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Preview
22 September 2007
3.10 John Smith Stakes Heritage
Handicap class 2 (3yo+ 0-105) 10F Gd-Fm
1 - Flipando - Zetland Gold
Cup winner has found improvement for this further trip this season
in which he hasn't failed to run his race, Suited to on top of the
ground conditions he comes here looking for a return to form having
found a few others to progressive. There are a few unexposed types
in this race to overcome from top of the weights of a mark 5lbs
lower then the ceiling. Suited to a galloping track such as this he
could find improvement over this trip for David Barron and defy the
4lbs high handicap mark to land this. Have claims of reversing the
form over this longer trip with Benandonner, but the weight may just
tell against a more progressive rival or better handicapped opponent
and the Zetland Gold Cup form has taken a few knocks.
Tissue Price - 14/1
2 - Impeller - Got up in the
shadows of the post to win for new trainer Stan Moore in a Sandown
race that has mixed form about it. Meets Both Bandama and Pagan
Sword on worse terms for this run in which they finished in a heap
and the form of that race may have just been below proper class 2
standard and Players Please also in this race has a 5lbs penalty for
a drop back in class to overcome, giving the form substance to
believe it was a pretty weak race and potentially wont stand up
here. Handles Galloping tracks over this trip he has failed to win
in 11 attempts at this track and apart from Epsom his best runs have
in the main been on Right handed galloping tracks. Hard to see the
trainer recording back to back wins with this horse in such a
competitive handicap such as this.
Tissue Price - 18/1
3 - Pipe Dreamer - Non-Runner due to
ground.
4 - Lundy's Lane - Non- Runner,
Bypasses this race
5 - Zero Tolerance - While
others have been taken out on the account of ground Zero Tolerance a
Mud Lark has been left in here as he looks to turn around a
regressive profile that has seen him as a shadow of his former self.
Last seen winning a listed race last season he has struggled over
this further trip as well as his ideal Mile trip. Has had seven runs
on ground that has been on the quick side and yet to run any better
then a place effort and he is around half stone at least a worse
horse under these conditions. Yet to dominate a big field handicap
from the front, he looks well held here even though the falling
handicap mark would have him of interest under the right conditions
and if he was to show something of like his old form.
Tissue Price - 33/1
6 - Seabow - Non-runner due to
ground.
7 - Bolodenka - Well Beaten
in Ireland last time and returns to the UK with the form of his
Ripon Win having been franked by the 2nd in a muddling affair at
Warwick and may be best not to take that form line as anything other
then a minor franking of the form. Five pounds higher then when
winning over a mile he is trying the 10F for only the 2nd time
having previously ran at York over 10F behind Rohaani in a fairly
decent race and it is a surprise that the stable have waited this
long to get another run into the horse over this trip. The stable
has four runners in this handicap and Tony Hamilton would have had
the pick with Paul Hannagan riding in the Ayr Gold Cup today and
interesting that he has opted for Bolodenka over the other 4 and the
return to this trip could have him back winning of this higher
handicap mark today. Tissue Price - 10/1
8 - Flying Clarets - long
overdue a winner this gallant mare is and the 6th at Goodwood has
taken a franking by the winner landing a listed race since. Exposed
over this trip she would benefit from some cut in the ground to make
the running off on this drop 2 classes after being given a
impossible task of matching Echo of Light from the front in which
she suffered in finishing last. Paired with a jockey who is
struggling for form she is likely to make a bid to make all from the
one draw but she looks very much held by the handicapper at present
from this mark.
Tissue Price - 16/1
9 - Peruvian Prince - maybe
should have won at York last time when just losing out to Greek
Wells in the finish and could be the leading player of the four
Richard Fahey runners with the experienced Richard Quinn in the
plate for today's run. Has been knocking on the door of late after
winning over further in an average handicap and the races he has
been contesting have looked strong handicaps. Upped another 3lbs for
that close 2nd he is now 14lbs higher then when scoring at Haydock.
