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Preview
07 April 2008
4.50 Plumpton Alexander
Catering Handicap Chase Class 4 26F Soft
1. New Perk - Regular in
races such as this in the spring around Fakenham and Fontwell and
enjoys the sharp nature of those track, so it is surprising he
hasn't been at his best when contesting chases around this track.
The weakness of this class 4 handicaps. Well exposed as most in this
handicap are he could win this of top weight given that he is
weighted to go well despite being 5lbs higher then latest winning
mark. Handles soft well even though drier ground is most ideal and
just about stays this trip. The ground will make it more testing
with the weight on his back and maybe shorter would have been better
suited then the full 26F. Has much in favour and each-way money
could be had.
My rating - 107
2. Maori Legend - Paired with
usual claimer on board, she comes here of the back of a failure to
get round over hurdles and the return to chases may well bring about
a turn around in form. The two runs prior to that pull up were not
the most convincing rounds of jumping and she is looking like the
handicapper has her measure. Her form around this time of year isn't
convincing either and from a high weight she may well struggle under
the conditions today even though she has proven to stay in very
testing conditions in the past.
My rating - 101
3. Charango Star - Has proven
ability at this level and on the 2nd to Victory Gunner at Chepstow
has some claims on current form. The latest two runs have been far
from convincing to back him in good faith as he has failed to
complete his races, but he is well handicapped at this level.
Ability to stay the trip is a important factor as a lot of horses
get found out over 3M plus, even if it isn't the most testing of
tracks and if anything he would have preferred a much sounder test
of stamina. Handles tacky tough ground well he may want more rain to
totally be on top form and genuine oft ground may be against him.
Best prior to the spring he has a race that is totally within his
grasp today.
My rating - 107
4. Climate Change - Hard to
measure up this horse from a decent jumping stable and his overall
form has to be labelled as disappointing having been well beaten on
his first 3 starts in handicaps over jumps. The form of his novice
race stands up reasonably with the 2nd running unlucky Aintree 2nd
Dev close at Sandown, so on that form line he could be in with a
chance at this low level. However the step up in trip isn't certain
to bring around a turn in form on breeding and a drop back to
minimum distances might turn his fencing standard around.
My Rating - 91
5. Present M'Lord - Lightly
raced chaser at the age of 8 and represents a yard that has enjoyed
a brilliant season landing races with the Listerner and a welsh
national and there horse here has to respected in a race that he is
handicapped to go well in. Has ran with a consistent edge this
season and looks likely to continue it this year in which a frame
place looks the least likely. The ground shouldn't dampen his
chances and he is very likely to see out every yard around this
track even if a stronger test of stamina would be preferred. Has
plenty of good form at this level and would be no surprise to see
him stepped up in class in the near future.
My rating - 108
6. Amoreigh - Winner last
time out when continuing the good form he has already shown this
winter where he just started to get tired close home to hold on last
time. The ground that day made the stamina under a heavy weight
start to tell, but it was comfortable and he can continue his
progression today over these staying trips that has brought about
late improvement in thee 11yo who has been used sparingly. Sharp
tracks seem to be ideal and the trainer is getting the best out of
him and testing ground is helping him to kick at the right time. Big
chance of racking up another wins if finding enough improvement to
overcome the weights today.
My rating - 111
7. Hazeljack - Unseated
latest which he was contesting a close up 2nd and that came on the
back of a return to form the time prior. Whether he would have
beaten the born again Amoreigh is highly unlikely as he has plenty
of miles on the clock and being very exposed he may well struggle
being back close to needing to be at his best to win. Ground, trip
and course all seem to be in his favour, which is the case with
most, and the jockey has got on well with him since taking over. The
weight claim should help him as the 11yo will need assistance at the
weights, but it is no advantage having been hiked back up the
ratings when the change first took place.
My rating - 103
8. Lescar's Lad - Was unlucky
latest when beaten by an unexposed type in a similar sort of
handicap and has to come here as a rated danger with that run ear
marking a return to form. Has plummeted down the ratings on this
long losing run and could have benefited for the return of his
regular rider last time. Paired with him again he could well end
that long losing run here today with the ground and trip very much
in his favour. Suited to tight track, he does prefer the more
galloping sharp tracks like Huntingdon then maybe this and his best
form has come going right handed where he is regularly campaigned so
he may have a couple of negatives against him.
My Rating - 110
9. Tallow Bay - has fallen by
the wayside this season and was well beaten by Amoreigh here last
time and prior to that had failed to complete in any of his last
four chase faces giving the impression that he is out of love with
the game. Failure to run with any zest today will mark him down as
needing a change of yard and a seller is on the horizon as he has
everything in favour with the conditions of this race and the low
weight in a handicap that he should run a solid race in. Often
starts to run out steam this time of year as his best form has been
around the winter months, he has the hallmarks of not one to trust
with your life savings.
My rating - N/A
10. Alderbrook Girl - In the
same mould as Tallow bay in which she completed her last run after a
hatrick of pull-ups the time before, but the race was dead as far as
a form book goes and the tailing off just proved that she is far
from suited to this game at present. Half a stone out of the
handicap doesn't make life easier for her. Stays 3 miles well enough
her runs over further has been very uninspiring and she may just
start to run out of petrol in the finish here today, however she
isn't exposed over 3M+ and there may be a reason to preserve with
her over this extended 3M in company such as this. It would take a
leap of faith to back her however given the recent efforts she has
shown and a return to form here would have her well handicapped for
a similar race to this next time.
My rating - N/a
Tissue Prices - Amoreigh 7/2, Lescer's Lad 4/1, Present M'Lord
6/1, Charango Star, New Perk 7/1, Hazeljack 10/1, Maori Legend 12/1,
Climate Change 16/1, Tallow Bay, Alderbrook Girl 20/1.
Verdict – Another
low grade chase, but it is what to be expected at the change over
from one code to the other and with a few of these having meet in
the past it should be a case of the exposed horses in the handicap
being found out by the tactics of the likely pace setters. A couple
of well-handicapped horses for the level of opponents in this race
make it a interesting race and Amoreigh is non surprising favourite
at 11-4 on the advertised tissue. However he has to find more
improvement at 11, which isn't out of the question as he is
revitalised by the changes to the trip and ground. Lescer's Lad
isn't likely to be too short a price as he is on a long losing run
and could well be the value to play in this race at around 7-1,
while present M'lord represents a bigger stable then most in this
race so expect to see him supported as well to go close and 4-1 may
be a little to skinny a price to be taking even though he does look
very likely to make the money. There is value outside these 3 but
they are my main fancied horses and Lescer's Lad is the value pick
and e/w may be the soundest route on a typical Mondays racing.
Selection –
1 pt e/w Lescer's Lad
@ 7-1 (8's + 3.5BF'S)
Well Chief
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