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Preview
16 April 2008
16:05 Cheltenham MEARS GROUP
SILVER TROPHY CHASE LIMITED HANDICAP (GRADE 2) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
Winner £28,505.00 Good to good to firm Ground 2M 5F
1. Celestial Gold - Twice
been no match for Denman this season and was a surprise runner in
the Cheltenham gold cup. Top class prior to injury setbacks he ran
his best race when dropped into Handicap Company at Aintree and does
need to improve on that effort here today even though he is
potentially well handicapped if ever rediscovering his best form.
Not overly raced due to injury he has much in his favour and has
already won over 2.5M in the past. The track should suit more at
this level, but he is the second choice of David Johnson pair and it
has to be noted that Timmy Murphy has chosen the other horse for his
retainer.
My Rating - 153
2. Fundamentalist - On his
day a top horse and the winner of the now called Ballymore
properties hurdle a few years back, Never quite rediscovered the
form he showed over hurdles as a novice and setbacks in similar
mould to Celestial Gold has all but put paid to his chances as a top
class performer. Looks handicapped to go well given the company if
ever rediscovering his form, but he is now just a useful
handicapper. Never been to sure of his ability to jump these fences
he has struggled quite often at this track when chasing and may have
better chances when given a easier test of jumping.
My Rating - 150
3. Vodka Bleu - Another for
David Johnson and David Pipe as he showcases the talent he has at
his disposal with the son of the legendary trainer Martin Pipe. A
winner around here already this season Vodka Bleu is the choice of
Tom Scudermore and the suggestion could well be that Timmy Murphy
even though how much he loves this horse, knows that he isn't the
best handicapped horse around. However looking at the opponents, it
seems to me that all 3 of his runners in this are handicapped to win
races at this level and he isn't one to readily discount with ground
ideal for him, still would like to see him tackle 3 miles again.
My Rating - 148
4. Calatagan - Ran a cracker
here in the grand annual and that was mainly down to the conditions
on gold cup day of the ground underneath his feet. Best when stamina
is called upon in a fast run 2M, his stamina over further has a few
question marks to be answered, especially given the stiffness of the
track and quality of opposition to him today. Another who is quite
well handicapped on the best of his form, he does seem in the form
of his life at present. The ground however looks to lively for him
and given how things fell for him at the festival he is likely to
struggle in today's race.
My Rating - 143
5. Il Duce - has been
disappointing since finishing a close 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold
cup here back in November and has failed to complete twice here
leading to a few concerns in is he totally suited to this stiff
jumping track. Hasn't been campaigned to hard and has the ability at
this level as already proven (race hasn't worked out) this season
despite the form not stacking up. The strength of that handicap may
actually be mirrored in this race and he really strikes me as a
horse that will improve for these quickening conditions underfoot.
Looks likely to be a spring horse and a dry day will no doubt
enhance his performance for a yard that does well here and is double
handed in this handicap.
My Rating - 155
6. Ofarel D'Airy - The only
runner in this handicap for the re-crowned champion trainer and one
that he needs to find some improvement for to be winning handicaps
such as this. There isn't much they can do with this type as he is
handicapped to run in these races and may well need some help from
the handicapper to be landing races again. Ruby Walsh is here for
this meeting and will be looking to carry on the good form he has
had for the owner recently. The ground this quick doesn't look most
ideal as he is best with a bit of cut in the ground and I feel the
drop in trip isn't likely to help his chances either.
My Rating - 145
7. Yes Sir - former winner of
Market Rasen yearly showpiece and was a success story for his
trainer when first going over fences. Not as good as he once was it
is fair to say, he has struggled against some decent rivals since
being handicapped out of these type of races. Dropping down the
weights now are a rather baron spell, his trainer will be looking to
find some form that has served him so well around this time of year.
Better weighted with Vodka bleu on running at this track on New Year
day he is well suited to firming ground. This track has never
brought out the best in the horse as his jumping at time can be
erratic to say the least and he isn't moulded into your usual
chasing type. One to keep in mind of in the coming months over 3M.
My Rating - 146
8. Hasty Prince - Another in
this handicap who has lost the backing of his number one jockey as
Tony McCoy rides the other JP Mcmanus horse in this handicap. The
current handicap mark he has is the hallmarks of a regressive horse
and is similar to Yes Sir in this instance. The ground and trip are
more then ideal for him and it wouldn't be the first time McCoy has
picked the wrong horse. His recent form isn't to bad with fair
efforts against Howle Hill and that well known horse Master Minded
at Sandown. No improvement to come from this horse and we know what
to expect from him and with the ground ideal he should be involved.
