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Preview
17 November 2007
2.35 Cheltenham The Paddy
Power Gold Cup 21F Good
1 - Billyvodden - Has ran
here four times over fences including a brilliant run in this years
Ryanair chase where he stuck on well to finish a close up 3rd to
Taranis, on that form of level weights he would have a serious
chance but there has to be some caution meet over the form of that
graded event in which Our Vic ran a very lazy race but still managed
to finish second beaten narrowly and this will prove back in a
handicap a rather sterner test to over come giving weight to some
promising rivals with a better portfolio going right handed over
fences, plus the added concern that of what mark the grand national
has left on the horse for his seasonal reappearance.
25/1
2 - Too Forward - Another to
have ran in the Ryanair chase at the festival and even though
receiving 6lbs in weight from Billyvodden he has a lot of ground to
make up on ground that would be quicker then ideal for him having
progressed last season with two solid handicap victories under
conditions that were far more testing then he is likely to encounter
today and is another that's natural progression looks likely to be
halted at this level and a easing in the handicap may see him back
winning again.
33/1
3 - Knowwhere - The Nigel
Twiston-Davies yard seem to still be inform and the way Knowhere won
here last time it was clear that the horse benefited from being on
top of his game for a yard that can do no wrong. Unlikely to benefit
for the penalty from that run as he is now 9lbs higher then he
hugely impressive performance in the boyle sport chase here last
season after a fall in this very race. Conditions underfoot are no
problem even though to be at his best which he will need to be he
would have preferred some cut underfoot as last time on the ground
he did hit a flat spot.
14/1
4 - Crozan - Was going very
well last time out in a top class melling chase race before being
outclassed and most impressive performances have been at this track
in which he was in the lead when making a silly jumping mistake in
the Ryanair chase and given that he had a easy lead in what was a
muddling race he may have gone very close to winning that race over
a trip that he bolted up in on Uk Debut for current yard and has the
services of Barry Gerghaty for Trevor Hemmings with Nicky Henderson
Stable preferring the other runner with stable jock up. However that
could be a blessing for Barry as Crozan is best caught fresh and
Micky Fitz has never found the key to the horse.
20/1
5 - L'Antartique - Ferdy
Murphy has earmarked this horse up as his talking horse for the
season and has already made a winning start this season after
landing the Jewson Handicap at this year's festival and enjoys a
stiff finishing track. Today's run will most probably have a defying
verdict on what this horse main target will be this season and a
defeat at this level may see him go the handicap route at the
festival, where as a highly progressive performance will see this
2nd season chaser take on the graded level weight races such as the
Ryanair chase. Going the same route as Exotic Dancer last years
winner did. Suited to a variety of ground he is most probably at his
best on this sounder surface and under a 3lb penalty he is weighted
nicely for this chase under a inform jockey.
9/1
6 - Idole First - Another
festival winner and loves this track for a yard that will be hitting
top gear in the coming weeks and Idole First has severally times
gone well fresh at a lower level then this and at this level may
just need the run. Goes on quick ground, right the way down to
ground that is on the testing side and loves a stiff track like
this, as he has a game attitude that stands him in good health. This
is a better race then the Racingpost Plate that he won over course
and distance at the festival and may struggle to confirm form with
the 2nd on 5lbs worse terms here.
16/1
7 - Il Duce - Alan King is
often the man to watch out for at Cheltenham these days and his Il
Duce is just below top class in my view and may just struggle to
have a handicap such as this in him after a rather hit and miss
campaign over fences which has been rounded off with a victory over
the hard to judge East Tycoon at Bangor. Ofarel D'Airy went well
here yesterday suggesting the Novice handicap form from last season
is solid enough but Paul Nicholls chasers usually continue to
improve in there second season over fences and may not be a fair
reflection on this horse chances and there should be better chances
when his sights are lowered.
