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Preview -
21 Sep 2007
4.40 Ayr Silver Cup Handicap
class 2 (3yo+) 6F Soft ground
1 – Northern Fling – Hammered
7lbs in the handicap for winning a competitive 3yo sprint handicap
at York for Dandy Nicholls , where the trainer littered the race
with his runners. The look of that class 2 sprint strikes me as not
the strongest piece of form that is required for this race even
though the fifth has won a listed event at Chester since (a track
that can have a major bias). The ground today will have cut in and
he has been kept away from testing ground in the past. Top weighted
in this handicap even with the 3yo allowance looks a tough
assignment and he looks best passed over with 5F undulating track
maybe pointing to his best performances in the past.
Tissue Price – 33/1
2 – One More Round – Returned
to form when winning a classified stakes race at Haydock , where he
beat a field of similar types to himself. Not the easiest to win
with he comes good of a strong pace. Ground with minimum cut in just
about suits him and he will need the ground to dry out to be at his
best here to win of current mark, classy on his day over 6F he is to
hit and miss to win a handicap such as this I feel.
Tissue Price – 28/1
3 – Orpsie Boy – Another for
Nick Littmoden and one who came out on top out of the pair at
Doncaster on Saturday. Off the same mark with Luke Morris claim
taking his weight down this is ever so slightly easier then the race
he contested at the weekend and with the weight of 9.4lbs on his
back he has claims if handling this slower surface to top of a
brilliant season. Going the right way he has ran with credit of this
current mark over the trip and is on the more favoured side of the
draw here.
Tissue Price – 10/1
4 – Green Park – Well beaten
behind Orpsie Boy at Doncaster and the Gosforth park winner has
disappointed in eleven races over 6F suggesting that he doesn’t get
the trip in strongly ran sprints. Soft ground should suit him based
on his Newcastle victory this season so the ground turning in his
favour is a blessing. Given no help by the handicap from the run at
Donnie he has to find some improvement and with the suggestion that
5 furlongs is his ideal trip a run behind Zomerlust at York in heavy
conditions does give his supporters some hope of seeing this trip
out well enough in a big field.
Tissue Price – 20/1
5 – Out After Dark – Never
figured in the Stewards cup on last effort over six furlongs, but
they don’t come any harder then that sprint handicap through out the
course of the season and this easier target today has him down as a
potential winner of this event on his best of six furlong form. A
good effort behind Ripples Maid , where he had the Wokingham runner
up just in front of him, would give him solid claims in this race
and a former winner of the Gosforth Park Sprint shows he has a touch
of quality about him, however he isn’t in the same form as when 3rd
to Ripples Maid at the start of the season and the last place to
Indian Trail latest leaves a lot to be desired from this horse. Paul
Mulrennan is in for the ride today and could well be on a
well-handicapped horse here as his 6th of a mark of 100 in the Gold
version of this race would have him a decent winner of 93. Low Draw
doesn’t look ideal.
Tissue Price – 16/1
6 – Gift Horse – Ran a
creditable race to finish just behind Orpsie Boy at Doncaster on
Saturday and was well drawn that day. The addition of a claimer may
help him to reverse the form with that rival as he will be 3lbs
better off for a short head and no surprise to see a former Stewards
cup winner turned out quickly on good fighting terms here. Dandy
Nicholls is long overdue another wins with this horse and another
winner of this race. Conditions are ideal and the draw shouldn’t be
a problem to overcome here with the likely pace up the middle from
Mr Wolf.
Tissue Price – 8/1
7 – Sundae – Given a chance
in this handicap after putting together a four timer in smaller
field races this season and the 3yo lacks experience of a truly big
field race such as this. Sprinters inform are usually wise to be
kept on the right side off and his strong travelling nature may well
be best suited to this field, but this is much tougher then the 3yo
handicaps he has been contesting and yet another 8lbs and rise in
class can hinder his chances enough to be of interest when dropped
back down a level as this sort of race may just come to soon today.
Tissue Price – 20/1
8 – Damika – Has the form on
soft ground to give a good account today, and is due a win in a
class 2 handicaps for some of the brave performances put up. A
winner at Ripon on fast ground when holding on Malcheek who went
well in Great St Wilfred handicap the time before the form of that
race looks to have solid look to it with Aegean Dancer having good
handicap form against Celtic Mill and the Tatling at Musselbrugh.
