|
Preview
19 Apr 2008
3:40 AYR CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND
NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £114,020.00
4M 110yds Good to soft
1. Halcon Genelardies - Has
helped to give the handicap a tricky look to it with only 3 horses
in the handicap and this very talented stayer who stayed on to
finish 4th in the Gold Cup is bidding for revenge over Miko De
Beauchene. For the narrow defeat of top weight in the Welsh
National. Stays the trip under the weight well and for a 8yo he
isn't the most overburdened with racing and comes into this race on
top of his game and Robert Thornton has stuck by him which is eye
catching. Hard task to give weight away to some improvers he may
have wanted it softer underfoot then it is likely to be today.
Interesting runner with the form in the book.
My rating - 158
2. Miko De Beauchene - Victor
over top weight in the Welsh national and has had success since
beating Flintoft in battling style at Haydock and then reverted back
to hurdles at Cheltenham which he ran well over and has preserved
his handicap for this race today in which he needs to find
improvement to beat the top weight on these revised terms and could
well do so with the 4M expected to suit him more then the top
weight. The drying ground wont be to much of a problem having
handled it well in the past even though he is often tried more on
testing conditions underfoot and it may be more the course that is
his undoing as a flat galloping track wouldn't be as perfect as the
stiffer more quirky tracks he enjoys his best performances on and is
another who could be beaten by a horse out of the handicap that has
improvement to come.
My Rating - 161
3. Opera Mundi - Last seen being pulled up in January at
Doncaster behind the William Hill handicap winner and the trainer
has kept him fresh for this race in mind and he is often best caught
on first run back after a absence and has a low weight as the 3rd
best rated horse in the race which is a bonus as he doesn't have to
run better then his official rating. The ground is ideal underfoot
and the win at Haydock earlier in the season has worked out well
with some interesting rivals in behind and on his first start over
3M the champion trainer has only left the one horse in this race
today so the clues are all there and with improvement expected from
this marathon trip he has to be strongly fancied with the course
likely to be ideal.
My rating - 164
4. Old Benny - Is likely to
get every inch of this staying marathon today having won in good
style over 4M around Cheltenham and there should be no problem with
him staying the trip today from out of the handicap by 2lbs and is
one that should be strongly considered even though the stable jockey
has decided to take the ride on the top weight. Richard Johnson
takes over from the 7lbs claimer who has got a ride in this race and
our Benny is still looking handicapped to go well at this level in
my view and the ground shouldn't slow him up and is very lightly
raced. Trevor Hemmings chasers are always interesting in staying
chases.
My Rating - 162
5. Patsy Hall - Travelled
like a dream in the William Hill Handicap before failing to muster
enough speed going up the hill and should appreciate this step up to
four miles given how strongly he travelled in a championship race
and side stepped the grand national fences for another year of
chasing under his belt and Paul Carberry should look after him today
in this race which he is expected to improve in. The ground is ideal
for a horse that has placed in a grade 1 race and given he is just
out of the handicap he is looking well handicapped for this big
prize today and could well take this race for Tony Martin who isn't
a stranger for pulling of a handicap blot. Has fairly decent form
this time of year as well and hasn't got to many miles on the clock
for a type to win this race.
My rating - 166
6. Wild Cane Ridge - Still in
with a chance being just 3lbs out of the handicap as the top ones in
the handicap could be handicapped up to the hilt and Lenny Lungo is
always a trainer to never discount on the northern circuit and his
Wild Cane Ridge isn't the most straight forward of horses but has
got a touch of class about him, even though he is yet to really show
it at this level. Has been campaigned over hurdles this season since
pulling up behind Opera Mundi his mark has been left intact with
maybe this in mind and if jumping round with a low weight he may
improve on his only other attempt over 3M. Ground should be ideal
and he often saves his best runs for this track.
My rating - 159
7. Mon Mome - A lot of
peoples fancy in the Grand National and stayed on to finish a remote
10/40 and comes into this race 6lbs out of the handicap today and
also wrong at the weights with Patsy Hall on the Cheltenham festival
run. Stays this trip well and have plenty of miles on the clock so
unlikely to find improvement, which he may well, need to land this
handicap today. The tacky drying ground isn't likely to be ideal
either and his Welsh National form from two years ago may have given
him strong claims but he isn't as good as he was then and is on the
downgrade and likely to struggle from out of the handicap.
My rating - 151
8. Kilbeggan Blade - Needs to
improve on the runs he has put up this season with him being 6lbs
out of the handicap, which is likely to be enough to have him up
against it today. The drying ground the trip and the flat track
should suit him and he could easily run a place from out of the
handicap with this trip very much likely to improve his making, if
he can put a decent round of jumping he could well have a chance as
he is prone to the odd mistake.
