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Preview
13 Mar 2008
Cheltenham
Festival day 2
After day 2 was a blow out (Pardon the pun), we are left with two
days of racing that is quite possibly the best two days racing ever
to be staged in the sport for kings. Day one of the festival saw
some interesting winners with Katchit denying Osana in the champion
hurdle and while not a vintage year, no one can take it away from
the first two who are both as game and genuine as they come. The
Irish grip has been weakened on the 2M event but they may look to
the Supreme winner Captain Cee bee as the future in the champion
hurdle despite being quite old for a novice. The 2nd in the supreme
hurdle however has be taken seriously as he travelled like a
superstar and has better days ahead of him. Tidal Bay was the
highlight on day one of the festival as he warmed to his task and
showed a change of foot that was quite explosive to the eye, while
blessed with Speed his future may well lie over further with the
Ryanair a possible stepping stone to challenging the likes of Kauto
Star and Denman in the gold cup in a few years time.
Anyway on to today's bumper card in which we have 10 races, but
we will start in race 2 of ten.
1.05 Royal sun Alliance Novice chase
This novice chase has slightly been devalued over the years as
the top novices such as Tidal bay has sided to the Arkle and the
shorter test of stamina and without a stand out horse like Denman in
the race this year it looks a very open affair to be contested and
no surprise to see it 5-1 the field.
The Irish have a interesting run in the Mare Pomme Tippey who
gets her sex allowance against the boys here and stays this trip
well, with Ruby Walsh up on top she has the perfect assistance in
the saddle as he will switch her off and be gentle on her, she could
well prove to be a top mare and better then these if acting around
Cheltenham which is always a concern with these horses coming over
to Cheltenham for the first time. The home team are led by Air force
one who has been a bit of a hype horse since last years festival
where he stayed on up the hill in the 3M novice hurdle, always been
earmarked as a chaser he will carry on progressing as a chaser and
could well prove to be good enough to contest the Gold cup in 12
months time.
Joe Lively is a course specialist but may have had a hard season
to date, his wins at this track have been mightily impressive and if
he hasn't lost the edge at this late stage of the season could go
close if getting into a rhythm. Silverburn a half brother to Denman
has a big reputation to live up to after tasting defeat in the
Ballymore properties like his brother did. Hasn't progressed in the
same manner as his brother he jumps well and proved that when
winning at Sandown last time in a manner of a decent horse. Slightly
jumps to his right and occasionally has ran down the fences, he is
clever how he overcomes the obstacles and corrects himself. Roll
Along is a interesting run in this race after finishing like a steam
train in a handicap last time to the Hairy Lemon he needs to improve
on that running but could be well up to doing so to maybe claim a
place in this race.
Not a vintage year and nothing really stands out and the hope is
that Pomme Tippey can become a superstar and carry on her
progression. Albatras Run makes one to many mistakes for my liking
and may struggle to confirm last running.
Advised bet - Pomme Tippey
1pt e/w @ 5-1 (BF5's)
1.40 The Feltham Novice handicap chase
Usually the first race on the card and has been moved forward in
time to make way for the champion bumper at the end of the day. A
big field as usual for these handicappers that are regarded just
below top echelon of the novice chasing game and usually has a well
handicapped grade 3 chase in here that has been layed out for the
race.
Paul Nichols usually doesn't escape the handicapper's radar as
many of his chasers are highly regarded and he has a strong hand in
this race with three runners in the first five in the weights in
which the top weighted Big Bucks has a claimer on board to take the
weight down to a respectable weight. The race is quite new to the
festival so weight stats and age of novices have little if no baring
on this race as a factor and with the champion trainer having three
near the top of the handicap it could say the handicapper has taken
no risks or they are just shade below his top class novices.