50/1
8 - Bob Hall - Looked like
the winner over the last here last time but could only muster the
one pace in the finish under 11.7lbs and is likely to improve in the
finish for the less weight in the finish and given how he traveled
up on this type of ground and the weight swing with Knowhere he
should be able to reverse the form here with the run skinning him
fitter and AP Mccoy has a great chance of following up his win in
this race last term.
7/1
9 - Kings Brook - Landed a
much lower small field handicap chase last time under top weight
narrowly holding on from the unexposed Urban and needs a personal
best here today to land a top handicap that is a shade to tough
looking at the overall picture. Stays further then this trip on
sharper tracks he may want a less stiff jumping track then this to
be at his best and the form of that small field handicap chase
hasn't worked out well.
66/1
10 - Ponnemoth - Had no
chance with the exciting prospect Mossbank last time out at
Limmerick in which he had to give weight to a very talented chaser
who is being well backed for the Hennessy Gold cup in two weeks time
and Ponnemoth who ran a very creditable 4th and comes out of the
race at least 2nd best may be ahead of the handicapper for this race
today with a good franking of the Kerry National yesterday in which
he ran out a winner. The stiffer test of track should suit and he
may overcome the drop back in trip for this with a nice weight under
the ideal conditions and if jumping soundly could be taking this
prize back to Ireland.
8/1
11 - Bambi De L'Orme - Ran at
Kempton last time over the more favored 2M and unsure that the extra
trip today will actually suit him and looks a typical case of
getting him handicapped for the spring and aintree in which he
travels best around and is likely to be out on his feet coming up
the hill today. Ground is right for him and he does have enough
talent for this level to run a sound race but the handicapper is
likely to have him of anything higher then 135 these days.
66/1
12 - Copsale Lad - Looks to
be the stable number one choice over these trips now Fondmot has
been retired and Micky Fitz has decided this is the better of the
stable two today given the lower weight and his past performance at
a track that you need to find something of the bridle in which his
stable mate has some concerns over doing. The second in the Jewson
handicap from 2yrs ago he ran into a well handicapped plot horse
which was not for beating that day of a 3lbs lower mark and is more
then capable of running up to his mark today, campaigned lightly
last season with him taking advantage of his hurdle mark he has a
very good chance today back over fences then he achieved at Aintree
and being back here in a big field he has a sneaky chance of a upset
today.
7/1
13 - Private Be - Hard to
know just how close he would have gone last time when being brought
down here and given his performance at Aintree back in April in
which he gave a 3L beating to Bob Hall on 7lbs better terms it is
likely that he would have been just swallowed up by the pack that
was just behind him. If standing up we may get a better reflection
on how much he has progressed from his novice season over fences and
always have been thought of a horse who would get 20F from his
hurdling form in the mud he may just need a less stiff track to get
home in front but should give a bold fist of it today under Richard
Johnson.
20/1
14 - Palarshan - Made a
exceptional return from injury to finish second to Idole First in
the Racing post plate at the festival and based on that run there
should be no problems in getting him ready for his first real test
of the season and at a course that his returning performance was by
far his best. A dark horse in the field because the time off has
seemly improved the horse he may have just surprised that day and
it's to be seen if he can reproduce that kind of performance in a
harder looking race.
25/1
15 - Black Hills - One of the
successes stories last season in which he ran cracker after cracker
in small field handicaps, finished of the season on a mark 20lbs
higher then the start of the season and was well beaten on his
returning run at this track. Beat Ll duce here last behind
yesterday's second Ofarel D'Airy but this is much tougher and given
his last run in a big field and the disappointment of the much
higher mark this level of opponents may just be too much for him.
40/1
16 - Ballyagan - Ran well in
the kerry national behind Ponmeath and finished behind the same
rival in the Mossbank grade A chase at Limerick last month and may
struggle to reverse the form with that progressive rival. The 8lbs
better terms are likely to give him claims but his jumping needs to
sharper up as he travels so well in his races and find not as much
as it looks when given the kitchen sink, this shorter trip may suit
but will he be able to battle it out up the hill which is very much
needed at this track.