My rating - 153
9. Flintoff - Was a leading
hope for this handicap until the top weight was left in and now has
a tougher task of reversing the form with Miko De Beauchene who I
believed he should have passed at Haydock last time. Suited to these
conditions underfoot and stays over 3M+ well he is a stone wrong at
the weights with his Haydock victor and that looks enough even
though the stable are flying at present. Half a stone out of the
handicap and quite exposed he may struggle to reverse the form this
time around despite having much in favour.
My Rating - 160
10. Openide - Ran on strongly
at the Cheltenham festival a track that he often runs his best races
at and he is certainly a horse that could do well with this step up
in trip given the way he stuck on over 3M 2F on a stiff track.
Stiffer tracks ahs been a major benefit to this horse so the flat
nature of this track might well be a negative on his bid for winning
a race at this level despite the fact he handles the ground and has
the recent form in the book to overcome the weight out of the
handicap and has many miles on the clock.
My rating - 154
11. Philson Run - A very
lightly raced stayer for his age having had only 17 runs for a 12yo
in which he has had a unlucky run so far this season since finishing
2nd in the Warwick staying handicap to course specialist D'Argent.
Stays well as proven when finishing 4th in the grand national just
over 12 months ago and is much better when the ground is on the
testing side and with it drying out he may struggle on the tacky
conditions it is likely to be underfoot. The fact that this handicap
has a classy rival in Halcon Generlardies in means it is likely to
be tougher to win then the Grand National at Aintree where he was in
the handicap and this results as much tougher even though he does
stay the trip well.
My rating - 156
12. Tommy Spar - Another who
has been around the block a few times and doesn't look your typical
Scottish National winning type as he is really exposed as a
handicapper and from out of the weights is likely to Marjory
struggle against the more classier rivals. The trip isn't likely to
suit him and the ground is against him, he needs to find some form
and looks like one making up the numbers in this handicap.
My Rating - 133
13. Ossmoses - Looked a
stayer with a future last season and has campaigned very lightly so
far this campaign with just the one prep run at Newbury in a exposed
handicap. Soft ground has been ideal for this horse and with the
ground not as testing as expected he may get a little outpaced in
what will be a strongly contested handicap ran at a good pace. Stay
well and suited to a flat galloping track he has often ran good
races this time of year and is very lightly raced which is always a
plus in staying races such as this. Out of the handicap by a massive
11lbs doesn't overly help his cause but he could go well.
My Rating - 155
14. Irish Wolf - Surprisingly
it is his first attempt over 3M having been campaigned over that
distance highly as a hurdler and is yet to rediscover the form he
showed over the small jumps over fences. This season hasn't been a
brilliant time for the trainer and his Irish Wolf is one of the most
exposed highly tried runners in the race, which isn't ideal.
Potentially well handicapped on the best of his hurdle form, if he
could finally transfer that form to jumps he could well be able to
land a big race handicap such as this, but needs to improve on the
form he has been showing.
My Rating - 152
15. Leading Man - Always
highly thought off by Ferdy Murphy and co and has yet to really
prove himself as a top handicapper despite often being expected too.
The trainer is always one to keep on the right side off around this
time of year and he has a good record in this race in which he
guided Hot Weld and Joes Edge to much success in this race. Double
handed in this handicap its hard to know which horse is his first
string with both out of the handicap and the claimer may well have
been used to counter the weight out of the handicap.
My rating - 151
16. Noir Et Vert - ran a
cracker at the festival behind High Chimes in which he is better
weighted with the second based on and is the more light campaigned
of the Ferdy Murphy pair to have a chance in this race. Looks likely
to enjoy these kind of trips given the way he shaped he has been
paired with a 7lbs claimer to try and offset the weight he is out of
the handicap. That could be a major boost for this horse that is
likely to improve for these races and has a very solid record this
time of year. Drying ground is a big bonus to this horse even if it
isn't likely to be quick enough by post time and any rain will only
dampen his chances. Best on a sharp track, this course is one of the
sharper galloping tracks in the country.
My rating - 156
17. Dunbrody Miller - has
struggled with the handicapper since landing the Topham handicap
chase in 2007 and comes here well out of the handicap and with
plenty miles on the clock so far. Would be a massive surprise for
him to land this race having shown so little in the way of form in
the past 12 months and is very much one on the down grade at the age
of 10. Does have form this time of year and stays the trip well he
isn't certain to appreciate the conditions of the track today and is
best dismissed.
