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Preview -
30 May 2008
3.20 SKF Stakes Class 3
handicap 10F Good to Soft Good in places
The course and draw and Pace
A flat left handed galloping tracksuits long striding horses and
is only a fair test of stamina in comparison to that of the stiffer
galloping tracks. Horses that can travel well on the bridle have a
strong advantage of maintaining the gallop, as most big field races
around here are a true gallop. The draw over 10 furlongs has little
bearing at this track as the horse has plenty of space and time to
get into the right position before they turn left into the long
straight.
18 runners are declared for this handicap and that number could
well decrease by post time as the rain has no doubt got into the
ground so there could be some non runners around lunch time up to
post time, this could play havoc with the pace angle but as long as
Philantrophey and Granston stand their ground it should be sound
enough to give the hold up performers a chance on a course that is
fair to most running styles over this trip and this should be a
fairly decent pointer to these type of races through out the summer.
Class
A nice Mixture in this race of exposed and progressive rivals
meeting in a run of the mill handicap for the track. The classiest
horse in the field has to be Blue Spinnaker who bolted up here two
seasons ago on rain-softened ground that day and even though it may
have been more testing then it will be today despite the rain he has
to have a chance if finding that kind of form again under just
125lbs in weight. Often held up he has been taking closer order in
his races as age starts to catch up and the old boy may find one to
progressive for himself but his recent form suggests from the weight
today that he does have claims in a maybe weak class 3 handicap. Ten
furlongs is still is ideal trip.
There is a whole host of horses that have gone well in heritage
handicaps and class 2 handicaps in this race today, but in the main
the likes of Granston, Wind Star and Peruvian Prince haven’t held
there form and maybe are slightly on the down grade which is
dangerous because they could be handicapped to go in if finding
their old form. Mesbah and Philanthropy are two horses that have
also ran well at that level and are less exposed then My Paris and
Humble opinion who have held their form better then the other three
more proven performers. Both Mesbah and Philanthropy have to concede
weight to Blue Spinnaker here and given the latter form of late this
course and distance winner could well find it hard going against
that rival with the unlikely hood of a uncontested lead here.
The Kevin Ryan horse is most probably best over this trip even
though he has stayed further then this in the past and the course
win he did get to dictate the pace in so there is most probably more
reason to side against him then for him despite the fact that he is
on that winning mark here today, the run at Chester was a joke as he
cut his throat and the ground there would have been more suitable
for him then the give likely in the turf today, Mesbah may have a
better chance at the weights with Blue Spinnaker as Richard Fahey
horse is likely to find improvement and the fact that he has a
claimer on board instead of Paul Hannagan could be down to the fact
that they want to give him the best of chances and below 9 stone
will help his cause. The run at this track last time has been well
franked in my view with many horses from that handicap running well
and the winner more then franking the form with pattern form since.
He had no chance with the way the race panned out and for quick
ground it was quite a slow time overall, however with the form of
that race working out he could well reverse the form with Blue
Spinnaker and Fort Amuhurst if improving for the stronger pace and
the softer conditions which is possible on breeding. However given
the weights and the Mick Easterby yard having a strong hand, it
could well fall to the old boy.
Class Selection – Blue Spinnaker
Improvement and runs
Quite a few could draw improvement from the change in going over
this 10-furlong trip and they are led by Hurlingham and Man of Gwent
who catch the eye with the latter very lightly raced so far in his
career. Fort Amhurst completes the trio of Mick Easterby runners in
this race and the local trainer has a very strong hand for this race
with all 3 of interest. Fort Amhurst was a large outsider at this
track last time and may well struggle to reverse the form with his
well weighted stable mate, however the ground has changed very much
in his favour as those conditions last time will have been far to
quick for him, the trip is ideal and even though he does need to
improve to win of this mark against these he is very much entitled
to improve on that run and is a dark horse for this today. His
recent runs need to improve but this isn’t the strongest of class 3
handicaps so it would be foolish to discount him straight away.
Hurlingham looks to be the yards first string on jockey bookings
with Paul Mulrennan up for the ride a jockey who has done well on
the old boy in the past and the fact that he has chosen the horse at
the foot of the weights is eye catching and there would be no
surprise to see some steady support for this horse who will love the
ease in the turf today and should improve on his attempts over this
trip so far. The first run back can be discounted with him often
needing a run and this track should suit as he ran well in a class 2
handicap as a 3yo finishing only 8L behind Greek well in a bunched
pack (was higher rated then Lincoln and group 3 winner Smokey Oakey),
his performance at Haydock gives him claims since that decent effort
here.
Man of Gwent is another dark horse who has been gelded and has
the mark of a horse that will improve through out the course of the
season and the drop back in trip looks to be a bonus after not
staying behind Double Banded on seasonal reappearance, the juice in
the ground shouldn’t be a problem for this son of in the wings and
he could benefit from a more positive ride rather then he usual hold
up tactics. The other unexposed horse is Intersky Charm who has done
well on the all weather but yet to show it on turf, the slower
conditions in my view are not ideal having shown improvement for a
sounder surface last time out at Ripon.
Improvement & Run Selection - Hurlingham
Recent form
Film Festival and Philanthropy have both lost there way and Film
Festival didn’t show enough on debut for new connections to warrant
to much interest unless the conditions spring a change in
performance. Several of these have shown form good enough to win
this today and while horses like My Paris, Peruvian Prince and
Granston have yet to hit top stride they are not far off running a
decent race in a handicap such as this.
While it isn’t bless with strong form coming into this race it
still has a few eye catching performers who have ran above this
level in the last six months or so. The performance by New Beginning
is a prime example as the then 3yo made Classic Punch battle all the
way to the line over further then this last season on very quick
ground, the time of the race suggested that they didn’t go hard in
front early on and maybe the age allowance contributed to the
proximity of the form, these conditions today may have him
struggling but he has shown form to this level over the shorter trip
with cut in the ground, but would be more interesting when stepped
back up on a stiffer track and a recent run under the belt.
The closest to that form has to be Intersky Charm performance on
the all weather in which he isn’t likely to benefit for further then
a mile or the surface today and that of Hurlingham whose run as
already pointed out to seeking the buck reads solid enough for this
event today with conditions more in favour now then that day so he
holds the best recent form with the improvement of the condition
underfoot.
Recent form – Hurlingham
In favour
Not many horses have too much in their favour with the change of
the ground from the declaration date, but the one that catches the
eye is Vellied Applause who comes here under a penalty but very much
in form after beating Intersky Charm at Ripon last time. The ground,
the trip and the course should all guarantee that he runs his race
today and it is basically a case of is he good enough to win of this
mark today with him high up in the handicap for a pretty average
race win last time, not likely to have to much improvement in him he
is vulnerable here I feel.
Mesbaah is from a yard that leads the way in handicaps here and
has course form to his name, he could improve for the conditions and
has handled big fields before as well so he is another to note in
this handicap and maybe the better option. Celtic Change if staying
could prove to take a handy role with a strong pace on this ground
seeing him stay on from the rear, today will be conclusive to
weather he will stay this far.
In favour Selection – Mesbaah
Verdict – Open
handicap with the improving light raced horses maybe fighting out
the finish of this handicap, Richard Fahey and Mick Easterby are
taken to fight this out and I do find it interesting that the stable
jockey pairs up with the less exposed Hurlingham for this event and
not the proven Blue Spinnaker who has proven a good servant to jock
in past, Mesbaah can run a decent race for the Fahey camp and is
overpriced for a horse that should improve further this season. Good
pointer for future class 3 & 4 handicaps I feel.
Selection –
Hurlingham 3 pts win @ 20-1
(BF24’s)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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