16/1
17 - Patman Du Charmill -
Sent of a very short favourite in a novice chase here last month at
the open meeting and ran in to one that was just to classy for him
as he got tired out in front and faded into 3rd, dropped in trip
here and suited to the ground he is likely to improve again over
fences but as a novice his jumping will be put to the test and it
took him a long time to master the arts of jumping which has enabled
him to be a second season novice chaser. Yard make sure he has no
weight with useful claimer David England taking him down to under 10
stone and the defeat last time hasn't cost him his chance in this
race, but he looks a shade below this level and failed at this
meeting last time.
25/1
18 - Three Mirrors - Given a stiffer
test of stamina today having sat quietly out the back to stay on to
grab 4th under Graham Lee and looked like he was protecting his mark
with a round of jumping that was to get him fit for this target.
Ferdy Murphy has turned into a cheltenham handicap maestro in the
last few years and his stable number two under ex-stable jockey
Keith Mercer could easily run a eye catching race today which may be
a clue towards the festival in march, suited to quick ground he is
likely to be kept clear of testing ground through out the winter and
has place claims here today to give him 4lbs for a mark that will
see him qualify for the festival handicaps.
12/1
19 - Vodka Bleu - Last seen
in the topham chase and he was well beaten showing that the
unconventional fences isn't to his liking and that the race at the
festival may have left its mark, best early season he shaped as the
winner taking a few lengths out of the field in this race last term
on first run for quite sometime and was antepost gamble, however he
ran into a handicap blot and didn't run well for the rest of the
season after the Hennessy and the break for this low weight gives
him a very good chance with ideal conditions if back to his best.
9/1
20 Granite Jack - Gets in at
the weights and is Paul Nicholls best chance to land this handicap
with the feather weight ruby Walsh doing the weight and given the
jockeys style of riding Granite jack is likely to travel up really
strongly with such little pressure on his frame. 3rd in the supreme
hurdle last season this novice is a exciting prospect over fences
and John Hales could have yet another bold jumping chaser if he
takes this field apart today as he looks a typical type for the
owner and adds much spice to this field today and champion trainer
has a riches of talented chasers who could have fielded in this race
but the sole runner today shows confidence.
4/1
Tissue Price - Granite Jack 4/1, Bob Hall, Copsale lad
7/1, Ponmeoth 8/1, Vodka Bleu, L'Antartique 9/1, Three Mirrors 12/1,
Knowhere 14/1, Ballyagan, Idle First 16/1, Private Be, Crozan 20/1,
Patman Du Charmil, Palarshan, Billyvodden 25/1, Too Forward 33/1,
Black Hills 40/1, Il Duce 50/1, Bambi De Orlene, King Brook 66/1
Verdict – A
decent looking renewal of this race and Paul Nicholls is very
bullish of his chances with the short price favourite Granite Jack,
who sneaks in at the weights and is thought to be top class on his
chase debut. Today could really tell us a lot about the horse and if
he is a serious contender for this year's Sun Alliance chase. He was
always thought of as a horse who would get the staying trips,
however he is rather short at best price 3/1 to find out, and there
would need to be a big drift on the horse, to make him worth risking
at a price in such a hot race to make his debut in. Bob Hall has
already shaped with much promise this season and at a best price of
14-1, he appeals in this race, along with Copsale Lad at best
price 11/1. The Ferdy Murphy pair are both interesting and the more favoured
of the two is rather on the short side at best price of 6/1 in my
calculations and the second string could easily run a bigger race of
the pair. Last years second is quite well fancied at 11-1 and should
make his way into the race to have a strong enough chance but
Wellbeing has to be taken on chance and the Irish Raider Ponmeoth
looks overpriced at 25-1 for this race and rates as the outsider in
the race and looks the 3rd selection to upset the favourite.
Selection(s) –
Bobs Hall 1 pt
@ 14-1(BF14-1), Ponmeoth 1 pt @
25-1 (BF29-1)& Copsale Lad 1
pt @ 11/1 (BF11-1)
Well Chief
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