|
Preview
22 March 2008
4.00 Doncaster - The William
Hill Lincoln Heritage Handicap Class 2 1M Soft
1. Blytheknight - Winner of
this race 2yrs ago when it was held at Redcar and returns to the
flat after being found out over hurdles in the last few months.
Travels strongly and is ideally placed of a fast pace, he may be to
exposed now and regressing after having a hard 12 months. Handles
tough going that I predict by post time today with the horrid
weather playing havoc and should change the Virgin ground to be more
testing then forecasted. Had a great season last year he is a very
talented horse for handicaps, but of top weight today he may well
struggle even though he is one who will handle these conditions.
My rating - 111
2. Fajr - is fit for this
seasons opening handicap after enjoying a stint in the heated
surrounding of Dubai. Not disgraced over there he returns as one of
the class acts in this handicap today and could well take all the
beating with some very strong form in the book. Ideally suited to a
galloping mile such as this and often goes well early season so
there should be every chance of a big run here today with the soft
going not causing him any problems and his ability to handle a big
field and under the head waiter he may come with a storming run to
land the spoils here today.
My Rating - 120
3. Prince Forever - An
interesting horse at the top of the handicap as he hasn't won since
making a good impression at Newbury on race course debut and his
mark could well be higher then his ability suggests as he has been
given some very stiff tasks to date. A good 3rd on last run in a
listed class 3yo race back in May last year, he has been lightly
campaigned and may make up in to a nice 4yo for Michael Jarvis and
the Master Tactician Philip Robinson. Out of all the horses in the
field he most probably has the most improvement to come but the
handicapper has taken very little chance with him and it's hard
evaluate his form.
My Rating - 115
4. Clipperdown - Made debut
seasons for Peter Harris and Walter Swimburn and looked quite a
decent type winning of marks around the 80's and then was sold to
America where things seemly haven't worked out and he makes his
return of a long absence here for Creighton's and has it all to do
from his current mark it seems. Sure to be a interest when dropping
down the weights which is a massive possibility after today's race
and even though he is very effective over a mile and has a good
record fresh, there has to be concerns about his well being.
My rating - 108
5. Mine - The old timer who
loves big field handicaps such as this is turned out earlier then he
is usually in this country and with plenty of miles on the clock and
a regressive look to him he may just be below this quality these
days. Will no doubt use his turn of foot to get involved in the
finish of a strong gallop which is often the case with these big
fields, his form last year had a consistent look to it and that was
of place form at best at this level and with luck he may claim 4th
or 3rd today if some of the principals run below there form. Has
nothing to prove and has paid his way, he will be remembered as a
great handicapper.
My rating - 112
6. European Dream - Another
that has had a stint over hurdles this winter and may have had the
edge taken off, he returned to the flat game with a stint in Dubai,
that didn't go to well and a lot may have been down to the
conditions of the track out there not suiting. The conditions
underfoot today should be ideal and a much better run is expected.
Gallops a mile well he won the lesser race on last years Lincoln
card at Newcastle in very good style and deserves his chance in this
handicap this year with a lot in his favour for a much better run.
The handicapper however with the hard 12 months he has had may just
have his measure at the moment.
My rating - 115
7. Raptor - Has been
campaigned quite highly and finished in the pack in the
Cambridgeshire in which he has some form ties with a few of these
based on. Yet to find the form from Germany, he finally ran some
decent races towards the end of the season last year and has form
tied in with Babodana. The testing conditions may improve him here
having only raced on better ground since being in the UK and was no
surprise that he improved for autumn ground last season and could be
interesting with juice underfoot today over a trip he stays well.
My rating - 118
8. Classic Port - One run in
this country at Wolverhampton where he was very one paced over 9F on
a sharper track then this straight mile today, its hard to draw to
much from his limited form and while being a dark horse, the first
impression I got was that he is to high in the handicap and is one
to watch.