Big Bucks has ran well in a grade 1 chase this season and could
still make up into a decent chaser in time as he is fairly unexposed
and should improve for this trip and big field a good solid clip,
the jockey isn't off putting as he has looked another very
accomplished claimer turned out by the yard (having good horses
helps). Arturio is a very dark horse in the make up of this
handicap, having only been seen twice in the UK so far in which he
beat something wells in good fashion on his only start over fences.
Disappointed when put back over hurdles last time he should be
skinned fitter for that run and could be anything over fences having
won over course and distance is a bonus. The horse he beat something
Wells reposes today with a stone weight swing here and could well
take a hand in the finish of this race. They had Boomshakalaka well
beaten in behind that will be of interest with the champion jockey
on board.
The last of Paul Nichols runners is Dear Villez who has the
riding skills of Ruby Walsh who is looking for his best two days of
his life. Has done nothing wrong since getting to grips with the
fences and has a chance if copping with the quicker underfoot
conditions. Ambobo catches the eye for the Irish coming here in good
form after battling on to win narrowly in a beginners chase and may
have lenient mark for this while Possol at the right end of the
handicap has done nothing wrong and is unexposed in this. Quite a
trappy handicap with nothing really standing out and Paul Nichols
should have a good chance of landing this event.
Advised bets - Big Bucks 1pt
@ 20-1 (22BF) & Arturio 1pt
@ 12-1 (17BF)
2.20 Queen mum champion chase
A small field for day 2feature race, which Paul Nichols once
again has a strong hand with Master Minded and Twist magic both
being well fancied for this through out the season and likely to
dethrone Voy Por Ustedes as the champion chaser. Last year Well
Chief was sent of a short price favourite and failed to jump which
sadly looks to be the last time we see the last of the 3 best-rated
2M of the modern day.
This year there isn't likely to be a favourite as short as that
and Master Minded is likely to start joint favourite with the
current champion. Tariminbleu a handicap winner earlier in the
season is fancied to go close in this handicap but the ground may
not be testing enough for him to win at the top despite the great
form of the Pipe yard. Voy Por Ustedes could well continue his great
form at this track and there was no doubt he was closing up on
master minded last time but the Paul Nichols game spirit winner was
no doubtly idling in front and the way he passed through to take the
lead he could give us a start of a new exciting 2M era. Twist Magic
a lot of peoples fancy after his Arkle and Aintree runs has suffered
a set back in the mud and doesn't seem to have that fighting spirit
that you need to win a Queen mum champion chase and even though
likely to trade short in running he isn't taken to win this. Fair
Along on his day looks very good and after a absence he travelled
with purpose against Kauto star before getting tired, he still has
claims over this trip may have been better suited with the Ryanair
then this having shown he has stamina with his runs on the flat.
Master Minded has done nothing wrong and deserves the up most
respect here today and Ruby Walsh could be the man to make Clive
Smith a very happy man over the next 48hrs.
Advised bet - Master Minded
3pts win @ 3-1 (BF100-30)
2.55 The Ryanair chase
Fast becoming one of the best races at the festival we have some
genuine grade 1 chasers on show in Our Vic and The Listener who has
the form in the book in the 12 months to say they are amongst the
finest horses about and this renewal of this race shows that the
staying chaser division is amongst the best around at present.
The field may be the second smallest with Tarminbleu and Newmill
going for the shorter option then this it isn't lacking with quality
with all bar two with genuine grade 1 form in the field. Turko is
this year's runner for Paul Nichols who could well be looking to
rack up another winner on the card here today and if it was around a
right handed track you would just back him to come out on top as he
has won every time when going that way around. If he is to win this
grade 1 he needs to improve on his jumping left handed and with it
looking a top race he may find a few to good. Our Vic is very
talented and on his day can be very hard to beat, often talked of as
a gold cup horse he has shown that he doesn't stay that far as he
has to much cruising speed and while getting 3M at Kempton this trip
here is ideal on a course like Cheltenham, with the Pipe yard in
form seeing him out the frame is impossible despite being fully
exposed.
