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Preview -
25 Feb 2008
3.30 Hereford Pertemps People
development Group Handicap hurdle class 3 (4yo+0-130) 2M 1F Good
1. Doctor David – Was given a
tough task last time in a grade 3 handicap at Newbury in which he
showed up well for quite some way but was outclassed in the end when
the race started to develop and the drop back in class is likely to
help him from top weight in a race full of improving types. Proven
at this level he does have improvement still left in him but whether
he has enough to counter the weight is to be seen even though he has
a fair few factors in his favour and wont mind the drying ground.
Tissue Price – 20/1
2. Kanad – One of the more
exposed handicappers in the field and one that progressed up the
ranks in his novice season and has a easier target then what he has
achieved so far. From joint top weight he has to concede weight to a
few unexposed types but is proven to go well and could well improve
again with the conditions underfoot improving and potentially
returning him to his best form which at this level is eye catching.
Tissue Price – 14/1
3. Tagula Blue – Has proven
class if you take his grade 2 novice success as genuine top class
form in which he beat the talented Moon Over Miami in what looks a
fairly decent novice event given the stables represented in the
race. Struggled since winning that race and has started to drop back
down the handicap, which has allowed him just below top weight in
this race today. This is most probably the easiest race he has had
since winning the grade 2 events and has form in those better races
that will give him a squeak, as he isn’t overly exposed. Ground has
to be a bit of a concern as he does need cut under foot to be his
best and may struggle against something more progressive under the
conditions.
Tissue Price – 14/1
4. Mountain – had no chance
in the early season handicap against the likes of sizing Europe and
Osana who have proved that to be a above handicap for this season in
there position in the champion hurdle market and Mountain who has
flopped twice at Cheltenham since making a decent enough start to
hurdling for Jonjo O’Neil at Sandown which had him fancied for the
Triumph hurdle of the back of that. Bit of a temperamental character
he was top class on the flat and may want further then 2M over
hurdles to be at his best or a big field with a strong pace which he
could easily have today. One not always to put to much faith in with
what we have seen but this rates as his easiest chance for some time
and with a lot more to offer he could make a mockery of his mark if
jumping soundly with conditions suiting him today.
Tissue Price – 6/1
5. Echo Point – reverting to
hurdling from chasing having been a campaigned over fences since his
days as a novice hurdler and may be using this as a sharpener for
the festival and a confidence booster after falling last time out
over fences. Looks quite exposed in comparison to the others in the
race and even though a listed class runner-up he may struggle to
have the pace of old over hurdles in what is a decent handicap for a
Monday race day at Hereford. Nicky Richards yard is in fine form at
present with winners on Saturday and Echo Point could run a fine
race here today if handling the faster conditions underfoot.
Tissue Price – 16/1
6. Oh Crick – Alan King must
be feeling much better with stable star My Way De Solzan back to
nearing his best in time for the festival and his Oh Crick has
struck up a great relationship with choc Thornton and will be hoping
to continue his progression with a decent handicap win here today
having already shown his ability at this level well already with a
handicap hurdle win last time at Exeter in which he had to work to
land but did readily in the end. Has quite a fair few things in
favour from past experiences but has to overcome the faster
conditions he is unknown on and could well run a big race even if
not having the reputation of the classy Mountain has.
Tissue Price – 10/1
7. Proud to be Irish – Hard
to weight up the Irish form in terms of handicapping and this horse
who comes over after pulling up back in August has fitness to
overcome as he has never won fresh and will no doubt be better for
the run unless he is a blot on the handicap for his return. Looking
at the form he has shown its unlikely he performs like a Tony martin
handicap blot and is best watched on this return to action.
Tissue Price – 33/1
8. Hue – another of the more
exposed runners in the race but still lightly raced enough to draw
some progression from changes to riding styles or trips etc. However
for today’s run he has been tried and tested under the conditions
and has form at this level and a nice racing weight. However there
are a few in this race that seem to progressing a lot quicker then
him and a few dropping down in levels to maybe just outclass him
enough that a place may be the best he has on his side, plus a few
question marks on the stamina side of things as he seems to prefer a
stiffer test then this.
Tissue price – 16/1
9. Supsonic – Created a good
impression when a novice hurdler at Sandown beating a useful French
import of Alan King when still with Philip Hobbs and has since been
transferred out of the top yard after never showing the same
performance and is really struggling for some form at present and
maybe is best watched until showing so form as he is talented but
clearly out of love with the game.
Tissue Price – 28/1
10. Presidential Royal –
Still with Philip Hobbs unlike his form stable mate and a horse that
was well thought off before flopping in bumpers and struggling to
come to grips with racing. Got to grips with hurdling and then went
chasing as he has been ear marked as a chasing type given his size.
