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Previews
11 Mar 2008
Cheltenham Festival Day 1
This years festival has steamed its way on to the scene it seems
this season as the National Hunt season starts it long wind down to
the flat season starting with what is the greatest horse racing
festival of the calendar year and this years festival stands to be
just as good as the years that have past. The weather leading up to
the festival has no doubt played havoc with a few ante post coups as
the course was being watered last week and now with the weather
taking a turn for the worse we are likely to have slightly more
testing conditions then expected. However it is due to clear up and
by post time on the first day the Cheltenham roar should be in full
swing.
2.00 Supreme Novice hurdle
Doesn't look a vintage year this time around and one trainer in
particular looks to get of to a flying start with no less then four
runners in the opener in which three are towards the front of the
market that is led by a grade 1 from Ireland in the shape of
undefeated Muirhead for the Noel Meade team.
Paul Nichols is sure to have a strong Cheltenham with the ammo he
has at his disposal and even though Friday is the main day for the
champion trainer he will want to get of to a flying start in a race
he won in the colours of the One Man two seasons ago with Noland.
His Rippling Ring made a striking impression on debut when hacking
up in good fashion at Doncaster and there has been steady support
for what looks the number 1 string for the yard. There 2nd String
Pasco has done nothing wrong in 3 races so far this season and
handles these big race fields well based on the win last time out at
Newbury where he has raced in all his races to date. Nicky Henderson
has a surprise inclusion in this race in the shape of the 4yo
Binocular who is another who is undefeated and will need to improve
on the performance last time out. Gets allowance for being a 4yo he
may blow the stats out of the water by landing this race for the
youngsters who have been used sparingly in this race over the years.
Khyber Kim looks likely to be the best of the four for Nicky
Henderson in which stable number one jockey Micky Fitz sticks with
this ex-classy flat horse despite the very poor show last time out
and the cut in the ground should help him bounce back to form with a
stronger test of stamina likely. The Irish will be looking for the
potentially top class Muirhead to get there festival of to a flyer
and he looks the best bet from the Emerald Isle for this handicap
ahead of Cork all Star, The Gloves are off and Sophocles who caught
the eye when last seen tackling this hill in the Champion Bumper.
Advise Bet - Muirhead 1pt win @ 8-1 (Bf 8's) &
Khyber Kim 1pt
@ 9-1 (Bf 10's)
2.35 The Arkle Novice Chase
The 2nd race on the card for 2 Mile chase named after the great
Arkle looks a strong renewal of the race in which the One Man
Colours Of Noland are very well fancied to make it yet another Arkle
Triumph for Connections and Paul Nichols who trained the top class
Azertyuiop to win this race 4yrs ago. Noland improved last time to
win at Sandown even though he was well expected to land the race on
route, visually maybe not as impressive as the time before when
beating trees at Folkestone he is one of the best novice jumpers
around this season and should complete this race as he doesn't make
a mistake. A winner two seasons ago at this track he has that extra
stamina in his locker that can see him go close over this stiff
track. However in Tidal bay he has a rival who matches the profile
of past winners such as My Way De Solzan and Monets Garden who went
close the time before. Looks like he stays further connections of
this horse believe he possess the speed to win over the shorter trip
with 2.5M more likely to be his future trips. The Cheltenham track
and championship pace will help him put the Doncaster defeat behind
him and with ground very much in favour he looks to hold a very
strong chance.
The tough to assess Moon over Miami is a horse that could still
run a big race here today, as he seems to run a big race every other
race and was poor last time out. The stiff track suits his style of
running and expect him to make his presence felt as Charlie Mann
thinks the world of him and will have him spot on for today's race.
Kruguyrova gets the handy weight allowance but may find a few of
these two good and Tony McCoy wont be expecting to much from the
consistent mare.
The Irish Will be hoping either Clopf or Thyne Again can produce
some magic to land this event for the first time since the great
Moscow flyer and the latter looks to have the stronger form coming
into this race, but both will need to prove that this tough track
will play to there strength and with that in mind it looks like the
UK will retain the Arkle for another year with Tidal Bay looking the
likely victor.
