on a horse that has
promised so much but yet to deliver and could well be on track to
give the Portland handicap a go towards the end of the season a race
that launched fantasy Believer to win several big handicaps for the
same connections and the best effort that was ran in a class 3
handicap at Haydock was quite a slow sprint and this stronger
guaranteed dash may not totally suit the horse as he has failed to
give his best under a very strong gallop. Finds himself 1lb lower
then when staying on to finish 2nd to Dandy Nichols sprinter and in
several five furlong sprints he has finished mid pack and failed to
live with the pace. A six-furlong sprint may be where they go next
where he can be wound up as he isn't the most exposed of sprinters
for his age.
27. Dig Deep - Hasn't been in the
best form since winning at this track and also going well in this
race 12 months ago and best performance since that race has come at
Pontefracht of a low mark of 79 in which he is still 4lbs higher
then for this race today. He is potentially better then he has shown
so far this season and this could well have been the target for a
yard that place their horses well and John Quinn will be looking to
get the best out of the horse under Jamie Kyne who could make him a
feather weight at the foot of the weight (if able to do 7 Stone
7lbs) and a strong gallop on this track should be ideal for the
horse who has much in favour. Hasn't had rattling ground in his last
3 runs but did catch a few eyes in the Gosforth Park Handicap and
wouldn't be a surprise to see him go in here.
28. Bo Mcginity - Completes the
field for a trainer that is simply flying at Present and this horse
that really enjoys the fibre sand at Southwell where he recorded a
very good time and effort in a class 4 handicap over five furlongs.
Is very exposed as a handicapper in general and is only 3lbs higher
then that mark for this handicap as he won at Chester a few runs
back of a mark of 80 on turf and has proven time and time again he
is consistent when dropped in level to around the 80 mark and this
is looking like a very hot handicap in which for a exposed
handicapper is slightly against him over a stiffer five furlongs and
even though lowly weighted he should find a horse who has to much
class for him.
Tissue Price - Fyodor 9/1, Dig Deep, Strike up the Band 10/1,
Invincible Force, Sohareb, New Freedom 12/1, Holbeck Ghyll, Little
Pete 14/1, Northern Fling, Siren's Gift, Tabaret, Safari Mischief
16/1, Oldjoesaid, Total Impact 20/1, Ebraam, Golden Dixie, Cake
25/1, Aegean Dancer, Fantasy Explorer, Tom's Laughter 28/1, Indian
Trail, The Tatling, Orpsie Boy 33/1, Bertoliver, Elharmi 40/1,
Northern Empire, Bo Mcginity 50/1, Matsunosuke 66/1.
Verdict - Fyodor should go well for
the inform Haggas Yard after winning at Haydock over five furlongs
on quick ground from a subsequent Group 3 winner intrepid jack and
the strong pace should be no problem for this horse who stays the
trip, it is a very open field and with the Mile handicap yesterday
suggesting it was a fair drawn race as they spread out over the
track to make their challenges the middle of the track should be no
problem for this horse. The pace seems to be drawn middle to high
with Invincible force and Bertoliver looking to take them along and
that will Leave the highly drawn Strike up the Band to maybe get a
easy time along the far rail and could see Dig Deep come through
like Laa Rayb did yesterday in the mile race. New Freedom is the
dark horse.
Advised bets - Fyodor
2pts win @ 16-1 (BF20's) + Dig Deep
1pt win @ 16-1 (BF22's)
Well Chief
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