Only 2lbs better off with his victor for that York run he has
continued to improve this season but this is potentially got more
classy types in then that race at York and he could find one or two
too good here, but rates as a potential winner.
Tissue Price - 12/1
10 - Bandama - Will need the
ground to stay on the quick side having tailed off when ever
encountering ground with cut in it and comes here today with a
weight pull with both Players Please and Impeller for that Sandown
race. Needs more in this race I feel, as this looks a better
handicap then the one they contested last time, while the ground
stays on the fast side he may be able to record a win at long last
having over evaluated on his 3yo form at Royal Ascot and Glorious
Goodwood. Well suited to this track he looks the most likely to come
out on top from that Sandown race but may find another to strong.
Place claims.
Tissue Price - 14/1
11 - Greek Well - Entitled to
land the York 10F race at the Ebor festival he comes here having to
defy yet another rise in the weights. Dropped to this trip after
being subject of a gamble for the English Derby last season he is in
no way pattern class but is a decent handicapper and has just taken
time to settle into his racing. Progressed from 76 to 91 so far this
season he should find the extra 2lbs hard to defy against Peruvian
Prince as his opponents come wiser to his ability and with the
ground quicker then he has been contesting since flopping as a 3yo,
this colt by Saddlers Wells may have to play 2nd best to something
with a little bit more speed in the finish.
Tissue Price - 11/1
12 - Benandonner - The last
of the four runners for Richard Fahey in this handicap this 4yo has
to prove that 10F suits as well as a mile having tailed off in the
Zetland Gold Cup over this trip. Suited to quick ground he may not
be able to confirm form with Flipando who beat him easily on the
only time they have meet over this trip. First try at this track he
is a exposed handicapper and unless finding improvement for this
strong galloping track he looks held of a mark that is 6lbs higher
then when winning a Ascot. Was outstayed in a smaller field handicap
latest over this trip.
Tissue Price - 20/1
13 - Eradicate - Long overdue
a drop back to his more favoured 10F having failed to build on the
haydock win over 12F against 3yo handicappers in which he had the
race to suit. Needs to return to form having been given impossible
group race against Papa Bull and then cutting his throat in two
decent 12F handicaps that have both been well franked by the
winners. This trip suits while the ground is ideal underfoot given
that he bolted up in his maiden and ran a cracker at Royal Ascot
under 9stone 7lbs so with the 3yo allowance and further easing to
his handicap mark he may have enough to return to form.
Tissue Price - 10/1
14 - Tears Of A Clown -
Another potential improver in this handicap, having had such little
running for a 4yo. Bolted up in his maiden and faired well at York
in a decent 3yo handicap. He was then put away for a 4yo campaign,
which saw him finishing well to just fail against the consistent
Emerald Wilderness. Found out when stepped up to 12F at Haydock,
where he was caught, looking very one paced under a penalty that he
got for narrowly winning at Ascot. Unlikely to ever score by much,
given his way of running, he should benefit for the return to this
ground and trip today. He would have been more suited to a stiffer
10 furlongs than this, but does have a touch of class and may defy
this 4lb higher handicap mark.
Tissue Price - 5/1
15 - Speedy Sam - Seems to
have regressed this summer and isn't the easiest to place in
handicaps from his current mark it would seem. Nine runs without a
win he is dropped yet another 2lbs in the weights for his effort at
Glorious Goodwood behind Championship Point and was a never closer
7th when contesting the John Smith cup at York behind Flying Clarets
and Greek Wells. Well weighted with the pair of them he has ground
to make up and is one to keep for the notebook for a all weather
campaign throughout the winter having achieved his best performances
on that surface and has not got enough about him on turf to reverse
the form with Tears of a clown who has previous quick ground form
compared to himself who has been kept to a slow surface when
contesting handicaps on turf. Has a claim each-way at a big price he
still looks in the grip of the handicapper and is held of this 8lbs
higher mark then when last winning on turf.
