|
Preview
22 March 2008
4.10 Doncaster Coralpoker.com
Handicap - Class 2 6F GD-SOFT
1. Off The Record - Peaked in
July when a close 2nd at the July meeting at Newmarket after
progressing well through out the spring and early summer, and could
easily bounce back to form on seasonal reappearance. The ground with
cut in it hasn't been the most ideal conditions but with the ground
drying out he shouldn't be to far away from ideal conditions
underfoot. His form tailed off last season and his last run when
beaten by Genki wasn't actually far of what he achieved early season
and maybe he is just in the grip of the handicapper.
My Rating - 110
2. King Orchisios - Free
front going sort who is paired with a 7lbs claimer to help take the
weight of his back. Recent form on the all weather hasn't had much
luck and looks very much in the grip of the handicapper on this
return to the turf. The ground looks on the wrong side of good for
him and the trip today he has struggled many times in the past and
at the top of the handicap he looks likely to struggle here today.
My Rating - 90
3. Zomerlust - The evergreen
Zomerlust is very consistent over 6F on a straight galloping track
such as this and could well bounce back to form after a poor effort
here on last run of last season. The run behind Fonthill Road could
stand him in good steed in this handicap, as he is very exposed as a
handicapper at this level. The ground and trip are ideal for a big
run and should be involved in the finish if holding his best form
from early season last year.
My Rating - 108
4. River Falcon - Another of
the old timer in this handicap having ran with such consistency over
the years and still has claims at this level despite being used so
regularly in these types of races. Another whose run against
Fonthill Road gives him claims at this level in a handicap that may
be of the lower class 2 race in terms of ability through out the
field. Best over five furlongs and within grasp of his last winning
mark he may need to drop a few more pounds before he is handicap to
go in again.
My rating - 104
5. Burning Incense - Last
seen behind another serial loser Obe Gold who he has better terms
with today for this return to the track. The run prior to that
behind Dabbers Ridge looks good sprinting form and he is starting to
look very well handicapped to go close in this race today as that
run would give him a big chance. Drying ground is likely to improve
his chances of a win and he remains very well weighted to land a
prize this spring. His new trainer will look to keep him ticking
over but it could be a negative that Roger Charlton let him go when
it looked like he could be primly handicapped for a win.
My Rating - 105
6. Green Park - Heavy ground
seems to suit this horse best as he showed when landing the gosforth
park sprint over five furlongs. Has struggled since landing that
handicap and best run after that win was when chasing home Zomerlust
on equally tough going. More rain is needed to give him claims in
this handicap and the six-furlong trip hasn't been ideal for him in
the past. His form in which he finished of last season suggest that
he isn't to far of winning again and he is handicapped on the best
of his form to go well, but he doesn't have his ideal conditions for
today's handicap.
My Rating - 105
7. Gift Horse - Has always
been highly thought of as a sprinter since landing the stewards cup
a few years back and even though he hasn't held his form since those
days he is still always of interest in handicaps such as this.
Finished the season of in average form he does go well early season
for connections and has enough form over six furlongs to give him
claims even though a straight flat six furlongs hasn't always been
ideal. The ground should be ideal but he may need a quirkier track
to be at his best and his form may give him place claims at best in
this handicap.
My rating - 102
8. Ingleby Arch - Yet to
rediscover the form that had him running in top handicaps but comes
into this horse starting to look well handicapped to land such a
prize. The ground and trip couldn't be more ideal and even though he
is vulnerable in big handicaps to improvers he should run his race
for connections. Early season is often the time to catch the horse
and he should be fit and ready to do himself justice today with a
lot in his favour.
My rating - 108
9. Baby Strange - Placed in a
graded race abroad back in October 2006 he missed last season
through injury and isn't certain to carry his old ability based on
the form this season so far. Based on these conditions he has strong
claims over this flat six furlong and still has potentially more to
offer as a handicapper. Goes well this early in the season he hasn't
handled big fields to well in the past, but this is a much lower
level then the Royal Ascot field he contested a few years back.
Change of yards isn't likely to have improved the horse from his
Paul Blockly days and could maybe be struggling from his early age
success.
My rating - 109
10. Red Cape - Had claims in
some decent races last season for his former trainer he is another
who has potentially down sized in the yard that he has joined. The
trip remains a question mark with a bit further more suited then
this today and the ground may well be slower then totally needed.
Still unexposed on ground with cut he is by Cape Cross whose
offspring's are usually better on a sounder surface but handle some
cut in the ground. Should be fit from the run in January his run on
the all weather back last spring against Levera could well stand up
in this company today, however it is unknown on how good he still
is.
My Rating - 106
11. Cape - Yet another horse
who has lost his way and joined a new yard she comes here for a new
trainer today after finishing the season of with one of his better
efforts in the last 12 months and that run gives her some strong
claims if the new trainer can continue the form of the last trainer.
It's hard to see a change from a top yard improving the horse and
she may not be able to hold her own in a handicap that is of true
class 2 statuses. This race looks below genuine class 2 forms and is
a typical early season handicap. The trip and course suits and she
has ran well on this surface without threatening to win.