Advised Bet - Tidal bay 2pts win @ 7-1 (BF 7's) &
Moon Over
Miami 1pt @ 16-1 (Bf 22's)
3.15 Champion Hurdle
Recent years of the champion hurdle has been superb races and
last seasons anti climax will hopefully be caste in to the shadow
today's with a performance of true class from one of today's
runners. The performances of the runners lining up in this
championship race this season is yet to show one horse as a genuine
superstar or maybe a true grade 1 hurdler and it is crying out for a
superstar after being blessed in recent years with Istabraq, Rooster
Booster, Hardy Eustace and the sorely missed Brave Inca this season.
Harchibald has the potential to be a all time great as not even
the great Istabraq got as close as Harchibald did 3yrs back to
winning the champion hurdle on the bit. Worried out of it that year
Harchibald didn't have enough resolution that day to see off the
gallant Hardy Eustace and compensation is long overdue with injury
maybe potentially taking the edge of the horse. If this is to be his
year he will need everything to fall into place against a lot
fresher types and his time may have sadly pasted.
Last years winner Sublimity performance put up in this race has
not been surpassed by any of the challenger's performance this
season and last years race wasn't a vintage year in my view. Blew up
in this seasons Bula behind the Free going sort Osana he has a lot
to prove as last year when swinging through to take it up he didn't
find as much as first thought and just a feeling that he may find
one more willing this time around in a bigger field this time
around. The Irish seem to be queuing up to take the champion on and
Sizing Europe a winner over course and distance may well justify
favouritism in this having been cut to a rather short price in what
looks a open race.
Osana Gave quite a bit of weight when beaten by Sizing Europe and
with the hope of slightly less give in the ground could well give
David Pipe a champion in only his 2nd full season as a trainer. Last
year he came into the reckoning with a superb performance in the
county hurdle where he set very interesting fractions to be beaten
less then double figures despite seemly setting it up for the
closers, this season has seen him improve again and there was no
fluke in the win in the Bula hurdle in which he had the reigning
champ well beaten back in 4th. Katchit who finished behind him that
day was made to look very one paced when trying to close up and if
Osana can skip his field then he may be very hard to peg back here
and could finally loosen the Irish grip who has last season supreme
winner along with the consistent Farmer Brown and the interesting
inclusion of Catch Me who will be staying on. So many chances in the
race it is likely to be decided by those at the head of the market I
feel.
Advised Bet - Osana 3pts @ 5-1 (BF11-2)
4.00 William Hill handicap Chase
The handicap chase on day one has its usual mix of seasoned
handicappers with a strong unexposed type as favourite in the shape
of An Accordian who has progressed well through out this season and
is clearly going the right way, however there is always a concern
that he may make a error at the wrong time having in the past failed
to jump this track in the same manner that he showed last time at
Doncaster and with favourites in this race having a unlucky record
it would be no surprise to see another one toppled here today. The
handicap has some nice older types in the race with Ollie magern a
former grade 1 winner and L'Ami And Monkerhostin two horses that ran
with much credit in the gold cup a couple of season back and based
on that form the former looks very well handicapped here today with
just 11 stone to carry in this handicap that is lacking a lot of
unexposed types this season.
Ofarel D'Airy could well be the surprise winner today for Paul
Nichols as he is going the right way and could bring the champion
trainer back into the winners enclosure for the first time this
festival if jumping cleanly under the guidance of Ruby Walsh. New
Alco is a eye catcher in this race for the dab handicapping hand of
last years winning trainer Ferdy Murphy but needs to prove he stays
3 miles at championship pace which is likely to be cut out by the
free going Ollie Magern.
L'Ami travels well in his races and should get a nice tow through
in this race around a track that seems to suit him well and even
though performances have been a bit laxed since a decent 3rd at the
start of the season where he failed to stay the longer trip under
top weight. The drop back to this distance under AP McCoy with some
juice in the ground should be ideal especially that he is 13lbs
lower then the start of the season and trained by a trainer that
knows how to win this handicap if not having the favourite and looks
the best chance of the JP pair which is always something to note
from this owner when having more then one runner in a handicap.
Lankawi showed up well for a long way at Doncaster last time out
and has a big run in him at some point this spring and should be
monitored with Peter Bowen yard springing back to form around this
time of year.
Advised Bet - L'Ami 3pts win @ 9-1 (BF9'S) &
Ofarel D'Airy
1pt @ 12-1 (BF15's)
The Last two races on the day are watching races as the cross
country can be a bizarre race and the handicap good thing from the
weekend could easily make a mockery of the handicap for the same
yard who pulled of the coupe last year as well.
Best of luck and hopefully a profitable Cheltenham will be had by
all.
Well Chief
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