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Preview -
27 July 2007
3.55 Ascot – John Guest Brown Jack handicap stakes class 2 (3yo+
0-100) 16F G to S
1 – Enjoy The Moment – The ground is described as Soft in the
Post for today’s meeting and I expect it to be a shade quicker then
that as the course does drain well (mainly in the straight). Any
give in the ground on the evidence of the Queen Alexandra Stakes at
the royal meeting where this progressive staying type was so
impressive shouldn’t be a problem and his unlimited stamina would
prefer a stiff test which the ground could turn it into. Stays on
well from the rear the further he went at the Royal meeting helped
and was very unfortunate in the Ascot stakes as he was hampered
badly turning in for home when it is vital for those coming from the
rear to get the best possible passage through and the yard got
compensation late on in the meeting as he was the steamer for this
race and on the Chester Cup running was very much the one to beat.
Upped a total of 8lbs now since that Chester running and running
over the shortest trip since the flop at Epsom back in April. Small
Field shouldn’t be a problem providing they go a decent gallop in
front and could end up taking pattern class on by the end of the
season even though a tilt at the big staying handicap At Newmarket
looks the main aim for this improving type.
2 – Mudawin – 100-1 shot winner of the Ebor last year confirmed
his progressive profile for an upcoming trainer. Beaten in every
race since that run after the handicapper upped him in the weights
and is now starting to look like he may score again given the right
conditions. Has had two runs this season in which the first at
Newmarket on Guineas day can possibly be overlooked as he was worked
up in the stalls and didn’t do his chances any good that day. Skins
a lot fitter for the run he wasn’t expected to do too much in that
race on first run back for the season and can be overlooked on that
aspect of the formbook. The step up in trip was much needed and the
stiffer test of stamina next time out in a big field saw him staying
on well to finish a close up 3rd to Sentry Duty at Newmarket and
that confirmed to myself that he is still holding his form as it was
a good show. Likely to be campaigned towards retaining his Ebor
Handicap title this season he has been put back up 2lbs from this
day but the step up to 2M in which he is entitled to another crack
at could well suit. The booking of Kerrin Mcevoy isn’t a strong
related one as John Egan is very much the man for this horse and
maybe one or two others are stronger fancied by their connections to
land this prize.
3 – Ogee – very narrow winner at Goodwood last time in desperate
conditions when landing the photo under Frankie Dettori from Swan
Queen in a very muddling affair where they went no pace. In stronger
run races he has shown up well even if finishing rather one paced.
The run in the Wolfton Handicap at the Royal Meeting he plodded on
to finish 4th in a race that hasn’t been franked yet by two of the
first 3 home. The time before that at Kempton he was squeezed up on
the rail before sticking on nicely to once again finish 4th on the
Polly Track and the first run of the season he wasn’t ready for his
first run in which he finished behind Mudwin. Gone up in the weights
as a result of that win, and has to prove that this 16F isn’t beyond
him in terms of trip, having previously ran once over this far when
failing to stay on ground that may be regarded as to quick for him
as he hasn’t got natural pace. The underfoot conditions suit as he
has already proved and shouldn’t be totally discounted running a big
race with stable in a flying bid to retain their championship.
4 – Mirjan – hard to know what to expect of this ageing horse as
he reverts back to the level after a poor show in the mud at
Newcastle on last start over hurdles. Stay’s 2M no problems having
won twice over 2M at Newcastle including the Northumberland Plate a
few years back when winning narrowly. Handles soft ground and back
on a winning mark paired with the same jockey who landed his biggest
prize. Goes well fresh so no problems with a 266 days absence from
the track, but you need to take it on good faith that the horse
still holds the same solid ability, as he is now 11yo and the older
brigade haven’t the best record in this race in the last 10yrs.
5 – Odiham – Never figured last time in heavy ground at Newcastle
and finished well behind in 8th behind the likes of Tilt, for whom he
meets on 2lbs better terms today, for that running. Unsuited by give
in the ground, he stayed on at the one pace that day to finish in a
respectable position, in quite a solid ran race. Based on his run
in the Ascot stakes, where he beat home the unlucky Enjoy The
moment, where both had much in favour for a big run, he may have a
chance to finally win off this lower turf mark, than what he has
achieved on his favoured Polytrack surface. Back partnered with
Steve Drowne, which is a positive booking for this horse, and weighted
6lbs better with Enjoy The Moment, he shouldn’t mind the drop back
in trip going right handed. The visor is back on and he's capable of
a big run and should figure a lot better here, than when last seen over this trip
here, in a group 3 race where he wasn’t seen on a going day under Jimmy
Fortune.