My rating - 107
12. ExtraTerrestrial - A
interesting recruit from Ireland for top northern trainer Richard
Fahey and could make up into a nice handicapper for the yard in time
as he is still fairly unexposed. Contested some top handicaps in his
native Ireland its unknown how well handicapped he is for this
today. The ground shouldn't be a problem and he could be a big
improver over this trip having had a limited amount of runs over
this shorter distance. The big field should ensure that the pace is
good and he could well be staying on well to get back to his best
form. Should be fit for first run for yard.
My Rating - 104
13. Masai Moon - Looked quite
a well progressed 3yo last season and isn't certain to prove a
better 4yo then 3yo for his yard, but is potentially handicapped to
go well with some solid form at the back end of last season. Early
spring has been good to this horse in the past seasons and he should
be fit for this run today under the returning Alan Munro who had a
brilliant season 2yrs ago. Yet to win a handicap at this level but
the form of his Newmarket run looks strong and with early season
form in the past he could be a big player from the right end of the
handicap.
My rating - 109
14. High Curragh - Has a
similar profile to Ingleby Arch from their 3yo days and after a
average season last term he may be ready to strike this season and
looks the first string of the Kevin Ryan Pair in this handicap.
Handicapped to go well on the best of his form he hasn't been the
most consistent over six furlong in the past or with ground with cut
in and could well struggle under today's conditions. The flat nature
of the course should suit his running style but I would like to see
him be tried again over five furlongs especially when given quick
ground underfoot. Fully exposed and races in the future look likely
to suit more then today's.
My rating - 102
15. Obe Gold - Ended long
losing streak when winning at Goodwood under soft conditions and has
since left Mick Channon Yard for the sprint king Dandy Nichols who
is the man for sprinters in handicaps where Obe Gold future lies. A
former group horse he does not retain that sort of ability and is
very exposed as a sprinter. Suited to the ground today he gets six
furlongs well on courses such as this and from the right end of the
handicap he could return to form after losing his last two runs.
Should be fit for this and goes well early doors, it could be
another sprint winner for Dandy Early season.
My Rating - 110
16. Blue Tomato - Won on
debut for Dandy Nichols last weekend over five furlongs and returns
to his more favoured six furlongs today on ground that shouldn't be
as quick as it was last weekend. Different conditions today could
see him struggle but he is a sprinter in form and should be ready
for another big run today in a better handicap the he contested last
time. At the right end of the handicap he shouldn't struggle in this
company and could be back to his very best, the choice of the
trainers son today who couldn't desert him after last weeks win.
My Rating - 106
17. Pusey Street lady - Has
some decent enough listed form to give her some claims in a handicap
against the opposite sex and the run behind the decent Ripples Maid
stands up well in relation to the others best form in this race, Yet
to win since her early day she may start to look quite well
handicapped for the yard and sees out six furlong well. The
conditions underfoot shouldn't be too much of a problem even though
her wins did come on better ground and she could still improve for
handicaps if you turn a blind eye to the silver cup, which is quite
possibly a better handicap then the quality of this. She rates as a
interest and if keeping calm she could run a big race.
My rating - 108
18. Yungabarra - Not as good
as when contesting races on the all weather he was well put in his
place last week in a sprint handicap and may well struggle to hold
his own at this level. Another who is out of the handicap for this
race today he is paired with a claimer of 7lbs and has fewer than 8
stone to carry if the jockey can do the weight. Six furlongs is his
ideal trip and while the ground isn't his most ideal and he firmly
exposed on turf the low weight could well help him to not trail home
in last. This track should suit him but he may be best waited with
in backing sense until he drops a level.
My Rating - 101
Tissue Prices - Obe Gold, Off The Record 7/1, Baby Strange, Masai
Moon 9/1, Zomerlust, Ingleby Arch, Pussey Cat Lady 10/1, Cape 12/1,
Blue Tomato, Red Cape 14/1, Burning Incense, Green Park 16/1, River
Falcon, Extraterrestral 20/1, High Curragh, Gift Horse 25/1,
Yungabarra 33/1, King Orchasies 40/1.
Verdict – Looks
a open handicap as usual for a sprint and one that should offer
value bets in with a good chance of landing a bumper pay day. Blue
Tomato is quite well fancied after winning 6 days ago and the 6/1 on
offer does look very short as the conditions last week did turn in
to his favoured quick ground. The stable 2nd String could well be
the answer on his first start for the yard and 16-1 looks a fair
price to me, while the top weight Off the record has claims as well
with his early season form and is also priced at 16-1. Masai Moon at
22-1 looks very big as well, while Baby Strange has group form to
answer for. Zomerlust and Ingleby Arch add to the proven types over
6F on a flat track and hold claims in a strongly contested handicap.
Selection –
Off the Record 1pt @ 16-1(BF17's), Obe Gold 1pt @
16-1 (BF'S18's) & Masai Moon 1pt @ 22-1 (BF'S 26's)
Well Chief
|