|
Preview -
24 Sep 2007
3.10 The Tote pool series final
Handicap (class 3) 9F Good / Good to soft
1 – Just Lillie – Top weight
in this class 3 handicap and having to give quite a bit of weight
away to her closest rivals as she bids to get back on the winning
trail of this 7lbs higher mark then when last winning at this course
in a same sex conditions stakes race. She was in good form racking
up a four timer with wins over a mile and 10F so today’s 9F at a
course she has a 100% record should be to her liking, as to how well
handicapped she is, she has been found a contest that doesn’t look
overlay hot but it is likely she is just to high in the handicap and
improvement for a return to this track is very much needed. Hope
that ground doesn’t get to soft underfoot today.
Tissue Price – 12/1
2 – Hawkit – 2nd at the
weights in this handicap today but carries a nice racing weight
thanks to the inclusion of Just Lillie in the handicap. Like many in
this race he is very much exposed in the handicap. Well suited to
Hamilton with two victories here and well suited to this nine
furlongs as well. The ground has come right for him and he seems to
have a consistent level of form in these sorts of races. Yet to win
a class 3 handicap having only been at this level once before this
race is more a class 4 event in terms of quality contesting today
and he should have strong claims of landing such a event even though
it would take a personal best from the 6yo. Everything is in place
for him today with his best runs coming under conditions of this
race in the past and he goes well this time of year and for today’s
pilot so must have a solid chance.
Tissue price – 6/1
3 – Society Music – Doesn’t
fail to run her race and the introduction of Neil brown last time to
this horse was a well worked master stroke by the trainer as it
meant the weights would favour her from a handicapping point of
view, having ran so well under Philip Makin the two times before in
which she just failed to win. Upped 2lbs in the weights from the win
last time means she has strong claims of landing this race given how
consistent she is. This race looks a shade weaker then the one she
contested last time at Thirsk, but her record on those kinds of
tracks is much better then her one performance at a track such as
this in which she was so poor of a mark she has ran so well off this
season, worth another go at this track she could improve for the
extra trip, but the tacky ground may not be ideal.
Tissue Price – 6/1
4 – Regents Secret – Loves
these sorts of tracks and is particularly effective over this 9F
trip here having won 3 times over course and distance. One of the
few to have ran well at a higher level he is always one to have in
mind for the second part of the year having failed so many times
early season to have got his head in front. Dropping down the
handicap to a mark that if producing his best would be very hard to
have him out of the first 3 in this race today he is potentially
past his best these days at 7yo and may need further easing in the
weights with the ground turning against him with the forecasted
rain.
Tissue Price – 8/1
5 – Dark Charm – The 8yo
bounced back to form over the mile trip at this track when beating
Mystical Ayr for whom he meets on better terms with over this extra
furlong trip. Well beaten in a seller latest behind Sweet World he
needs to prove that he retains the ability of old to win of this
mark of 69 today having won off higher well over 2yrs ago. Jamie
Moriarty returns to the saddle for this run over a trip that gains
him no advantage on Mystical Ayr. Suited to the track gives him
claims of confirming form of favourable terms with Mystical Ayr and
such as a in and out customer he is, he could easily leave behind
the recent running in a seller.
Tissue Price – 7/1
6 – Mystical Ayr – Ultra
Consistent performer for Linda Perrert who has a strong hand in this
race with 3 of the 12 runners to contest this handicap. Stepping
back up in trip after a good run over seven the other day at her
favoured galloping track of Ayr, she has no weight advantage on Dark
Charm for a decent enough 2nd here over a mile as her consistency
means the handicapper continues to reassess her mark. Yet to win in
eight attempts here she is certain to run her race again of this
7lbs high mark from winning at Ayr this season. Well exposed at this
level she needs a big field in which she gets maximum cover to be at
her best to run of a sound gallop and even though this 9F trip will
suit just as much as the mile against Dark Charm its unlikely to
give her any edge and should run her usual race again with maybe
finding one or two to good. Heavy rain would help her further.
