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Preview
27 October 2007
1.55 Chepstow -
Sportingindex.Com Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) 20F
Good / Good to soft
1 - Special Envoy - fell on
last start back in April behind Two miles West and looks up against
it again here of top weight given the narrow novice hurdle victory
over Lead On back in March and the stone in weight is enough to stop
him in this handicap today despite the timely reintroduction of the
man in form Paddy Brennan.
Tissue Price- 16/1
2 - Supreme Prince -
Supporters of this horse will grow in confidence as the rain falls
with a outstanding course record at the track over this trip and
this once very talented chaser if returning to his best would have a
very good chance today against this level of opponents. Best with
some ease in the turf the ground could just come right for him with
rain forecasted for the area, but the speed for hurdling at this
level may have just left the 10yo behind these days.
Tissue Price - 16/1
3 - Le Volfoni - Was cruising
at the festival when coming down 3 out in the Jewson novice handicap
and may have gone very close that year if not for that mistake. The
stiffness of the track seems to suit this horse as he ran a cracker
12 months later in handicap company once again and is just below top
class for a yard that has so many grade 1 horses, contesting a
handicap hurdle here he has the guidance of Ruby Walsh who may have
struggled to do the low weight on the stable mate and shouldn't be
counted as the main contender of the champion trainers two runners
in this race just based on the bookings as he rides smart novice
Elusive Dream in the first. A fair hurdler on form shown he needs to
improve I feel to have a say in this handicap from current mark.
Tissue Price - 16/1
4 - Lead On - unexposed and
the second runner from the Philip Hobbs yard and potentially the
more likely winner of the two with a good weight swing for a neck
defeat with the top weight in this listed handicap. Yet to try this
trip the gelded son of Supreme Leader (sire of Supreme Prince)
should improve rapidly for the step up to this trip. Winner last
time at Cheltenham in a novice hurdle, where he won without being to
flashy over 2M 1F in his jumping he was driven out to score in nice
fashion and may have just felt the pinch to quicken before staying
on well suggesting that the trip was on the sharp side even at a
stiff track like Cheltenham. Chepstow also being a unique left
handed roller coaster should suit and should go very well today with
a nice racing weight.
Tissue Price - 2/1
5 - Don't Push it - Finished
the season looking like he needed freshening up having fallen in the
Arkle and then finished a very tired tailed off horse at Aintree and
is at his best when given a significant break in racing as his form
shows to good light with best efforts after a 50 day break. Back
over hurdles for his reappearance suggesting that the confidence
over fences may have taken a few knocks he is well handicapped of
127 over hurdles given the likely 150+ rated form he has achieved
over fences. Likes give in the ground and well suited to the trip he
has claims in his own right despite the absence of the owners number
one jockey, but you can't knock Noel Fehily.
Tissue Price - 3/1
6 - I'm Spartcus - Non runner
7 - Warne's Way - Well beaten
at Cheltenham in the Fred winter novice handicap and will be looking
to build on that form now in his 2nd season of hurdling for Brendan
Powell. 10L defeat to Goodbye Simon at this track over 17F wasn't a
bad novice effort but given the conditions of the track that day
there was some disappointments in behind and the winner was a very
easy victor of the grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle and needs to improve on
that to be winning a handicap such as this even though there isn't a
outstanding volume of strength and depth in this race.
Tissue Price - 20/1
8 - Mount Sandel - Another
making a return to the race course after a significant break, where
he was last being seen pulling up behind the impressive Amaretto
Rose at Haydock back in January and he is yet to win a race fresh
despite running well several times in the past first time out in
lower class races then this. Likely to come on for the run he is up
against it today with question marks over his well being and is one
to watch today for a owner whose horses make into nice chasers.
Tissue Price - 33/1
9 - Spidam - Formally with
Paul Nicholls but lost its way and was moved out by owner Terry
Warner to a more specific trainer for these types. Well beaten by
Bring me Sunshine over fences last time when sent off a very short
priced favourite, where he meets that rival on worse terms today
back over hurdles. Unlikely to have improved for a trainer who can
dedicate his time to the horses need more then the champion trainer
he was a very smart horse when winning at Sandown from the highly
progressive Kanpai as a novice and is one to note for when he is
lowered in class.
