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Preview
06 April 2008
4.20 Market Rasen Handicap
Chase 20F Good Ground
1. Copper Bay - Looked quite
a accomplished horse over hurdles for Alan King and hasn't quite got
his act together over fences as of yet and could be in the grip of
the handicapper after winning some average novice handicap chases.
Pulled up latest in a class 4 handicap chase at Lingfield latest and
contests a similar race here from top of the handicap. If he could
find his form that he showed over hurdles then he would take all the
beating, but with blunders in his locker he hasn't totally convinced
this is the code for him. Worth another try at this trip and could
improve for not jumping at pace.
My Rating - 111
2. Stagecoach Amber - Won a
maiden chase two runs back when taking the quick ground well at
Cattrick and ran a respectable race at Newcastle in a handicap on
second start over fences. Has some stamina doubts having never
produced his best running over hurdles over this far and while he
was a decent hurdler he is yet to get to that level over fences but
could well improve. The handicapper didn't seem to give him much
chance over fences on debut and the evaluation of the maiden
handicap could well be a little to high here as copper bay did
achieve more over hurdles.
My rating - 108
3. Moment of Madness - not
the most consistent horse in this handicap with two pull ups in his
last 3 races, but the run he did complete was a very good effort in
the make up of this handicap today. The run on quick ground at
Sedgefield he was beaten off by a horse with a featherweight in a
handicap that maybe was a little lower then this. The ground however
may not be ideal for him, as it seems with juice in the ground being
his more consistent preference underfoot. The trip shouldn't be to
much of a problem for him having stayed further then this even if he
hasn't quite found the same level of form since steeping up from 2M.
Exposed but come here very much back to some sort of form.
My Rating - 113
4. Cash on Friday - Beat
Eborarry last time in good style at this track and even though on
worse terms here today should have claims of confirming the form if
the ground hasn't gone totally against him. This handicap could be
just as good as the race he won and with the hike in the weights it
is likely to be made harder for him at the weights today.
My rating - 107
5. Spring Gamble - Returning
from a long absence from the race course and is well handicapped if
retaining his ability prior to injury. Likely to need ideal
conditions after injury the ground may need more give underfoot for
him to be at his best and shorter trips have been more ideal in the
past even though this isn't the most testing track around. Hard to
know just how fit he is likely to be after 800+ days of the track
and he has often in the past come on for the run.
My Rating - N/A
6. Eborrary - Connections
feel he can reverse the form with cash on Friday here on better
terms and he has a lot in favour as he goes well this time of year
for Tim Easterby who is better known as a flat trainer rather then a
trainer of jumpers. However rain would have increased his chances a
lot and with the ground getting quicker it is unlikely he will be at
his best to reverse the form with cash on Friday and looking at the
overall make up the race he is another that could be in the grip of
the handicapper.
My Rating - 108
7. Cebonne - the unexposed
type in the handicap with strong connections as Keith revelry has
often got some good horses from Sir Robert Orgdon in the past and
with four runs over fences in the UK so far not amounting to much he
doesn't look anything special and the turn to handicapping may well
bring some improvement out of the horse as he gets weight all-round
here. The unknown Quantity has to improve on his form even at this
low level and today may be best to watch until he does improve his
form.
My Rating - 101
Tissue - Moment of Madness 5/2, Copper Bay 4/1, Stagecoach Amber,
Eborrary 6/1, Cash on Friday 13/2, Cebonne 12/1, Spring Gamble 16/1.
Verdict – Small
little handicap in which Stagecoach Amber has been made favourite
for and I can only assume that the tissue compliers see the horse on
the upgrade over fences and well handicapped on the maiden chase
form he showed. However this could make the market much more
profitable with Moment of Madness (6/1) and Copper Bay (10/1)
looking good value and worth backing both against those at the head
of the market.
Selection –
Copper Bay 1pt
win @ 10-1 (BF11's) + Moment of Madness 2pts
win @ 6-1 (BF6's)
Well Chief
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