My rating - 112
9. Rio Riva - Finished well
in this race 12 months ago to finish 2nd to the run away winner and
connections will be happy that the rain and snow has landed at
Doncaster as he is by far at his best when he has testing ground to
run on. A no shower in the Cambridgeshire in which the ground may
have been to fast for him he will be much better under these
conditions and could easily bounce back to form he showed when
bolting up at Newcastle in a class 2 handicap. Stays a mile well and
handles a galloping course well even if a stiffer galloping track
would be ideal. Best early season he should be on the premises if
the ground continues to get softer and goes well fresh.
My Rating - 115
10. Azarole - Didn't enjoy
the best of seasons last year and looked held at the weights in all
the races he contested and the dropping down the weights has been a
slow process and the change of stable may see him return to his best
form but he is quite exposed as a handicapper and best days may be
well behind him these days. He did however show some glimpses of his
old ability in Dubai recently and if Jane Chapel-Hyam can find the
key with this horse the ability is there to pick up a handicap
against exposed sorts such as him.
My Rating - 112
11. Yeaman's Hall - Another
unexposed horse who could well be a group performer in a handicap
and Andrew Balding could well have a horse here who is better then
this mark he has been given for a conditions stake race win at
Sandown where he has had half of his runs so far. Thought to be good
enough to try and beat group company in Ireland he was put in his
place that day but his mark was protected and with improvement in
him he should fair better then he did on handicap debut when
finishing down the field at Sandown in a strong looking handicap.
My Rating - 123
12. Very Wise - Last years
winner may have not done himself many favours with a win at the back
end of last season when running out a decent winner in a Newmarket
handicap and is a horse that benefits from a long straight mile
where he can extend his galloping action. Travels strongly in his
races he was a easy winner of last years Lincoln handicap and with
rain about he should once again run a big race early doors with
plenty of give under foot. The course suits and he is fit to run his
first race of the season. The handicapper may have him in his grip
but with a lot in favour he could still grab a place in these
conditions.
My Rating - 118
13. Little White Lie - Not
entirely sure about this horse as his form is very little known to
me and gives this handicap a interesting edge to it. All his form
has been overseas apart from one run at Epsom in which he ran a
cracker, so there is no problem with him travelling over. Didn't
show to much on return on the all weather but should improve for the
return to turf and handles soft ground conditions. The form of his
runs looks to give him some claims at this level and not one to
discount with spring form in the book, but the mile trip has to be
some concerns.
My rating - 114
14. Babodana - Has fallen
down the weights and is starting to look very well handicapped again
having held form at the highest level including winning this
handicap at this track under top weight and is well suited to the
track, even though a mile these days may not be his most ideal trip,
but with a strong pace and his liking for these early season
handicaps he has to have claims under these conditions and a nice
racing weight. One to consider now he is handicapped to go well
again even if fully exposed.
My rating - 120
15. Annemasse - Interesting
new recruit to the Fahey stable after enjoying a good start to the
season 12 months ago while with Mark Johnston and even though not
many horses improve for leaving Mark Johnston yard he looks a
typical Fahey handicapping type and could well spring a surprise
here by landing this handicap if tackling the soft ground well,
which on breeding and given his action should be no problem and
could start the season of well for team Fahey in handicaps as he
gained a lot of experience in these types of races last season while
only 3yo.
My rating - 124
16. Vitznau - Another 4yo in
this handicap which have a good record in recent years and Richard
Hannon is long overdue a winner in this handicap. A winner over 7F
at Epsom last season he has a consistent profile having made the
frame in over half of his races so far. The ground is another factor
that he needs to prove effective on as well as the trip and he is
very unexposed and dangerous in the make up this handicap with his
trainer knowing what it takes to land this prize.
My rating - 119
17. Watamu - Comes here of
the back of a thumping win over last seasons Lincoln winner on the
all weather 12 months ago and after missing the turf season last
year he needs to prove his fitness here today and the connections of
the horse will be hoping that the rain doesn't make it to soft for
this horse who has a quick moving action that is well suited to the
polytrack or very fast ground and is likely to be a non-runner today
with the conditions against him.
My rating - 114
18. Fremen - Was quite well
fancied for the Cambridgeshire after a good run of form and caught
the eye in that handicap as he finished well to finish 7th having
found some trouble in running and could well be up to winning
another big handicap this season for sprint king Dandy Nichols.