However he flopped on his only start over fences making a crashing
fall and has since been kept over hurdles. Improvement is likely to
come for the sounder surface he will encounter today as he is well
bred for this type of ground and hopefully can see him return to
some sort of form with much in favour.
Tissue Price – 22/1
11. Approved Force – has to
be considered at this level having had his sights set quite high
already as a novice hurdler in which he was well beaten in a grade 1
hurdle race. Tries better ground for the first time since winning
over hurdles back in November and should improve for the return to
this surface after getting bogged down in the mud. Could end up in
the Fred winter handicap at Cheltenham if giving a good account
today and has a lot in favour if he could master the big field,
which his only flop has come in to date. Has strong novice form and
the weights are kind to him.
Tissue Price – 6/1
12. Silmi – Cant draw to much
from the trainer as he is unknown to myself, but his horse who
didn’t run to form in a grade 1 hurdle in France last time should
find this level a lot more to his liking and is the dark horse in
the field I feel. Could still be improving over this trip and under
these conditions the run at Cheltenham is good solid looking form
for this level and in receipt of weight to quite a few other similar
profile horses he must have a chance if still in the same form and
shouldn’t be discounted on the trainer or the run in france.
Tissue price- 9/1
13. Paddy’s Tern – Well
beaten at Newbury last time behind Orcadian last time and needs to
find significant improvement to close the gap on quite a few of
these and what they have achieved so far. Doesn’t come into the race
totally out of form and there is improvement to come but whether it
is enough for him to be winning this handicap it is hard to be
filled with to much optimism. The ground is unknown but on breeding
you would expect him to improve for the better conditions but his
best so far has been when there has been plenty of juice underfoot.
Tissue Price – 20/1
14. Mickmacmagoole – Hard to
know what would have happened if he didn’t fall at Cheltenham when
closing up on the leaders going as well as any in the race and the
fact the winner was made favourite for a grade 3 handicap hurdle
after that run. In a easier race then that day and of a low weight
he is still unexposed and been sent of a single figure price in all
starts over hurdles so far. A winner already over hurdles he has a
progressive look to him and in receipt of weight to other types
similar to him he could take all the beating with plenty in favour.
Tissue Price – 3/1
15. Star Of Canterbury –
Another unexposed type near the foot of the weights and having been
kept to novice events until last run in which he was pulled up he
may need the up most faith that he hasn’t been handicapped out of
winning at this level. His win over course and distance in a early
season novice event on quick conditions suggested that he had
ability to make it at this level as he hacked up in good fashion and
with a return to those conditions and track today he could surprise
from a low weight and may be one to give another chance to at this
level in handicaps. Has to prove his fitness but could still prove
to be a decent enough hurdler from a small yard.
Tissue price – 18/1
16. Salinas – better known as
a chaser and the one horse in the field that is very exposed as a
handicapper and shouldn’t be able to beat these progressive nice
types despite been at the foot of the handicap and at a level he has
won in the past. Hasn’t got as much in favour as expected and form
coming into this race is no better then quite a few of these.
Tissue Price – 50/1
Tissue – Mickmackmagoole 3/1, Approved Force, Mountain 6/1, Silmi
9/1, Oh Crick 10/1, Tagula Blue, Kanad 14/1, Hue, Echo’s Point 16/1
Star of Canterbury 18/1, Doctor David, Paddy’s tern 20/1,
Presidential Royal 22/1, Supsonic 28/1, Proud to be Irish 33/1,
Salinas 50/1.
Verdict – Not a
bad handicap hurdle for the track and the favourite could well be
ahead of the handicapper for this race from nearing the bottom of
the handicap and it appears the bookies are not taking any chances
offering under 2/1 that something else could well be progressing
into a decent hurdler to follow as this race is littered with
potential. Mountain was well hyped prior to his hurdling debut and
the two races he has been found wanting in have been races at the
strong end of the hurdling and could well still make into a high
class hurdler if jumping with efficiency on this better surface.
Approved Force & Silmi both offer novice form to take into account
in this race and the latter from a unknown yard has been given
little respect by the book and is best priced 40-1. The former looks
a nice type and could surprise the favourite here with some solid
form to his name while Oh crick is on a roll. A decent race in which
we have a grade 2-novice winner involved and should give a few
pointers to future winners.
Selection – 1 pt
win Approved Force @ 16-1
(BF16’s), 1 pt win Mountain @
8-1 (BF8’s) & 1/4 pt win Silmi @
40-1 (BF69-1)
Well Chief
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