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Preview
12 January 2008
2.30 Warwick Classic chase
handicap Grade 3 3M 5F Heavy going
1. Kilbeggan Blade - One of
two top weights in this race today and comes here in good form
having bolted up in good fashion at Sandown and the handicapper has
had his say for this race today raising him a total of 12lbs for
what is a tougher looking race then the one he won. The trip round
this sharp marathon shouldn't be a problem for this horse as he has
bags of stamina and the biggest concern has to be the ground under
this top weight for him as it maybe tougher then he is use too.
Paddy Brennen rides today after steering him to victory on his only
ride on the horse and may have just a minor role to play this time.
Tissue Price - 16/1
2. Naunton Brook - Could
easily have been the ride of Paddy Brennan for boss Twiston-Davies,
but this gallant front runner has been given the services of David
England again to take some of the much needed weight of his back.
The horse deserves to win at this level and today could be the day
as he stays, loves this tough give underfoot, and a sharp marathon
test should suit him to every yard. Last seen in the Welsh national,
he ran a cracker, making all the running. Given that the first two
home in that race are ideal horses for tough staying trips, he
covered himself in glory and has to be a leading player in this
event, which looks less classy then the Chepstow showpiece last
time.
Tissue Price - 5/1
3. Blue Splash - Third in the
weights for this maybe shows the slight lacking in class for this
staying race today, but nothing should be taken away from Peter
Bowen 8yo who on his day is a classy staying type, but there has to
be some concerns over the horse actual jumping around a course that
takes some jumping. If he gets his jumping right he could improve to
take a close hand in this handicap today as he has the potential and
Tom O'Brien may have picked the wrong of the pair. More of a long
striding galloper he may not be best suited to this tight track but
on the ground and a trip that is well in his range he could well go
close under Christian Williams.
Tissue Price - 14/1
4. D'Argent - This 11yo is
one of the more seasonal campaigners in the race and is back down to
a mark that could easily see him take this grade 3-handicap chase.
Given the track and the ground over a staying trip he has every
thing in favour under the guidance of Robert Thornton. Yet to show
the form he showed at the back end of last season where he put up a
performance that would have him go close enough in this race he
comes to head about this time of year and should run a big race
within the next six weeks if campaigned correctly.
Tissue Price - 6/1
5. Trust Fund - Has improved
since changing stables to the champion chaser and is hatrick seeking
today under another hefty rise in the weights after cantering all
over his rivals to win back-to-back races. Suited to the ground
today he could well go well but will need to improve again with a
much tougher race to overcome today in what looks his target and if
winning this as well Paul Nichols will be genius in my view. More
tricky galloping tracks have seen him run away with his races, but
he is quite exposed over staying trips and a sharp track may not be
ideal and the run may well come to a end today.
Tissue Price - 20/1
6. Philson Run - For a twelve
year old he is very lightly raced and has been campaigned towards
these types of races for most of his career and with the mud suiting
could run a big race but he does look up against it against these
today on seasonal reappearance despite last seen running a cracking
race in the Grand National. Likely to come on for the run he still
is yet to manage to make the frame at this level in five starts and
easier opportunities will be found when the handicapper cuts him
some slack.
Tissue Price - 33/1
7. Fair Question - Won some
small novice affairs last season and hasn't quite reached the top
level of chasing yet but there is still some time and isn't with out
chance at this level having run well on this ground before and
jumped well for today's pilot with the track being suited to his
tight running style. The trip has to be the biggest concern today
and he may be a better betting proposition when dropping back in
trip, but is worth another go at these longer trips and is one to
keep a eye on.
Tissue Price - 16/1
8. Sixo - Long time absence
shouldn't be a problem for this horse that was always at his best
when returning from a break and with the yard in form and David Pipe
set up being more then capable of getting one ready for first run he
has better chance then what it looks and could well be up to winning
this after a 1000 days of the track. Suited to tough going and stays
this trip he could be well treated for his return to the course and
market should be watched.
Tissue Price - 14/1
9. Not Left Yet - The second
of the David Pipe pair and the only runner from in the colours of
David Johnson, The run in the welsh national was too bad to be true
and better is expected today but I wouldn't be taking a short price
after that run on this horse despite the easier looking target as
this will be the toughest conditions he has encounter over a long
trip that he yet to show he is ideally suited too. Improvement is
needed and it could come for the tough heavy ground today but at the
single figure odds on offer it is hard to make a solid enough reason
to risk it at such a short price. His recent form he needs to
improve on and this is likely to be more of a watching brief.
Tissue Price - 16/1
10. Arnold Layne - The most
interesting horse in the race today in which Tony Mccoy has been
given the leg up for the first time and with the ground in favour
and the staying impression he has already created he could well take
all the beating with a good performance coming into this race and
even though this is a massive step up in class he looks more then
capable of holding his own at this level. Trainer has done well with
her limited amount of runners and especially at this track where
Arnold Layne has already got his head in front on only start here
and rates as the potentially most interesting horse in this field.
Tissue Price - 7/1
11. High Chimes - Has a low
weight for first attempt over the 3M marker today and will be
interesting if he will improve for the step up in trip today with
the ground on the testing side likely to suit and Paul Moloney
keeping the partnership in shape for a horse that is going the right
way. The track is unknown quantity and there isn't much to go on
with this kind of track but it is more likely to suit then not and
with the low weight has every chance of running a big race today.
Tissue Price - 7/1
12. Strong Resolve - Has a
better chance then what people will give him credit for as he is the
most exposed horse in the field and often gets talked of past his
best, but has been a great servant for connections and despite not
running to his best last time he still managed to snatch a victory
from the jaws of defeat proving that he still has the heart for the
game. Paired with his regular jockey and has the love of the testing
ground such as this he could run a big race from the bottom of the
weights today. The trip has to be the biggest concern today as he
has failed so many times to stay these marathon distances but in top
form at present could run quite a big race today.
Tissue Price - 10/1
13. Mr Ed - Best on good
ground and is the surprise choice of Tom O'Brien over Blue Splash
and connections must feel he will handle the ground after a top run
last time and a bounce back to form, there has to be some concerns
though that he is yet to encounter ground as tough as this and this
is further then he use too running over. Suited to sharp tracks such
as this and should be ready to go fitness wise. However he has
things to prove and is maybe best looked over today despite the low
racing weight being ideal for the conditions.
Tissue Price - 25/1
14. Mr Fluffy - doesn't take part.
Tissue - Naunton Brook 5/1, D'Argent 6/1 High Chimes, Arnold
Layne 7/1, Strong Resolve 10/1, Blue Splash, Sixo 14/1, Not Left
Yet, Kilbeggan Blade, Fair Question 16/1, Trust Fund 20/1, Mr Ed
25/1, Philson Run 33/1
Verdict – Not
the best classic chase in terms of quality for this grade 3 event
and Naunton Brook could well jump them all ragged, despite the
weight, after showing that he is as good as ever in the Welsh Grand
National. D'Argent is a big threat, if back to his best around his
most ideal track, while the unexposed pair of High Chimes and Arnold
Layne give an interesting edge to this race and Strong Resolve is a
gallant old boy who deserves another big run at this level.
Selection –
1 pt win Naunton
Brook @ 16/1 (24's BF) & 3
pts Place @ 4/1 ( BF 4.5-1)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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