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Preview
04 April 2008
Aintree Day 2 Good to soft
(good in places)
2.00 Mildmay Novice Chase Grade
2
It’s the turn of the novice chasers today and Royal Sun Alliance
winner Albertas Run is likely to be a very strong favourite for this
race after beating all his main rivals in good fashion at
Cheltenham. Howard Johnson however has had this race in mind for
sometime now for the unbeaten Cedrus Libani over fences and has
already ran well at this track albeit in a two runner affair with
Tramatano who isn’t a reliable yardstick to base the race around.
The other to maybe cause concern to the favourite is Big Bucks
who was in the process of running a big race in the Feltham before
he uprooted several fences in his bid to concede weight all round.
His finishing position was no disgrace considering those pointers
and deserves his chance on a track that is ideal for him and its
rare for Paul Nichols to get it wrong in terms of trip with his
novices and he should see out the trip.
The Royal Sun Alliance didn’t go to plan for Joe Lively and his
season looks to have tailed off after much early promise and we have
got to the bottom of that horse I feel, while Roll Along who
sprinted up the hill in good style is better suited to a stiffer
finish in my view and could get outpaced on this sharper track at a
crucial time. The favourite has holes in his form to be picked at as
he was niggled early in the RSA and even though it was Tidal Bay
that smashed him at this track, his running style does suggest he
isn’t one to go heavy on at this track at a short price. Starzaan
may be worth another try as his form is solid enough if you discount
the Cheltenham run where he didn’t jump a fence at all and I don’t
feel he is right handed track horse either. He holds the value in a
poor looking race in which Battlecry may have been to the well one
to many times this season and could boil over despite the course
potentially suiting him.
Verdict – 1st Starzaan 2nd Battlecry 3rd Albertas Run 4th Big
BuckS
Advised bet – Starzaan 2pts
win @ 10-1 (12’sBF)
2.35 Sefton Novice hurdle Grade
1
The staying division for the novices could give us many clues to
next seasons plans as quite a few of these have most probably been
trained with fences in mind and schooling is likely to have been
already started. The Winner of the 3M at Cheltenham in game fashion
was Nenuphar Collonges who finds plenty of the bridle, but where as
Cheltenham helped him with his stamina he is not the quickest of
horses and is likely to get outpaced in this event today as the
hurdle track is quite sharp.
The Favourite is the classy Tazbar who avoided Cheltenham for
this event for Keith Reverley and looks a very strong staying type.
His win at Doncaster has been franked with Whiteoak proving to be a
decent Mare and the Haydock run was even more impressive when he
hacked up in great style and has been regarded as many as their
value banker for this meeting as he is odds against in this race.
The Tother one is a interesting runner having ran green when losing
out at Cheltenham and there could be further improvement to come
from the horse who has had many runs since Christmas. Petitfluer and
Quickbeam deserve their entries as they bid to bridge the gap from
handicappers to grade performers, while gone to Lunch will be
looking for compensation for his run at Cheltenham and deserves a
success. Souffleur destroyed Elusive Dream At Newbury and has solid
form around this track, the flat track should bring about a turn to
form and can put the run behind Tazbar where he was shocking behind
him and could well turn that form on its head here today. A strong
gallop is likely and it looks a better race then the 3M at
Cheltenham.
Verdict – 1st Souffleur 2nd Tazbar 3rd Gone to lunch 4th
Thetotherone
Advised bet – Souffleur 1pt
win @ 6/1 (BF7’s)
3.10 Melling Chase grade 1
The star appeal on day 2 has to be the reappearance of Master
Minded who has been promoted to best national hunt around after the
way he destroyed his rivals in the champion chase and is likely to
be a shoe in today given the rivals on hand to challenge him are
ones he beat last time and two extra rags for him not to see. Likely
to sit in behind Tamarinbleu who will be more suited to this trip
then the champion chase could well run a big race and give the
favourite most to think about as Voy Por Ustedes is more of a speed
horse. The ground should however be in more favour of the Alan King
runner and while he was rated just over a stone worse then Master
Minded in the Champion Chase he could well get a lot closer today
with Master Minded likely to be held on to a lot longer by Ruby
Walsh.
This should be cut and dry for the favourite as he has much in
hand on ratings and given that he had the Game Spirit at Newbury
covered from 2 out with Voy por staying on, he should stay this trip
despite what his French record suggest.
Verdict – 1st Master Minded 2nd Tamarinbleu 3rd Voy Por Ustedes
Advised Bet – Tamarinbleu
1/2pt e/w @ 10-1 (11’s + 2’sBF)
3.45 See main preview
4.20 Novice hurdle grade 2
Binocular franked the form of the supreme yesterday and while
captain Cee Bee conquered that horse, the performance at Cheltenham
isn’t highly likely to be mirrored here today on a totally different
track, niggled along early in the Supreme hurdle he was given a
peach of a ride when out battling his rival up the hill and looks in
a similar mould to Inglis Drever and a step up in trip may bring
upon further improvement in the horse and at the age of 7 may be one
for the longer trips next season.
While this is less competitive then the supreme hurdle and he is
likely to go close, his odds are not a true reflection of his
chances and there is value to be had elsewhere in this top novice
hurdle. All bar two of his rivals gets some help at the weights
today with Pigeon Island one that doesn’t get any help in the
conditions of this race. The Grey has had a hard season and will no
doubt pay the price now for his targets through out the season.
Khyber Kim was a big disappointment in the supreme hurdle and is yet
to live up to his billing after a successful debut at Newbury where
he won well. The run behind Tazbar could take some franking prior to
this race but he may just not be good enough at this level. Blue
Bajan didn’t run to bad in the supreme hurdle and should be well
suited to this track, but he is another who just lacks that extra
bit of class at this level. Paul Nichols Pierrot Lunaire has a good
run to Binocular to call on here and gets weight as well from
Captain Cee Bee, he should bustle up the favourite if coming on for
that run which is possible, while Greenbridge has done nothing wrong
in his two wins either.
The Favourite looks the most likely winner but hasn’t got that
much in hand with the change in conditions today and could well be
another good winner for the bookies.
Verdict – 1st Pierrot Lunaire 2nd Captain Cee Bee 3rd Khyber Kim
4th Pigeon Island
Advised bet – Pierrot Lunaire
2pts win @ 5-1 (11-2BF)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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