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Preview -
23 May 2008
4.05 Newmarket Re-Offer.com 1st
June Breeze Up Handicap Class 3 7F Good to firm
Class
The classy Jedburgh has dropped right down the weights to appear
in this handicap having achieved group 3 & 2 form when in his
younger years and at the age of 7yo now, doesn’t seem to have the
ability of old. However this is a race he could well be able to win,
as he isn’t even of top weight in this handicap. There are several
runners in this field who have achieved a good run at class 2
standard and even though this is a handicap in which most of the
field have had plenty of tries, a few of them may still be able to
give a decent effort at that level in the future.
Phluke has fallen to a handicap mark 5lbs below his best and
isn’t over burdened with carrying weight in this handicap but is
very heavily raced and may well be on the downgrade now, while Plum
Pudding a course specialist and Dingaan have had much racing and
fallen to a handicap mark they could win off before maybe having
another crack at a better level handicap. The former may have it all
to do having to concede weight all round and maybe the Andrew
Balding trained runner is the one to have a interest in at this
track.
Class Selection – Jedburgh
Lightly raced and Improvement
Most of these handicappers have seen the racecourse on a regular
occasion and can be classified as exposed, but the handicap has got
a slight edge to it with the inclusion of Big Noise whose record so
far is of a progressive horse. Yet to run against classy rivals such
as this he is at the top end of the handicap and who’s to say that
he will struggle to take to this better opposition on route to
heritage handicaps as a improving 4yo. The course form he has
achieved stands up well and the time of that race wasn’t to bad in
comparison to the likes of final verse on that card so he is a colt
of some potential.
Of the more exposed brigade the likes of Plum Pudding and Dingaan
are the least raced of those and with each runner in the field
having had countless attempts on the going and over seven furlongs,
the marker has been set for Big Noise to improve past them all.
Lightly raced and improver selection – Big Noise
Recent form
All runners in this field have put up a effort that would have
them winning a weak class 3 handicap at least and the only one who
has maybe not quite rediscover the performances to take a hand at
this level is Ivory Lace who has won countless class 4 handicaps,
she is quite exposed and very unlikely to take this race if the
principals perform to their level they are capable off. The best
recent form has to go to Dingaan efforts in handicaps on the all
weather in October and his return run at Goodwood a track that
seemly suits his style of running, the others to hold decent recent
form are Compton’s Eleven who was touched off when making late
headway over course and distance 7 days ago and Mick Channon will be
looking for compensation from this gallant grey old timer.
The other one to mention has to be Phluke who continues to land
sharp track seven-furlong races for connections and came good last
time at Warwick when beating the disappointing prince of thebes in
class 4 handicaps. Each of these three runners have achieved higher
races then this that contest today and looking at the way the
weights are in this race, the Andrew Balding runner may be the best
weighted of them based on his recent form, but Compton’s eleven
effort here only seven days ago is a big clue.
Recent form selection – Compton Eleven
In Favour
The ground is likely to be fast at HQ today as the big wide open
course is known to dry out quickly and the dry weather in the south
east in the past week is likely to have dried the course out well
after the rain late last week. The horse that really catches the eye
in terms of things in his favour has to be the current favourite for
this handicap Big noise who has won on the July course twice in his
only two starts and has already proven that straight galloping seven
on quick ground is just his optimum racing conditions and it is
starting to look like he could once again progress up the weights.
In against him is Jedburgh who is another who seemly has quite a
fair bit in his favour despite his exposed and apparent regressive
profile.
Seven furlongs on quick ground has seen him run his biggest races
in the past and he is a course winner so there should be every
reason that he should run his race to the best of his ability. Races
such as the Cambridgeshire etc are out of sphere and now that he is
handicapped to win again he can give his owners some chance of
recouping the loses over recent years. The other that has quite a
bit in favour Phluke who is ideally suited to seven furlongs on
quick ground, the biggest concern for that horse may be the stamina
side on this track as turning tracks have seen him at his best and
for quite a exposed horse he may need his best to win of this
current handicap mark even though he is very much a horse to be on
side with this time of year. Plum Pudding may want a mile on this
track and should stay on well at a track he loves and Compton’s
eleven may want the ground to be slightly slower then it is as he
does hit a flat spot these days.
In Favour Selection – Jedburgh
Verdict – The feature handicap on a otherwise disappointing
Newmarket card, looks set to be a straight match between Jedburgh
and Big Noise as two totally different types of horses have live
chances of the same mark here. If Big Noise to come out on top he
needs to pull out more improvement which is always very likely to
happen with a horse with his profile and he deserves to be favourite
with very much in his favour, however the introduction of a group
winner in Jedburgh in a class 3 handicap such as this could see the
John Dunlop horse bounce back to some sort of form and shouldn’t be
discounted with much in his favour too. The Old boy Compton’s Eleven
may well be the tri-cast horse if he can get the better of Dingaan,
Plum Pudding and Phluke, Forest Dane could well claim a place as he
often runs well when up against it. For the winner however we take
proven form over potential form in this handicap today
Selection –
Jedburgh 3 pts win @ 8-1 (BF9-1)
Verdict –
Selection –
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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