Racing Demon on the other hand has course form despite the view
that he is better right handed, he has improved this season and
looks a horse very much on top of his game, he has potential to
improve more and could easily go close in this race for a trainer
who holds much faith in him. Mossbank is the Irish challenger and is
clearly one of much potential he is another who is going the right
way and if jumping cleanly should have a favourites chance. The
Listener I feel wont go off as favourite for this as he seems to
improve for the trip to Ireland and could be the new Beef or Salmon
I feel, this isn't his race but deserves his chance.
Advised Bets - Mossbank 2pts
win @ 7-2 (BF7-2) & Racing Demon 1pt @ 12-1 (BF12's)
3.30 World Hurdle
The Feature race for day three of the festival sees the return of
the champion Inglis Drever who is a warm favourite to make history
and become a triple staying champion. First win in this race cam
when taking the scalp of modern day staying machine Baracouda to
pieces up the hill and if it wasn't for injury could have had a hat-rick
of wins by now in this event as the title was only leant to My way
de Solzan who is one of two runners in this race for Alan King.
Blazing Bailey should be better then ever in this event at the
age of six and could be the one to be the short priced champ here
today in what isn't the best staying hurdle line up seen and Ruby
Walsh could benefit for the spare here which choc taking the
ex-champ as his ride. Lough Derg has done nothing but impress this
season and good effort today could see the order of merit tied up
before Aintree where he goes with a better chance of winning. Kasbah
Bliss won well last time but there are holes to pick in the form and
looks a little under priced now.
Inglis Drever victory would be good for the sport but his price
is a little low and even though he is likely to be bigger in running
his layers have grown wise to his style of running and it wont be
until he cant win that he will become a much bigger price. No hype
horse this season in Black Jack Ketchum it could be quite open for
the places today and three horses at bigger prices are interesting
in the shape of Kazal, The Market Man and the former dual champion
hurdler Hardy Eustace who is always interesting around Prestbury
Park.
The Market Man has a lot in favour if able to progress to genuine
grade 1 class and while he has a 2nd back run question mark over
him, he has the look of a classy horse in the way that he travelled
at Sandown last time and with that return over fences I marked him
down as improving with age and looks a live each-way chance. Kazal
hasn't done anything wrong and if staying this trip on a stiff track
at championship pace could well surprise a few with Noel Meade horse
having a similar profile. Hardy Eustace if staying could be very
game over the last, but will he have enough kick in the finish these
days it is to be seen.
Advised bets - The Market Man
1pts e/w @ 22-1 (BF22's + 5's) & Kazal
1pt e/w @ 16-1 (BF 17's + 4's)
4.05 The Racingpost Plate
The last of the TV races to play is a open looking handicap and
JP Mcmanus Don't Push it is a potential top class runner in this
handicap from top weight and could give the owner another victory at
the festival. Seen in a hurdle race protecting his mark he has got a
finishing kick to him and rates as one of the best chances for Tony
Mccoy if close at the finish. Gwananko flopped badly last time at
odds on and may be to un exposed to totally discount over fences and
he could well improve to go close of this mark for mesas Nichols
& Walsh.
Bible Lord has done nothing but improve this season, but will
need to run a lot better then he did in the Hennessy gold cup where
he was beaten some way by Denman, this might not be up to that
standard but he was beaten to far to suggest he is quite good enough
for this level yet but with a little more improvement he wouldn't be
to far off winning this. Boychuk has been reserved for this in my
view and should give a good account of himself for Philip Hobbs and
he looks set to run a big race from this weight, while Oedipe if fit
will no doubt run a big race for Nicky Henderson on first run for
over a year, he is a interesting horse as he was so impressive on
debut. Crozan is interesting pick for Micky and maybe he has finally
found his feet, he certainly is good enough to win of this mark,
while Mighty Matters who won the other day looks up against it.
While don't Push it looks a potential good thing, Boychuk could
spring a big surprise here.
Advised bets - Boychuck 1pt
e/w @ 33-1 (BF40+6)
Well Chief
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