Tissue Price - 33/1
10 - Sobers - Winner when
last seen back in December he returns to the track after 10 months
of the track for Nick Gifford and may improve for the step up in
trip today. Best in very testing conditions this introduction to the
track will most probably be a pipe opener for the season for when he
is dropped to a more realistic level and has hock deep ground to
grind his rivals into the ground on. Record fresh is one win from
two runs so could be ready first time up but likely to play only a
minor role today.
Tissue Price - 20/1
11 - Magnifico - Given a
stiff race today for his trainer and likely to be on duties of
getting handicapped for a small race by being to far out of his
depth here today and is easily discounted.
Tissue Price - 66/1
12 - Cream cracker - A very consistent horse who runs well so
often and has a level of form that basically is below this level but
gave the impression that he has got a handicap in him this season
maybe not at this level but certainly when given a class 3 handicap
under 11 stone at this track having ran so well over course and
distance behind Eden Linty of Philip Hobbs and with that stable
double handed in this race it may be a big ask for him to be winning
this against a yard that will want to land this valuable prize today
and with a better quality of race horse in the race.
Tissue Price - 25/1
13 - Court Ruler - a
unexposed horse making his handicap debut over hurdles having ran
with much credit when a flashy winner of a novice hurdle at Ascot on
rain softened ground and was just out classed next time when
suffering from inexperience in a strong field for a grade 2 hurdle
at Aintree, where a bad blunder put paid to his chances. Only runner
left in the field for Evan Williams who would love to win a big
prize again at Wales Premier jumping track and with a low weight and
improvement to come may have learnt a lot over the summer to run a
very big race having been lightly run last season, and has more to
offer this time around.
Tissue Price - 10/1
14 - Bring Me Sunshine -
Didn't quite get home last time at Chepstow when finishing behind
Cream Cracker over this course and distance and was in front for a
long time suggesting that he had done quite a lot of the donkey work
himself and better may be on the cards with him likely to come on
for that run. Beat Spidam over fences last term and after his
jumping went to bits at Exeter he has been campaigned over hurdles
with that on the back burner. Looks to have more ability then Cream
cracker he should be respected with plenty in his favour and for a
yard who does get winners at this track and the addition of Tom
Scudermore in the saddle is interesting.
Tissue Price - 14/1
15 - Nanga Parbat - the
second of Paul Nichols runners and one that has been of the course
for quite sometime. Not sure if the young lad in the plate can do
the weight of 9stone 4lbs thanks to his claim of 10lbs but you would
think he can as the yard have other claimers with more experience
and the yard look to plot a horse up here with a very low weight
with the introduction of Le Volfoni near the top of the weights most
probably having a blow out today before going chasing again. Great
training performance if he returns back to his best today as he has
already beat his stable mate on much worse terms then he has today.
Suited to the give in the ground and best over this trip he goes
just as well left handed as right. Interesting from a yard that gets
them ready well.
Tissue Price - 8/1
Tissue prices - Lead on 2/1, Don't Push it 3/1, Nanga
Parbat 8/1, Court Ruler 10/1, Bring Me Sunshine 14/1, Supreme
Prince, Le Volfoni, Special Envoy 16/1, Sobers, Warne's Way 20/1,
Cream Cracker 25/1, Mount Sandel, Spidam 33/1, Magnificio 66/1
Verdict – An
Interesting handicap, where both Paul Nichols and Philip Hobbs have
a strong hand with the former plotting a horse out for this race,
with the return of the fairly talented hurdler Nanga Parbat. He
hasn't been seen for over 500 days on the racecourse. Don't Push it
is a very talented horse, but I have some reservation about him
since his crashing fall in the Arkle and 9/4 I feel, is a little too
short. Lead on is potentially a smart handicapper and if not
tackling fences, would be interesting in the Coral cup or the
Pretemps Hurdle at the festival. Even though at 3/1, he is my idea
of the winner, with a big space in my notebook for Court Ruler, if
showing some ability today.
Selection –
Lead on 2pts
win @ 3-1 (3-1BF)
Well Chief
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