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Preview
12 April 2008
3.05 Doncaster Urban Handicap
class 2 (4yo+ 0-100) 5F Good to soft (soft in places) 14 run
1. Matsunosuke - Constantly
kept on the go and shaped with much promise on last start on the all
weather when 2nd to a nice sprinting type over today's trip and is
of a similar mark here. Handicapped to go well in what looks a weak
class 2 handicaps by the course standard and has all the hall marks
of a early season handicap. That run last time is most probably the
most solid form to go on in this handicap and gave us a good idea of
the ability the horse holds. Top weight shouldn't be a problem, but
the main concern has to be the give under foot, as he needs quick
ground ideally.
My rating - 107
2. Northern Fling - Form
wasn't franked yesterday by the poor performance by Special day in a
sprint handicap and the poor performance in the Silver cup suggests
that the handicapper has caught up with him. However this isn't the
best class 2 handicaps he is likely to have contested and therefore
for a unexposed sprinter he could well find improvement to go well
here. The top weight isn't likely to help him and the fact he was
kept to better ground last season suggests he may want it quicker
then this underfoot, with that in mind and the possibility he may
need the run he is one to keep in mind for later on and better
conditions.
My rating - 102
3. Canadian Danehill - Has
improved again overt the winter and landed a sprint at Southwell
narrowly last time and is a credit to his yard that he provides such
a consistent profile. However on his return to turf he looks
handicapped up to the hilt and may well struggle as he has no
improvement likely left and these should have his measure at the
weights today. Its not the strongest of handicaps but he looks up
against it here and needs other to fail to perform which is more
unlikely on the flat then the jumps where luck can go your way.
Ideally suited to sprints he has handled ground with cut in well in
the past, but ideally is another who is best on a quick surface.
My rating - 103
4. Bond City - Most probably
the most classy horse in the race and isn't top weight suggesting
that he may not be as good as he once was, but he does look
handicapped to go well in this class of race and shouldn't be
discounted to lightly as not being good enough anymore. The run at
Beverly last season suggest he still holds the ability he once had
when trained by Brian Smart and these conditions shouldn't prove a
problem for him with five furlongs still looking ideal. Has graded
form in the book he is now 6yo, but should be able to hold his own
in a race like this and rates as a solid chance in this handicap
with no problems on the fitness front having gone well fresh often
in the past,
My rating - 118
5. River Falcon - Well beaten
last time and the 8yo is certainly one that looks in the grip of the
handicapper having finally won over five furlongs for the first time
in a long time at York. Ideally suited to a flat five furlongs such
as this tacky ground may not be ideal for him underfoot and the
effort here last time he stayed on ground that may have been more
suitable for him. Goes well early season he could well run a place
for the time being his winning looks likely coming when dropped a
few more lbs even though it isn't the best race.
My rating - 108
6. Fantasy Believer - on a
losing run having looked a top class handicapper back in 2006 and
needs to find his best form again to be a decent betting
proposition. Starting to look handicapped to go well again he is one
of the most exposed sprinters in training and should love the
conditions underfoot today. May need the run today as he often skins
better for the run he is one to keep in mind for the summer months
in a race such as this and the way he finished of last season he
needs very much to bounce back to form.
My rating - 100
7. Chief Editor - Likely to
be highly fancied for this race today and is well handicapped with
improvement still likely to come. Paired with Jamie Spencer who
looks a typical jockey booking for this type of race he has got on
well with this horse in the past and is a good speedball. Unlimited
tries on a surface such as this, he enjoys cut in the ground and
could be well ahead of the handicapper here. Should be fit to go at
the first time of asking he is on the shortlist to win this handicap
and go on to better quality class 2 handicaps then this.
My Rating - 120
8. Came Back - Has been
solely campaigned on the all weather and comes on to the turf
looking well in the grip of the handicapper for this event. Has a
lot to prove having shaped with so much promise on the all weather
and has racked up a winning sequence of 4. Needs to improve and the
turf with some juice should suit having ran his best race on the
deep surface of Southwell is ideally placed with five furlongs
suiting him having shown so much pace in his races and rates as a
interesting horse.