Well beaten at York last time the ground today help him to go close
in a class 2 handicap such as this and the six flat galloping
furlongs should be to his liking, the extra 1lb from the
disappointing effort at York last time is however another negative.
Well Drawn.
Tissue Price – 22/1
9 – Caribbean Coral – Was in
sensational form at the start of the season with eye catching runs
over the minimum distances and then was flying all to late in the
Gosforth Park Handicap which lead to him being upped in trip. Just
missed out at Ripon on first attempt over six this season and then
was well put in his place at Doncaster next time behind Golden
Dixie. Has had a month break with this in mind and his trainer is
one of the best handicappers out there so it wouldn’t be a surprised
to see him run a big race today with enough form over this trip to
suggest he is as effective as over the minimum trip. Has won of a
5lbs higher mark then this but that was a few years ago and his most
recent victory has come off a 5lb lower mark then that of today. Big
field and strong pace races suit and is interesting still in this
kind of handicap.
Tissue Price – 16/1
10 – Utmost Respect – has
been very lightly campaigned for a 3yo sprinter and made a very good
impact as a 2yo with a 7L victory in a maiden followed by a win over
a decent handicap sprinter. Poor effort at Goodwood , where he was
staying on all to late and may have founded that sprint distance a
wee bit on the sharp side. Newmarket a stiffer galloping track
should have suited him more and he stayed on to finish 3rd. The pace
of that race was strong and similar should be had here suiting him
to go close in this open field. If he doesn’t win today this
talented gelding by Danetime future lies over 7F and a mile where he
could end up in pattern races. Course and distance winner was as a
2yo this may be a little sharper then ideal but Paul Hannagan return
to the saddle is meet with Optimism given his 100% record on the
horse.
Tissue Price – 7/1
11 – Northern Empire –
Flattering run in the July Stakes as a 2yo has put pay to his
handicapping days until now as he recorded a mark of 107 on that run
and was finding life tough when returning to handicapping of a mark
of 102 at the start of this season. Dropped in the handicap a total
of 12lbs since, he has fallen to a mark that may still be a little
tough for him to win off. Laid out for this race with the continuing
trend of running him over five furlongs when his best effort came
over six, this cunning move to step him back up to this trip for
this race today could spring a surprise for a trainer with a good
strike rate at this track and has called on the services of John
Egan who is often regarded as a job jockey. Ground could well be
ideal and a interesting runner
Tissue Price – 20/1
12 – High Curragh – Ran into
a inform rival who is well handicapped on Tuesday and is turned out
quickly for this today. A recent handicap winner he is 4lbs higher
then when winning that race. A maiden winner on only start at this
track the 4yo best form has come on top of the ground , where he has
ran some cracking races against Dark Missile and Obe Brave. The
course suits his style of running and he does retain his ability
with little help from the handicapper meaning he doesn’t win to
often. Well drawn his stable mates are more preferred in this today.
Tissue Price – 33/1
13 – Continent – Winner at
Goodwood over 5F this season from a subsequent winner he has
struggled since being raised 6lbs in the handicap for that win.
Struggled with testing conditions in the Gosforth Park stakes on his
older form he has handled cut in the turf to fair enough level and
could easily run a big race in this race today if not to overlay
testing underfoot. Drawn right up against the fence he has good form
at Ayr with 3 solid runs to make the money from 4 runs here and
Jimmy Quinn knows what it takes to win a big race sprint handicap.
Exposed he is potentially mistreated against a more progressive
rival at the age of 10 and would be the oldest winner in some time
if landing this race today.
Tissue Price – 28/1
14 – Sunrise Safari – A
winner here over five furlongs when beating the hard to win with
Handsome Cross in comfortable fashion and goes very well for today’s
pilot. Beaten 2.25L over six furlongs by a former winner of this
race in Machinist he was very well beaten when contesting a decent
class 2 handicap over the same course and distance when last raised
into this class of race. Unlikely to come up against a handicapper
as solid as that as this could pass for a class 3 handicap he has to
prove that strongly six with cut in the ground doesn’t have him
running out of steam and with him more exposed now the 5lbs high
mark looks to have held at this level.
