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Preview -
18 Apr 2008
4:00 AYR HILLHOUSE QUARRY
HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £18,786.00 2m4f GD-SFT
1. Three Mirrors – goes very
well this time of year for Ferdy Murphy and isn’t a rariety as quite
a few in the stable come to hand around this time of the year. The
ground at Ayr Has started to dry out in the last few days and
wouldn’t expect it to be too soft underfoot and more tacky ground
that can still play havoc to those nearing the top of the handicap
in terms of weight. Bounce back to form last time at Aintree behind
a interesting type, he won at this meeting 12 months ago and clearly
has a lot in favour today with the conditions underfoot very much to
his liking. Has by far the best piece of recent form and is well
respected in this handicap today.
My Rating – 144
2. Dear Villez – Well suited
to soft ground he was never travelling in the Jewson handicap last
time and may be in the grip of the handicapper as the Champion
trainer looks for improvement in the horse against some more exposed
types under these conditions and trip. Very Lightly raced for a 6yo
he has had most of his runs in the last 12 months since beginning
his career with Paul Nichols and may be an interesting horse next
year. Needs to prove that tacky ground suits but is more then
unexposed to potentially benefit from it.
My Rating – 138
3. Lucifeur Bleu – Has
struggled this season after a profitable one prior and could well be
struggling against the handicapper. For a 9yo he is quite lightly
raced and has had some problems in the past, however he found his
improvement after those missed seasons and may now need some help
from the handicapper to be winning again. However with the ground
starting to dry out his speed could be a interesting factor here
today and certainly is likely to improve on recent efforts for the
drop back to 2.5M after struggling to stay 3M at Newbury last time.
Needs improvement to win of current mark and may be just held.
My Rating – 138
4. Endless Power – Hacked up
in a average novice handicap at Aintree after the grand national and
has a lot more on his plate today following that easy victory. The
class of opponents is much stronger then that race and the tacky
ground aren’t likely to help him out either having relished the
quicker surface. 15lbs looks very harsh on that win and it may have
put paid to him winning again. This race isn’t the greatest class 2
handicap either but he may be handicapped wrongly on that form last
time as to me it wont stand up as genuine class 2-handicap form.
My Rating – 140
5. Edmo Yewkay – Winner last
time when narrowly holding out to Ela Re in a class 3 handicap over
2M at haydock and is one of the most exposed chasers in this field
if not the most. We know what we are likely to get from the horse
and he does seem in the best shape of his career so far and is
likely to be on the downwards curve next season. A win over Borora
albeit from the right end of the handicap is most probably his best
performance he has put up and despite the win last time, he should
be handicapped to go well in what isn’t the classiest of class 2
handicaps. The trip he does stay, but wouldn’t want any further and
he is vulnerable to a horse that may improve. The ground should be
ideal and makes the shortlist being in good form.
My Rating – 137
6. Lysander – Quite lightly
raced for a 9yo, but we know what to expect from the horse in these
conditions. Ideally placed over trip and conditions, connections
must have had this race in mind as he is likely to be in peak
fitness and goes well this time of year. Yet to get to the same
level he achieved over hurdles in this country where he was placed
twice at this level he has started to get his act together over
fences and could well hold his form at this higher level as he
hasn’t be overburdened with racing since changing codes. The recent
win over sparkling Taff has been franked since and he was well clear
of the runner up that day.
My rating – 142
7. Coach Lane – Hacked up
last time thanks to the clear 2nd coming to grief at the last fence
and is from a yard that has been firing in the chase winners this
spring since the Cheltenham festival. Stepping up in trip today he
does have the hallmarks of a horse that has been on the downgrade
since winning some half decent class 2-novice chasers in the winter
months of last season. The bounce back to form in a rather weak race
will have done the horse no harm and he may be able to bounce back
to some sort of form. However he has been heavily tried and the
possibility could well be that he isn’t as good as he once was and
needs to be a little lower in the handicap to win a class 2 chase
these days. Ground and trip are not certain to suit.
My Rating – 135
8. Jimmy Bond – A lot depends
on how much the last race took out of the horse in extreme
conditions at Ayr that day and the fact he made up so much ground
under such a welter burden of weight has to be a bit of a concern in
terms of today’s race. However he is a big strapping horse who
should be able to handle the weight and he does have a action
accustomed to bog like conditions. That piece of form would give him
one of the leading chances in this handicap if under those
conditions again, but with the ground drying out with the spring
weather finally starting to arrive he may not have it all his own
way. The ground shouldn’t go to much against him and he is one that
enjoys tacky ground and with the trip and course in favour he has to
go on the shortlist after the small rise in the handicap.
My Rating – 143
9. Another Native – out of
the handicap here and looks very much on the downgrade after some
good efforts back in 2005. Tacky drying ground has never been a good
pointer to the chances of this horse. The trip however is ok and if
he could find his old form he would have a chance as for a 10yo he
hasn’t had to withstand too much racing. Dropping down to a mark he
can win off, he has struggled to win at this level in the past and
with his best performance recently over shorter; the hope is he can
improve for the step back up in trip.
My rating – 133
My tissue – Three Mirrors 7/2, Jimmy Bond 4/1, Lysander 9/2,
Endless Power 8/1, Dear Villez, Lucifeur Bleu 9/1, Edmo Yewkay 10/1,
Coach Lane 14/1, Another Native 25/1.
Verdict – This is
not a vintage class 2 handicaps for day 1 of the Scottish Grand
National meeting, but one with some inform types in, so there is
recent form to use. Three Mirrors clearly loves this time of year
and given the lack of true class in the race, should run into the
frame at the very least and the 6-1 on offer at some bookmakers is
more then generous. Lysander was always going to be short given the
recent effort and the fact he has been laid out for this. Jimmy Bond
put up a cracking performance last time is very much one to consider
if not feeling the effects of that race. 11-1 is worthwhile price to
find out.
Selection –
Jimmy Bond 1 pt win @ 11-1 (BF 12.0) &
Three Mirrors 2 pts win @ 6-1 (BF
7.0)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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