My rating - 106
9. Cape Royal - Another who
is on a long losing run but comes into this race looking well
handicapped in a class 2 sprint that has often had his measure. Its
just another pointer that this is a weak class 2 sprint and a
unexposed improver could take all the beating as it is more a class
3 handicap with class 2 status. Suited to this tacky kind of ground
he has shown enough over 5F in the past to suggest a big run here
today but he is vulnerable to more classy down grade rivals and
unexposed types.
My rating - 104
10. Elharmi - has struggled
since his 2yo days and is another that comes into this handicap on
the back of a long losing run and the drop back in trip after
failing to stay seven furlongs last time is interesting as his best
form came over the minimum trip. The ground however is a lot slower
then ideal for the horse and he may continue to struggle to land a
race for Sly Kirk whose runners usually improve as the season goes
on. Suited by the course and looks handicapped to go well, he may
well run his best race in quite some time.
My Rating - 101
11. Green Park - Was heavily
supported last time here over six furlongs and had to go down as one
of the more disappointing runners in that race having had the ground
turned ideal for him. The drop to five furlong is eye catching
having shown his best form over this trip in the past and more rain
will only improve his chances of landing this race today for Trainer
Richard Fahey who is a handicapping maestro. Goes well early season
he is one of the best handicapped horses in the field in my view and
could well bounce back.
My rating - 112
12. Bigalos Bandit - No
surprise to see Dandy Nichols double handed in a sprint handicap and
his Bigalos Bandit comes here looking to get prepped for Chester May
meeting in a months time. However he isn't without chance in this
race today with conditions underfoot to suit over the five furlongs
and with a good record on track such as this it would be no surprise
to see him go close, as he is the first choice of stable jockey. Has
gone well fresh before so the absence since Derby Day shouldn't be a
problem and his form prior to that race gives him a chance in this
race today.
My rating - 108
13. King of Swords - ran well
in a listed stakes race as a 2yo in Ireland and held together some
good form while trained in the Emerald Island but lost his way last
season and has been transferred to the Tinkler's for the first run
in this country since being outclassed at the Glorious Goodwood
meeting. Needs to find some form and never handled ground with cut
in it Ireland and the Heavy ground win can be discounted as those
conditions can see a quick ground mover buck trends. One to watch
today for a idea of how much ability he retains.
My rating - 99
14. Malapropisim - Mick
Channon has made his usual slow start to the season and his
Malapropisim is one of the most exposed sprinters in training and is
having his 100th run over five furlongs today. Finished his flat
campaign last season in good form and could well carry on landing
races this season in class 3 and 4 handicaps. Looks like he will be
dropped into easier races as he has regressed from the days when he
could hold his own of these sort of marks and even though this is a
poor looking class 2 handicap by the standards he still doesn't look
to be able to mix it with the best of these and with his record
fresh rather poor he is best past over today and kept on the
shortlist for a class 3 handicap in a month or two time. A credit to
the game though.
My rating - 106
Tissue Prices - Chief Editor 7/2, Bond City 4/1, Green Park 8/1,
Bigalos Bandit, River Falcon 10/1, Matsunosuke 12/1, Malapropisim,
Came Back 14/1, Cape Royal, Canadian Danehill 16/1, Northern Fling
20/1, Elharmi 22/1, Fantasy Believer 25/1, King of Swords 33/1.
Verdict – Not
the best handicap for this standard at this track and a race that
Chief Editor could easily take, on the way to better races. He is
currently best priced 11/4, which is no surprise with four
non-runners in the race. That now seems about the right price. The
value, however, may lie with the 7-1 about Bond City, as that is
more then generous, given the depleted field. Another that holds
some value in this race, is Green park, who is best priced 7-1,
which looks just about right for his chances. Bigalos Bandit looks
massive at 33-1 with the non runners, and I wouldn't put anyone off
with Baby Strange on taking the risk, but for my selection I will
return to the head of my tissue prices.
Selection –
Bond City 2 pts
win @ 7-1 (BF8's) & Chief Editor
1 pt win @ 11-4 (BF11-4)
Well Chief
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