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Preview
26 March 2008
4.25 Kempton Handicap Chase -
Class 3 2M Gd to soft
1. Some Timbering - Been of
the track for over a year after pulling up in a novice chase in very
tacky heavy ground at Haydock and looked quite a interesting type
over fences prior to that run with a good place effort in Ireland in
a grade 3 chase for novices. Uncertain on the well being of the
horse with no recent form, those efforts would have him in the thick
of things here with potential improvement to come. However with
question marks over the return of the horse from a lay off, you have
to be cautious with these types and the top weight after time of may
be to much to overcome on this return. He does however get the 2M
well and has a brilliant record when contesting this trip over
hurdles, the ground should be about ideal for him and if returning
over fences a much more accomplished jumper of a fence he may have a
chance as the class horse of the field.
My rating - 123
2. Le Burf - Hacked up latest
over a longer trip then this and quite a surprise to see him
stepping back in trip for this event today on a much sharper track.
Has good solid form over this trip in the past and does handle give
in the ground but he may be looking for a tougher test of stamina
then he is likely to get today. Exposed on ground and over trip the
mark he has for victory in novice event could see him as handicapped
up to the hilt as he enjoyed quite a steady novice campaign. Mark
Bradburne has struck up a good relationship with the horse and takes
the ride again today. He may want a tougher test then 2M on this
sharp track, even though the run behind a decent novice of Nicky
Henderson here, gives him some claims.
My Rating - 120
3. Brave Villa - Starting to
look well handicapped again and is likely to benefit from the
jockeys claim today as he takes of seven vital pounds and has been
well worth that claim this season. The drying ground should well
suit this horse that does travel well and has good form over the
minimum trip over fences. The run last time and the time before
looks good form at this level and is well worth considering under
the jockey in this company, back down to a reasonable mark he has
however experienced a hard campaign and is very exposed and
vulnerable to a improver in this handicap, but with the ground, trip
and ability to travel strongly on the bridle he has every chance.
My rating - 124
4. Schinken Otto - Another
horse that has a few miles on the clock and is fully exposed in the
sphere he runs in today. Comes here in fairly decent form having
returned to the jumping game from a stint on the all weather to
chase home a half decent chaser in Ela Re and is sure to be fit for
this run today. The drying ground should be in his favour and
connections of this horse are hoping the ground conditions improve
without the day so he can have it potentially quick underfoot by
post time. Any rain would suggest he is likely to be a non-runner in
this handicap as his record with any gong description with the word
soft in isn't to inspiring for his supporters. Stays 2M well he
shouldn't be lacking any pace for this race and a lot depends on the
weather. A certain winner in the summer months.
My rating - 117
5. Mibleu - Comes here of the
back of a fall and if the confidence is still in one piece he could
bounce back to form that he showed at Leicester earlier in the
season. Not to heavily expose as a handicap, the drying ground
should be very much in his favour having struggled to handle ground
with plenty of give underfoot so far this season. The Alner's have
enjoyed much success this season and this horse could still make
into a decent handicapper for the yard. His level of form recently
needs to improve to be winning this and with the ground turning into
his favour he is once again a live contender for handicaps such as
this when it turns quick underfoot.
My Rating - 111
6. Beau Torrero - One of the
more consistent horses in this handicap in terms of prize money
obtained. Suited to good to soft ground and very effective over this
trip he is handicapped to go well once again even though starting to
get into the twilight of career as a chaser and is firmly exposed.
Knowing what to expect from the horse he has much in favour and a
nice low weight to run off here. Yet to win a class 3 handicap in
his attempts he is certain to pick up more prize money when maybe
dropped in level, however this doesn't look the strongest of races
and with much in favour he has a chance in this handicap of maybe
obtaining some more place money.
My Rating - 122
7. Romany Dream - Bounce back
to form last time with a easy 6L win over Paxford Jack on Gold Cup
day and will be looking to follow up again in what looks a similar
type of race in terms of quality. Seven career wins for the Mare
now, she has a nice racing attitude and is at the right end of the
handicap as far as ability at this level goes. The win last time
gives him ever chance despite the rise in the weights, maybe
suggesting that he needs to improve. In a handicap full of much of
much ness he has to have solid chance with so much in his favour for
this event.
My rating - 126
8. Mango Catcher - Formally
trained in Ireland with Paul Nolan, he makes his debut for a smaller
yard today and it will be interesting to see how well the English
handicapper has assessed his form here today. Based on his Irish
form he has the speed for 2M and the sharp track shouldn't be too
much of a concern. The drying ground should also suit him and there
may be a few races to pick up with this horse throughout the summer.
Form is fairly average from Ireland and he needs to improve on it to
land this, but he does rate as a dark horse with the assessment by
the handicapper unknown.
My Rating - 109
9. Green Gamble - Has turned
the corner at the foot of the weights here and is on a hatrick bid
at a level he won a novice handicap chase race back in 2005. The
latest win at Lingfield was a impressive victory in which he went
away to land the spoils by 11L against a exposed type and on this
upgrade in class he isn't meeting anything out of the ordinary. His
form suggest that he should go close in this handicap despite the
13lbs rise in the weights and with previous form at this level it
would be no surprise to see him make the step up to class 3 handicap
when it is basically the same as a class 4 in terms of quality in
the race. More of a galloper, he will handle sharper tests such as
this just as well and Richard Johnson is a positive booking for the
horse.
My rating - 128
Tissue - Green Gamble 5/2, Romany Prince 4/1, Roman Villa 5/1,
Some Timbering 11/2, Beau Torrero 6/1, Le Burf, Shincken Otto 9/1,
Mibleu 16/1, Mango Catcher 25/1.
Verdict – Not
a great handicap for a class 3 event at this track and it looks like
a few of these are having preps for other upcoming engagements and a
chance to get handicapped. Green Gamble is clearly on an upward
curve now he has found his feet again and the win last time was
impressive enough for the handicapper to harshly treat him with
almost a stone up in weight. Romany Prince is the yardstick for
which to judge this race around and has a strong chance as many fall
below what he is capable of. Something Timbering should be monitored
in the market as to his well being, while expect some money for
Brave Villa who is likely to be around the 5/1 mark for this
handicap and looks set to run a big race along with Beau Torrero.
All in all a trappy affair and Romany Prince.
Selection –
1 pt win Brave Villa
@ 5-1(11-2BF) + 1 pt Win Romany Prince
@ 7-1 (BF9's)
Well Chief
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