My rating - 153
9. Stan - Shock winner at
Aintree Grand National meeting in their version of the grand annual
and benefited that day from the better conditions underfoot to land
the race from out of the handicap. The handicapper hasn't left
anything to chance from that victory with a 7lbs hike in the
weights, but he did have the class to pull of that run if you look
far enough back through his form. Might be a surprise to see him
follow up here and the longer trip on a stiff track may just slow
him up as he is exposed enough despite being in good health with
himself. Back to his best but maybe just handicapped out of it.
My rating - 147
10. Glenfinn Captain - the
choice of Tony McCoy for his boss and comes into this handicap
having ran a acceptable race to the useful handicapper Schindler's
Hunt who ran well at the festival behind the easiest winner of the
Champion Chase. That form gives him some claims of the current mark
in a handicap and has got some grade 2 form over hurdles. Never
really shaped with to much promise over the larger fences he has to
prove himself here today, but isn't the most over exposed
handicapper in the field so there is reason for him to show his
worth today. The trip and the ground are unknown's, but he has
handled better ground before and his breeding suggests he wont mind
this ground. Likely to improve for this company today he may give
the champion jockey a Cheltenham winner for his boss. Has failed at
Irelands premier jump tracks this season.
My rating - 150
11. Abragante - Ran with much
credit in the William Hill Handicap chase at the festival where he
didn't have the run of the race and given that the man who can do no
wrong at the moment has chosen this runner over the other two is eye
catching. Quick ground is ideal for this horse that is a strong
traveller and could have further improvement to come on this ground.
Best around this time of the year with the sun on his back he is a
bit quirky and has ran a mixture of races at this track and with
ground right should be suited to improve on his other performances
over this trip. Looks well handicapped and not overly raced
suggesting that he should run a big race in this today.
My Rating - 153
12. Boychuk - Ran a catching
race here at the festival after making a hash of a fence down the
back straight and stayed on very well to finish 6th to the clear
winner. However he didn't build on that run with a average race at
Aintree in a handicap chase and may be best returned to this track.
The ground is well suited to him and he stays the trip well and
given the performance at Ascot earlier in the season it would be no
surprise to see him run a big race today for a inform yard and is
about at the right mark in relation to his hurdle form which was
regarded as better then he has achieved over fences.
My Rating - 152
13. Which Pocket - looked up
against it in the Topham Chase at Aintree and was well beaten back
in 10th position and may be struggling over the hike in the handicap
since winning a lower class handicap at Chepstow the time before.
The quickening conditions should well suit him and he may well have
further improvement to come. However he has never really proved the
most progressive horse and is quite exposed over trips such as this
where he has only achieved average form. In his best form this
season he may have had his sights put to high. Goes well this time
of the year he is lightly raced for a 10yo.
My rating - 145
14. Kelrev - Was a bit
frustrating that we didn't get to see him complete over 3M on Friday
and is turned out quickly here after getting brought down and has
shaped well before when being brought out quickly and the 10yo is
one of the most exposed runners in this handicap over this trip and
we should know what to expect of this horse. Usually starts to go of
the boil around this time of the year his trainer looks keen to keep
him on the go as he is well handicapped returning to the form he
showed a few years ago. This trip is ideal for him and he has
handled good ground well before, but is unknown on ground that is
likely to be fast based on National hunt standards.
My Rating - 147
Tissue prices - Il Duce 5/1, Hasty prince, Abragante, Celestial
Gold 7/1, Boychuk 8/1, Fundamentalist, Glenfinn Captain 10/1, Vodka
Bleu 14/1, Stan, Kelrev 16/1, Yes Sir 20/1, Ofrael D'Airy, Which
Pocket 25/1, Calatagan 33/1.
Verdict – A
decent handicap on the card as Cheltenham draws to the end for the
season and Il Duce's Paddy Power Gold cup run could well work out
today for Top Cheltenham trainer Alan King and is the first choice
of the yard over the quickly turned out Kelrev. He's best priced at
14-1' which is more then generous. Hasty Prince could once again
prove Tony McCoy wrong in his choice and is more then capable of
running a big race today. The David Johnson Pair are both likely to
interest punters and Celestial Gold could be regarded as a big price
in this race, while his stable mate is likely to be well supported
in this race and could go off clear favourite.
Selection –
Il Duce 3 pts
win @ 14-1 (BF24's) & Celestial Gold
1 pt win @ 16-1 (BF22's)
Well Chief
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