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Preview
27 December 2007
2.05 Chepstow The Coral Welsh
National Grade 3 Handicap Chase 3M 5.5F Soft
The first National of the season, or the final one of the year,
however you look at it and this years Welsh national looks a cracker
on paper. With the classy jumping stayer Halcon Genelardies coming
to defend his crown carrying top weight. With conditions underfoot
and a perfect performance put up in this race last term, he could
win back to back Welsh nationals. This is if others lower in the
weights, who have the class, fail to give there running in this
contest. Something more progressive is likely to take this race and
a low weight is likely to help ideally today, in what will be a
gruelling gallop from start to finish, with the likes of Naunton
Brook, a bold front jumper taking them along under 11 stone.
Paul Nichols is flying at present and Kauto Star's success
yesterday was the best staying chase performance witnessed for many
years and he will be the first horse to get close to the 200 rating
mark since the greats of old. The trainer is looking for a big
Christmas double here today, with no less then four runners in this
20 strong run race. Gungdu, a novice winner at this track, is likely
to be well suited to this tricky track. The long straight is ideal
for his long striding galloping nature and the pick of the four, on
jockey bookings, with Ruby Walsh taking the ride. The claimer Liam
Heard has sided against L'Aventure, who is the most exposed of the
trainers' runners in this race for Geeveem, who makes it into the
handicap and will just have under 10 stone to carry, providing the
jock hasn't overdone the Christmas turkey. These two look the ones
to concentrate on from the yard, despite the 7lb claim helping
Cornish Sett, the trainers other runner. Geeveem has had previous
experience over this trip with a place effort and this gives him a
slight edge over Gungdu at the weights and over this trip. With the
natural improvement that the yard get in their second season from
their lightly raced chasers, he could turn out to be better then his
current mark, and could add to the growing wealth of staying chasers
from this yard.
However, the yard are unlikely to get everything their own way in
this handicap staying race and Philip Hobbs Hennessy 2nd Dream
Alliance, the only horse that could stay with Denman when they
quickened at the start of the month, could be the chief danger from
a nice racing weight. He's suited to these sort of conditions and
showed a nice jumping style in a big field handicap. With Philip
Hobbs starting to show some form, he could frank Denman's form for
the Gold Cup by landing this, and is likely to be used as a
yardstick for the champion trainer to judge his four in this
handicap, for an attempt at a 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup in March. Nigel
Twiston-Davies is another who will be looking to land this big prize
and his Naunton Brook is likely to go well from the front. But his
best chance may be with the talented, yet quirky Baron Windrush, who
on his day is a very talented chaser and is guaranteed to stay this
trip in testing conditions, having won twice over this far. The
track is the biggest concern for this horse, though as he does seem
best at going round a sharper track such as Warwick.
The biggest threat may be held by David Pipe's runners. David is
having a good time of it late and he has brought Christmas joy to
the pipe household, with the likes of Osana and Tarimbleu landing
big prizes this month, to possibly hold a small outside chance of
challenging the runner away champion trainer. Not Left Yet has
always promised to land a big race and of David Johnson's pair, he
is the choice of retained jockey Timmy Murphy. Over the Creek is his
other runner and he is looking for his second big handicap wins this
month. A fragile sort, he has grown and could be on the upgrade and
the claimer will help to offset a little of the 8lbs penalty
obtained to get into this race. This is much tougher, but he is if
of some interest and should go well.
Tissue - Geeveem 5/1, Gungdu 6/1, Not Left Yet 13/2, Dream
Alliance 8/1, Halcon Genelardies 10/1, Miko De Beauchene 12/1, Over
the Creek 14/1, Baron Windrush, Homer Wells, Sir remebrant 16/1,
Juveingeur 20/1, Preacher Boy, Flintoft, Dom D'Orgeveal 25/1, Idle
Talk, Fair Question 33/1, Naunton Brook, Cornish Sett 40/1,
L'Aventure 66/1, Korelo 100/1
Selection –
3 pts win Geeveem
@ 11-1 (BF 14.0)
Well Chief
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