My Rating - 134
18. Royal Rosa - Formly
regarded as the best horse Graham Wylie had purchased and never
quite managed to live up to the hype surrounding him and is one that
is very much out of the handicap in this race despite having
achieved some top form in Irish Bumpers when winning at Punchestown
back in April 2003. Has never been a horse that has jumped to
cleanly in his races he would be regarded as well handicapped in
this race if he didn't have fences in the way and those odd blunders
he makes seems to make this horse less of a force. The ground today
should be ideal with him running some of his best races on tacky
ground and stamina wise he has proven that he stays this far before.
Lowe weight will help and he has never been one to be overly raced
so could still prove to be decent enough to get in the money in this
race. Goes well this time of year, but needs to improve on recent
form where he was little disappointing in the Eider.
My rating - 157
19. Azulejo - Forget the
grade 3 form he showed in France, it doesn't amount to much and is a
waste of time in races such as this having been raced in the Topham
and Gold Cup this season and deserves to be given a race that he can
at least give the trainer a chance of landing a race with him.
Discounted from over a stone out of the handicap.
My rating - 118
20. Model Sun - Pulled up
latest and stayed on to claim a place in the midlands national the
time before Model sun is over a stone out of the handicap but once
was a very decent performer maybe with a chance in a race such as
this. Plenty of miles on the clock now and very exposed he has no
improvement in him and has to prove that these kind of trips will
help him pick up races with his stamina not assured yet. Ground
should be ok but looks up against it here.
My rating - 146
21. Another Rum - A regular
fixture in this race and best chance most probably was two years ago
when he came to grief early in the race and maybe will never land
this handicap now with classier rivals each year contesting a race
that doesn't leave its mark on the winner. Quite lightly campaigned
with these races in mind by his trainer a stone out of the handicap
is very much lightly to be too much for him to overcome today as he
exposed over staying trips and there will be better chances for this
horse when his sights are lowered again as he needs to improve on
recent form as well.
My rating - 147
22. Iris De Balme - Was a
gamble when landing a Folkestone staying race and is very lightly
raced for a 8yo in this country. Has improvement still to come this
might be beyond him as he takes a big step up in class from out of
the handicap. The ground is drying out to his more favoured
conditions and he is quite a fresh horse, he may be able to stick
around to be on the premises near the finish before the classier
rivals put him to the sword.
My rating - 144
23. Strong Resolve - Loves
this track but is too old and too heavily campaigned to have any
chance of running a big race from this far out of the handicap. Has
not achieved anywhere near the form he had showed 12 months earlier
where he finished 7th in this race from just out of the handicap. A
credit to connections and a grand horse, hopefully he will finish
his last Scottish grand national.
My Rating - 137
24. In the Loop - very
lightly raced and comes here in good form having beaten Dun Doire
with something to spare. The English handicapper couldn't really
have got him that wrong on the ratings with him being over 2 stone
out of the handicap. Could be better then the current rating given
to him with improvement to come he is effective on these type of
conditions and ahs form over 3M which is a major plus for the horse.
Lightly raced and with a light race he may run a big race, but is
too far out of the handicap to seriously be considered even though
he isn't the least likeliest victor from over a stone out of the
weights.
My Rating - 145
My Tissue - Patsy Hall 6/1, Opera Mundi 13/2, Old Benny 8/1, Miko
De Beauchene 9/1, Flintoft 10/1, Wild Cane ridge 12/1, Halcon
Generlardies 14/1, Royal Rosa, Philison Run, Noir Et Vert 16/1,
Ossmosses, Openide 20/1, Kilbeggan Blade, Irish Wolf, Leading Man,
Mon Mome 25/1, Another Rum, Model Sun, In The Loop 33/1, Iris De
Balme 40/1, Strong Resolve 50/1, Dunbrody Miller, Tommy Spar 100/1,
Azulejo 500/1.
Verdict – Very
hard to figure this handicap out with some many out of the handicap
here and with the inclusion of the classy stayer Halcon Generlardies
in the race who could well set it up nicely for his stable mate Our
Benny who is a lightly raced horse in the make up this handicap and
is just out of the handicap after landing the 4M at Cheltenham.
Opera Mundi is the sole runner for champion trainer Paul Nichols and
has been pulled out a few races for this since landing a decent 3M
contest at Haydock in the earlier part of the season. The Irish will
look to Patsy Hall to land the winning stride in this race and is
another who is only just out of the handicap. From way out of the
handicap by over the stone Royal Rosa may run a big race while Miko
De Beauchene has every chance over this further trip of confirming
form with the top weight. Often one of the best handicaps through
out the year and one I enjoy more then the English Version, the
handicap has been made more tricky with the weights this time around
but still there is value to be had and 10-1 Patsy Hall is a good bet
I feel along with Opera Mundi at the same price.
Selection –
Patsy Hall 2
pts win @ 10-1 (BF10's) & Opera Mundi
1 pt win @ 10-1(BF13's)
Well Chief
|