Tissue Price - 20/1
16 - Players Please - A easy
winner at Thirsk this week over further when benefiting from the
drop in class and the extra trip and has been found a tougher task
then the class 2 handicap he contested at Sandown in which he isn't
helped with those he meets from that handicap when staying on at the
one pace in a bunch finish. Further looks more ideal for him and
stable mate make more appeal over this trip today. Still likely
progression and a boost to his confidence may bring him on to have
claims with those more exposed rivals but a 0-5 over this trip and a
average effort over course and distance so far makes him have it all
to do under a 5lbs rise in the weights.
Tissue Price - 16/1
17 - Invasion - Set off like
a scolded Cat on all weather debut last time when running into a
well-handicapped progressive rival at Kempton. Stuck on over a trip
1F further then this and is unlikely to slip this field today on a
step back up in class. Has a weight pull with Tears of a Clown on
Ascot running but is more exposed then that rival and has quite a
bit of ground to make up but will be more suited to the ground
today. 4lbs higher then when winning at Newmarket in a class 4
handicaps he has got to find improvement to reverse the form against
some of these rivals, but should give his running here.
Tissue Price - 20/1
18 - Monte Alto - Ran well at
Beverley in defeat to Teslin in which he made a winning run just to
fail and the form of that handicap has been let down by the 3rd and
was a messy race in behind in which he had the run of the race but
is going the right way and could continue to run well without
winning now he is 15lbs higher then when last getting his head in
front. Suited to quick ground and a galloping track over this 10F he
is improving with every run and will need to show more progression
having been raised another 2lbs and contesting a tougher race this
time around. Johnny Murtagh booking is a interesting one for the
shrewd yard and even though drawn wide on the track he should once
again give his running if getting the run of the race.
Tissue Price - 8/1
19 - Pagan Sword - Bitterly
disappointing last time at Sandown having given a fair effort the
time before when finishing 5th in a bunch finish to Impeller. One of
the best weighted rivals to lbs to length from that race but has
become very hit and miss, and may have been flattered by that race
which hasn't shown up to well at this level so far. Dropped another
1lb in the handicap he is well exposed at this level and will need a
drop in class to be winning again. Has recorded efforts just as good
as many of these in the past he has a regressive profile and with
still currently higher then when winning 2yrs ago he looks once
again held in this.
Tissue Price - 28/1
20 - Mr Aviator - Ran paper
favourite for this close at Goodwood and has shown a good liking for
that tricky course and still has more to offer over 10F. A galloping
track such as this is a unknown quantity having contested mile trips
at Newmarket and Sandown which would be the closest to this test
today that he has raced and all racing has been done right handed so
far so there has to be a few question marks over this 3yo today.
Unexposed and 15lbs higher then last winning he has good form line
through the Ascot race behind The Illes with a few of these and
Richard Hughes has a good record on the horse giving this youngster
claims without getting to carried away with his chances. Will
certainly know more about the horse after today but 10F looks where
his future lies.
Tissue Price - 9/1
Tissue - Tears of a Clown 5/1, Monte Alto 8/1, Mr Aviator
9/1, Eradicate, Bolodenka 10/1, Greek Well 11/1, Peruvian Prince
12/1, Banadama, Flipando 14/1, Players Please, Flying Clarets 16/1,
Impeller 18/1, Invasion, Speedy Sam, Benandonner 20/1, Pagan Sword
28/1, Zero Tolerance 33/1.
Verdict – Three
year olds don't have the best recent record in this race, but they
have a strong hand in this handicap, with Mr Aviator, Monte Alto and
Eradicate leading the way. Mark Johnston, who has previously won
this race, is double handed with his youngsters and Eradicate could
easily return to form now, given the correct trip. The price 33/1 is
a massive for this horse today. However, in Tears of a Clown, there
is a 4yo that should benefit massively for the drop back in trip,
and with the race likely to pan out right for him, he has a touch of
class and can progress from this mark of 89. 4yo's have a good
record in this race. Bolodenka is the most feared of the 4 runners
from Richard Fahey yard.
Selection – Tears
Of A Clown 2pts win @ 10-1 (BF 12.5)
Well Chief
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