Tissue Price – 40/1
15 – Curtail – Will win a
race soon but not to sure this is his race having become very
exposed by the handicapper and not given much of a chance with 3lbs
added to his mark for a narrow 2nd to Barney Mcgrew. Hard to see him
winning and a return to Newmarket and a lower level race may see him
land a much-needed win. The Listed win over five at this track
wasn’t a strong race and better ground is much in the way needed for
this horse.
Tissue Price – 50/1
16 – Commando Scott – Rarely
runs a poor race when given the correct conditions and I would have
him as a potential winner of this handicap if he was around the mark
of 85 with regards to last years unlucky 2nd Zomerlust relations to
form with this horse. Currently of a mark of 87 he may find one or
two to strong for him, but is a course and distance winner landing
the second of his two wins with a soft ground win on soft over the
useful mudlark Rising Shadow. Not as progressive at that rival he is
consistent in and around class 3 level and benefited from a low
weight to finally win class 2 handicaps against in the main a
disappointing bunch of handicappers. Has solid enough place claims
but hard to see him landing this today.
Tissue Price – 20/1
17 – Dickie Le Davoir –
Looked a promising type back in May but was a early season 3yo who
liked to dominate small fields. The others have progressed past him
now and he is firmly exposed. Dropped to 2lbs lower then when
winning at Nottingham with give in the ground his form of those
early season handicaps are likely to be reversed with Northern Fling
progressing past him despite the weight turns today.
Tissue Price – 50/1
18 – Mr Wolf – The trail
blazer in the field and one who is likely to make this a truly run
race, unlikely to get his own way out in front with a big pack
snapping at his heels, he would be much more suited to a small field
with a bend having done most of his winning in the eighties at
Pontefract. The track suits him in that front-runners can maintain
the gallop and he is a six-furlong winner here at a very low level
in comparison to today’s race. Weighted to score he is best on quick
ground but has handled give well before and is defiantly a winner
next season in mid summer, so note book time.
Tissue Price – 40/1
19 – Imperial Echo – Looked
to have made a winning move latest when taking several lengths out
of the field only to be reeled in by Countdown in the final strides
over 7F on testing ground. Either he got tired in the conditions or
just caught a horse on top of his game the winning move came well
over a furlong out and the drop back to sprint trips in a strongly
ran race may have him return to form to claim a place in this event
today. A winner here over seven furlongs on Firm ground he handles
well a variety of surfaces but is just , where to win with but in
today’s pilot Paul Fessey they have a jock who has clearly got a
understanding with the horse. Best over seven furlongs he is worth
ago over this trip and looked as good as ever last time so wouldn’t
totally rule him out as just a seven-furlong horse.
Tissue price – 18/1
20 – Coleorton Dane – The
duck eggs spell disaster for this horse confidence so far this
season and are one I have had on the sick list since after a very
poor effort at Newmarket last time. Hard to see if there is any case
that can be made for those runs, He has been dropped yet another
3lbs in the weights and that 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup last year has
seemly made him fall apart since. That run at this track would have
him home and hosed in this off a mark 11lbs lower. Micky Fenton has
been placed on the horse today taking over from Andrew Mullen who is
on High Curragh, the hope is that a more experienced jockey who is
strong in the finish can get a tune out of this horse. Give in
ground suits and has gone well fresh before so may be a lively
outsider having been freshened up for a trainer with a strong hand
in this race.
Tissue Price – 20/1
21 – Varadouro – Can’t ramble
on about this horse to much as I haven’t too much of a clue about
it. Showed little in both UK starts but Dandy Nicholls always has a
trick and two with his runners and market activity may be best clue.
Tissue Price – 66/1
22 – Balakrief – Handles
ground with plenty of cut in and often runs well at this track for
his northern trainer. Missed the kick last time , where he was well
beaten and may be best to avoid the form of that race with
conditions that were quicker then ideal. The handicapper may have
his measure now that he is running in a better class of race and he
is exposed so we know his level and to many would have to flop on
the ground for him to win this handicap.
Tissue Price – 40/1
23 – Northern Dare – Ultra
Consistent and very game a sort of horse you need for a handicap
such as this I feel. Dandy Nicholls and Kevin Ryan make up most of
the field and this 3yo has a low weight thanks to the inclusion of
his other 3yo at the top of the weights so there is potentially a
plot being pulled of here. The run last time at Newmarket he was way
to keen for his own good on fast ground and kept on in the manner of
a improving horse. Would have possibly won that race and its no
surprise to see the winner win at York against older horses next
time out. Only raised 1lb due to being a close up 3rd he has ran
with credit on both starts at this course including in a biggish
field. 15lbs higher then when last winning he is very much on a
upwards curve and the jockey gets on very well with the horse.