Handles plenty of cut and loves a galloping mile the big field and
strong pace should suit him as well and with good early season form
in the book already he should give a good account of himself as he
isn't over raced for a 8yo and with recent runs in Dubai he could
well run a big race.
My rating - 117
19. Smokey Oakey - A
impressive winner at the end of last season at Ayr on heavy ground
as he bolted up from a consistent performer at class 3 level and
looks up to improving further this season for the Tompkins yard who
have made a name for themselves in recent seasons. Mile looks the
ideal trip for this horse and the course should play to his strength
as he handles a flat track well. Stays further then a mile the
stamina side of him shouldn't suffer with a strong pace likely for
the conditions. Handles give in the ground to the extreme and should
improve further this season and have class 2 handicaps win to his
name already.
My Rating - 124
20. Dhaular Dhar - Should be
using this as a stepping stone towards Chester cup meeting where he
usually comes good with his best runs as he is suited to tight
turning tracks, however he showed in the Banbury cup last season
that a straight seven furlongs suit with a fast finishing 4th in
that event and handles any trip between 6F and a mile with his form
over a mile maybe shading it these day's. Has patchy form at this
level but he is better now then he was in his younger days as he has
taken his time into growing into a decent handicapper. Today's race
looks quite a strong one and while he has improved with age its hard
to draw any more improvement out of him and sharper track may be
where he strikes again of this weight.
My rating - 115
21. Escape Route - quite a
few fancied him to land the Lincoln even though his stable mate was
the strong favourite who won the handicap and after making quite a
good impression when winning at Goodwood he hasn't carried that form
on in Dubai even though the run behind the highly progressive Black
cat Black Kitten stands up well of this current mark he could well
be ready to strike for John Gosden who is more renowned for his
younger horses then his handicappers. Still unexposed he has
improvement to come and the tougher conditions may help him along as
he has the stamina for further being by elusive Quality.
My rating - 117
22. Temple Place - Created a
shock when winning at Chester last season at 50-1 and was only seen
once after that when being well beaten at York in a handicap that
worked out well. Stays further then this mile trip he has a absence
to overcome which is a concern with not the best record fresh and
with improvement needed to be winning a class 2 handicap. Bottom
weight gives him a chance and the steering of Robert Winston a
former winner of this handicap is eye catching for Donald McCain who
has had a cracking season over jumps.
My Rating - 117
Tissue Prices - Smokey Oakey, Annemasse 7/1, Yeaman's Hall 8/1,
Babodana, Fajr 10/1, Vitaznu 12/1, Very Wise, Raptor 14/1, Temple
Place, Escape Route, Fremen 16/1, European Dream, Dhaular Dhar, Rio
Riva, Prince Forever 20/1, Little White Lie, Watmu 22/1, Mine,
Azarole 25/1, Blytheknight 28/1, Classic Port 33/1, Clipperdown
50/1.
Verdict – The
first big handicap of the season and with little known still about
the new track at Doncaster the draw could pay a big part in this
race, but on the basis of a few of the big field handicaps last
season the draw looked to be quite fair across the track and the
best horse in the conditions should come out on top. A good mixture
of exposed and unexposed handicappers and some old favourites in
this race including 3 past winners it looks a solid handicap to open
the flat season and with winter ground it could be quite a slog and
expect the ground softer then forecasted. The higher numbers could
well have the most pace but the centre of the course could be where
the race is run and Fajr looks overpriced in this handicap along
with Annemasse on first start for Richard Fahey while Yeaman's Hall
looks the best of the two horses that have had only a handful of
runs so far. Babodana looks nicely handicapped again and could run a
big race in a race he has won, while Smokey Oakey was so impressive
on last run last year he should carry on his improvement despite the
rise of 9lbs. It's a lottery but the prices reflect that.
Selection –
1 pt win Annemasse
@ 20 (BF25's) + 2 pts Smokey Oakey
@ 8-1 (BF9's)
Happy Easter
Well Chief
|