Tissue Price – 8/1
7 – Neil’s Legacy – 2nd of
Linda Perrert 3 runners in this handicap and another who is more
then capable of landing such a race. A galloping track has often
seen this Mare to good effect having recorded the three of her 4
wins at Ayr. However she is a course and distance winner when
bolting up here in a clamming stakes race in which the short price
favourite didn’t get home in the ground. Other performances at the
track have been mixed and on form with Ignition she has very little
in hand. Form with Hawkit on her more favoured Ayr track she has a
significant weight swing and with the trainer well armed in this
race she may well be up to reversing the form even though Hawkit
will be better suited to this track. Well suited to the ground she
goes well in the 2nd part of the season and has a chance of landing
her 3rd race this year if getting the run of the race.
Tissue Price – 6/1
8 – Best of the Lot – Very
unknown on ground with ease in and only one effort to date over 9F
makes Richard Fahey Best of the Lot a unknown quantity in this race
despite the fact he is rather exposed. Partnered with the stable
number one Jockey in Paul Hanangan he may not be the more fancied
runner then Dark Charm, but based on the win at Newcastle over 10F
beating Hawkit for whom he is 3lbs better of at the weights with he
comes here with some sort of claims in this handicap today if
returning to his best form. Tailed off since landing this race, he
did run well at Musselbrugh recent enough to suggest that he is
coming back to form. The trip should suit him having ran well over a
mile and 10F and the biggest concern may be the ease in the ground
with Rain likely and both runs at Hamilton has been poor to date.
Tissue Price – 8/1
9- Barbirolli – On a losing
run of twelve races at present having struggled since landing a race
over course and distance this time last year. Doesn’t win to often
with just two turf wins to his name and didn’t help himself by
winning by 3.5L here. Well suited to give in the ground in which he
encountered this day he should have conditions well to suit him this
time around and the introduction of this claimer has worked out well
in the past and it looks like he is set up for striking despite the
4lbs high mark still despite the losing run and should give a bold
bid in defending his title.
Tissue Price – 11/2
10 – Ignition – Well beaten
in the qualifier for this race behind no less then six of today’s
rivals over course and distance and clearly doesn’t enjoy quick
ground half as much as this slower surface as she had already beaten
the likes of Mystical Ayr on slow ground in good fashion. Well
weighted with them all including her stable mate she has claims
having performed her best runs with cut in the ground. Needs to get
the run of the race up front she didn’t help her cause by getting
caught in a speed trail up front in which they finished last and 2nd
last. The course is ideal and with ease in the ground she has a good
chance from 7.12lbs in which she just gets in at the handicap with
Paul Quinn a regular pilot for the yard doing the low weight.
Tissue Price – 5/1
11 – Mandarin Rocket – Runs
most of his races at this track and one that is very consistent at a
lower level even though still a maiden after 20 runs. Linda Perrert
finally runner of her trio to contest this race, He has some claims
on the best of his run but from so far out of the handicap and with
a very exposed nature over track, distance and on the ground he can
hope for a place finish at best it would seem
Tissue Price – 40/1
12 – The Mighty Orgmore –
Another heavily weighted against in which she has a stone to find
even though she was entered into handicaps off a stone higher mark
then she currently is officially rated. Tried over hurdles to not
much effect, she isn’t one to have too much faith in even though her
Ayr run she wasn’t beaten far by Mystical Ayr, Neil’s Legacy and had
Hawkit in behind.
Tissue Price – 66/1
Tissue Prices - Ignition 5/1, Barbirolli 11/2, Neil’s
Legacy, Society Music, Hawkit 6/1, Dark Charm 7/1, Best of the Lot,
Mystical Ayr, Regents Secret 8/1, Just Lillie 12/1, Mandarin Rocket
40/1, The Mighty Orgmore 66/1
Verdict – A very
tricky handicaps with many beating others that have come out on top
prior to that race and it should be very much a bunch finish. The
state of the ground may be crucial while Ignition may get the run of
the race from the front, however her stable mate won this race last
term and is interesting with the ease in the turf of landing it
again from 4lbs higher. Hawkit will once again by their about while
Neil’s Legacy and Dark Charm are taken to come out on top from each
of their stable runners.
Selection –
Ignition 1pt win @ 14-1 e/w (17.0
BF + 5.0 place)
Well Chief
|