Tissue Price – 8/1
24 – Geojimali – Always keep
a eye on Jim Goldie sprinters at Ayr and last years victor was a
very well handicapped winner of this race when swooping to get up on
the line from the consistent Zomerlust. Tracksuits and a strong pace
is required for this horse to be at his best. Beaten fair and square
of a slow pace set by Esteem Machine last time at Newmarket he
should be much more suited to today’s run of the race. Not as well
handicapped as last year and needs luck in running he showed a good
turn of foot to just be denied by Golden Dixie latest. Saleem Golem
is often the eye catching booking for this horse and surprising to
see him not retained for the ride today.
Tissue Price – 12/1
25 – Blazing Heights –
Another Jim Goldie foot of the handicap horse and another that needs
luck in running given the come from behind tactics used on this
horse. Best at this time of year he is best over 5F and should have
plenty of time to make his way into the race, whether he can
maintain his challenge over this further trip is to be seen and
there is no excuses to be laid on the conditions of the track with
previous good runs including rare winning form being recorded on
ground with give in it.
Tissue price – 22/1
26 – Makshoof – Beaten 4l At
Goodwood over five furlongs by the top weight in this handicap
today, the last of the four Kevin Ryan runners is brought up by his
3yo who should appreciate this return to six furlongs having beaten
the useful Genki over this trip. Lightly raced he does well after
breaks so the absence of 30 days shouldn’t be a problem. Potentially
been kept away from his favoured trip of six furlongs since winning
he has been outpaced in the two races over shorter and as a result
has retained a decent handicap mark in tact, Greg Fairly is a decent
jockey and will no doubt bid to latch on to the pace up the middle
of the track here. That York form could work out well and the
weights over six may just tip it back in the favour here of the Ryan
runner over northern fling.
Tissue Price – 16/1
27 – Pusey Street Lady – Has
been aimed at this race with the use of all age listed races to help
gain experience against older horses and now the return to
handicapping company with a low mark for this race, she has weight
being received all-round here bar one. Form behind Gloved Hand gives
her claims in this race even though he was receiving quite a bit of
weight. Has a good chance of claiming a place today.
Tissue Price – 25/1
28 – Pacfic Pride – John
Quinn has yet to find the key with this useful horse and he has been
dropped in the handicap to a very exposable mark of 80 having
finished last 14 at Doncaster behind some of today’s rivals, ran to
quarter of a length to Knot In Wood just over a year ago of a mark
96 under Jamie Spencer and that form of over a stone lighter today
would have him as a leading player in this race. Given a break of 27
days , where was used for his Coventry stakes 3rd recorded at York
and with a flat galloping track suiting in the past the key to
return to this track where he won his maiden easy enough may just
about do the trick. Headgear left off and plenty of cover likely.
Tissue Price – 16/1
Tissue – Utmost Repect 7/1, Northern Dare, Gift Horse 8/1,
Geojimali 12/1, Pacific Pride, Makshoof, Caribbean Coral, Out After
Dark 16/1, Imperial Echo 18/1, Coleorton Dane, Commando Scott,
Northern Empire, Sundae, Green Park 20/1, Blazing Heights, Damika
22/1, Pusy Street Lady 25/1, Continent 28/1, High Curragh, Northern
Fling 33/1, Balakrief, Mr Wolf, Sunrise Safari 40/1, Dickie Le
Davoir, Curtail 50/1, Varadouro 66/1
Verdict – A tricky
handicap, where Utmost Respect may prove to be a cut above these.
However, 3/1 is very short for a race where several have chances.
Out After Dark, on the Gold cup form last season, is pointed to beat
Coleorton Dane in this, and has to be value at 25/1. While Gift
Horse is likely to strike soon, but preference is for Northern Dare
at best price 20/1, while at the foot of the weights, Pacific Pride,
Makshoof, and last year winner Geojimali are feared.
Selection(s) –
Northern Dare 1pt @ 20-1 (23.0
BF), Out After Dark 1pt win @
25-1 (30.0 BF), Makshoof 0.25pt@
40-1 (55.0 BF) & Pacific Pride
0.25pt @ 50-1 (60.0 BF)
Well Chief
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