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Preview
24 Apr 2008
3.55 StanJamesUK.com PERTH
FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE (2) (5YR +) 3M 0f - Runners 18 £35000 Added
Kenzo III - (16/1) - Looks
high in the weights at the moment but is a horse that is quite hard
to get to the bottom off as his record is very much run well or flop
badly, the fences last time didn't seem to suit the horse and the
return to more basic fences that he is use to should be a major
plus, and when he gets into a rhythm he can be hard to stop. The
quick ground over this trip should be ideal with his usual partner
doing the steering and the right-handed sharp course shouldn't
hinder his chances having won at the Galloping speed track of
Wincanton. All in all he should run another big race in these
conditions and wouldn't be surprised if this lightly raced 10yo was
to run a big race today.
139 - The win at Wincanton was his last decent effort and that
win where he jumped them all silly was a decent run for that level
and clearly he was above those rivals that day, his chance in a
higher class of race which he has done well in the past in, relies
mainly on if he retains the ability he showed and given that
performance at Wincanton he still does in the main, lightly raced he
may be slightly better over that shorter trip then he contests today
and may struggle to lead all the way in a big field over 3M.
Rayshan - (14/1) - Nicky
Richards I believe has a strong hand in this race and Rayshan is
very consistent even though he has yet to prove this far is ideal
with a fair effort last time at Aintree in which he finished a never
nearer 4th at the finish behind a decent type of Nicky Henderson.
Another that looks weighted up to the hilt despite the jockey's
claim, he has improved over the trip last time from his previous
effort against Ice Tea at Bangor and could have further improvement
to come over this trip today on ground that is ideal for him. The
course shouldn't be a problem even though a stronger galloping track
is usually more ideal for him, the yards have a good record at this
track and he could well be a leading hope for the yard.
140 - beat Silver Sedge at Newcastle the time before at Aintree
over 20F, which is ideal for him, it seems, but the big step up in
company last time was not to hinder his performance over further and
he remains in good health and has improved this term, the better
ground then those two occasions should suit him with good past
performances and as long as he doesn't run into a highly progressive
horse again he could go very close.
Petitjean - (8/1) - Has mixed
it up this season over fences and hurdles to quite good effect, but
isn't one to totally rely on as his jumping is sometime hit and miss
over fences and he is yet to run a decent race when his jumping has
been put under pressure at this level and remains one to have doubts
about. The yard have travelled a long way to give him another chance
at this level and that has to be interesting as they rarely go away
from this meeting without a winner. Has proven he has stamina for
this trip in the past and doesn't do badly this time of year despite
the concerns for his ability to handle ground this fast which is a
major concern today as we start to head into summer. Has run with
much credit on this surface so not a total loss, even though he has
enjoyed plenty of cut to good effect.
143 - Quite lightly raced at 8yo he could have further
improvement to come over 3M having won nicely last time out on good
ground at Ludlow beating a consistent yardstick. This is a much
tougher class of race but if he jumps like he did this day he should
go very close to following up despite the 9lbs hike he has got for
that win.
Antonius Caesar- (11/1) -
Another that is still quite unexposed and has a future ahead of him
over fences in the famous silks of his owner. Didn't hang about with
jumping hurdler he has enjoyed a fairly decent novice campaign over
fences, even though he has been kept away from any big races and now
he takes a big step up in class maybe needing to find quite some
improvement to win of this current mark. The trip and sharp nature
of the track is more then ideal for the horse and the major concern
might be the lively conditions underfoot with best performances
coming on ground, with much give underfoot.
Rating 130 - Based on recent runs he needs to find much
improvement to counter the better quality of opponents then what he
has been facing and with the ground potentially against him that may
be very much of the question today, I have been wrong before with
these unexposed types and he could well improve on the ground, but
from past races in which he has encounter a surface with no soft in
description he has struggled and that may be enough to have this up
against performer out of the frame.
Undeniable - (20/1) - Sue
Smith has enjoyed a brilliant Spring so far and it would be no
surprise to see this old timer roll back the years and go well with
very much in his favour in terms of conditions and trip. Loves on
top of the ground conditions he stays well and jumps with a degree
of fluency. This type of track is more then ideal and he often goes
well at this time of year. One of the most heavily raced runners in
the field, means he cant get away with things not in his favour and
the only thing that can stop him running a big race is if he isn't
as good as he once was and is rapidly declining in terms of ability
which is always a strong possibility at this time of his career.
144 - The run at Kelso when beating today's favourite Stand-in
Obligation was his best recent effort and that came on really soft
conditions in which he was getting quite a bit of weight in the
conditions, but that was a very catching performance considering
that ground that deep has often caused him problems. The potential
is there for him to improve on that run and given that his rival is
favourite for this he could be regarded as value in this handicap if
overcoming the weight raise which has to be the major concern for
the horse as he isn't getting any younger.
Ever Present- (20/1) - Second
runner for Nicky Richards who has a strong hand in this handicap.
Best on a soft surface he has only been tried on better ground once
and that was under extremely quick conditions. The horse that day
made very smooth headway under the conditions before being found one
pace over a shorter trip and that has led me to believe he wont mind
these conditions underfoot today and could improve for it as some
horses that enjoy really testing ground that is untraceable have a
action for better ground and he has to be of interest under a
claimer for a top northern yard. Out of the two Richards runners he
has proven 3M forms in the book and handles sharp galloping tracks
such as these.
141 - Went close over hurdles last time giving the impression
that he is returning to his best form and has a splendid record this
time of the year. The run the time before up against the progressive
Randwick Roar was over a trip that may have been a little sharp for
him these days and stayed on after making some mistakes in the
frantic early pace, this trip should help him out and with the
ground a possible to draw improvement from he looks to have a solid
chance as he looks weighted to go well against these.
Brooklyn Breeze - (33/1) -
Has become some what of a forgotten horse for Lenny Lungo and today
could be when he comes back with revenge for the poor season as he
has much in his favour with ground conditions perfect, nearing the
lower part of the handicap suggest he has slightly regressed as a
race horse this season, he is very lightly raced like most of the
yards runner for his age. Stays these trips and acts very well on
right handed sharp tracks he could well spring a surprise today at a
big price with the time of year he thrives in.
149 - The most recent efforts haven't been much to shout about
and his performance at Carlisle was most probably the best effort he
showed behind Vedelle, Sharp Belline and Ile De Paris in testing
conditions over this trip, the sharper nature of this track should
allow him to run a better race then that day and drying ground is
more then ideal, this run showed that the horse is in good shape and
after having races that don't suit, this could well bring him back
to his best as it stands up well at the weights today.
Verdict – Open
handicap in which Brooklyn Breeze has just as good chance as the
principals and shouldn't be readily discounted at a big price of
33-1, his main rivals to value in this race has to be Easter Present
who could easily turn out better then Rayshan. Undeniable is another
of the old guard to have solid claims, while Petitjean, Rayshan and
Antonius Cesar are all respected, while the lightly raced Kenzo III
could go well if getting into a rhythm up front.
Selection –
Brooklyn Breeze
2 pts win @ 33-1 (65-1BF) & Easter
Present 1 pt win @ 20-1 (33-1BF)
Well Chief
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