6 – Tilt – 3rd in the Nortumberland Plate behind Juniper Girl and
has shown improvement on each run this season when being stepped up
in trip as he is rather one paced for these sort of trips. Future
could lie over hurdles now as ground with give in it clearly suits
him and today’s track if not drying out with a stiff finish should
well be to his liking. Paired with Jimmy Fortune one of the top
jockeys around this track and the right handed bend shouldn’t be a
problem having gone well on right handed stiff tracks in the past.
The Beverley race behind Kilamndscharo was a good run off today’s
mark even though the race wasn’t ran to suit and he got out pointed
by a rival who offered that little bit more pace and could have done
with a quicker pace, while the run at Ayr over 13F he could only
muster the one pace on quick ground when making a move so the give
in the ground will help him over his ideal trip and looks to hold
the best piece of form with that 3rd last time.
7 – Sphinx – Looked a very decent horse at times last season with
ground conditions very soft underfoot and the way he beat Wing
Collar at York over 14F was very eye catching. Gone very much up in
the handicap since this day and may be in the grips of the
handicapper now based on the two runs so far this season. The first
run this season over a course and distance that he likes he was well
held in 2nd from a clear-cut winner and went up 1lb in the handicap
from that day to contest a similar quality of race at Sandown in
which he just failed to hold on to 2nd from today’s rival Desert
Sea. That was a improvement on the first run of the season and it
was helped with the more ease in the ground this day as compared to
the run at York. Upped another 1lb and better weighted with Desert
Sea who was raised 3lbs for finishing a place in front. The extra
trip he has failed to stay on two occasions so far and may just not
see out this stiff 2M today in what is a much tougher race in which
he will be found out against better horses, the ground drying out
would be a major concern as well. Trainer does well with his limited
runners at this track.
8 – Monolith – Another hurdler doing his trade on the flat at
this moment in time and was one of the first beaten last time at
Newcastle in which he was quickly turned out for having ran 6 days
earlier at Pontefract behind thewhirlingdervish for whom he is 11lbs
better off at the weights with for 4 Lengths. That day at Pontefract
he stayed on at the one pace and was expected to have faired better
then he did that day but based on that run should be able to reverse
the form here. Better ground is very much needed for him to be at
the top of his game and he is one of the more exposed runners in
this field so he is vulnerable to a improver in this field. If the
ground was to dry out by post time he may have a chance of going
well but overall the feel is that he needs a drop in level to get
himself back winning, but he is certainly better then he showed at
Newcastle last time in which he got tired quickly in the conditions.
Stable is double handed and the view I take is the other booking is
more eyes catching then this one.
9 – Desert Sea – Snatched 2nd on the line last time from Sphinx
and may stay this 16F better then his rival so despite the worse
terms has to have reason to confirming that running. Ran well at
Haydock in a fairly decent class 3 handicap back at the start of
June and never really stayed in testing conditions at this track the
time before where he made the running before getting tired late on
and sticking on like a beaten horse to finish 7th behind Princlet
who was well fancied for the Ascot stakes of the back of that race.
The drying ground should help him as he does handle ground with some
give in it based on the running at Sandown last time. This is most
probably the toughest task yet given today’s rivals and the stables
are not known for their Ascot winners. The jockey clearly gets on
well with the horse but he has progressed to high heights since he
has ridden and he could have had a spell on the horse when he was
well handicapped on the ability he has.
10 – Thewhirlingdervish – the old boy has once again held his
form up well this season in small field staying races that he goes
well at and loves a slog in the mud of a muddling pace. Was all
dressed up with no where to go when encountering good to firm ground
at Catterick but was never going to catch the winner who had put the
race to bed early in the straight. Had the run of the race when
beating Monolith at Pontefract, making amends for a race that he
should have won the time before over 2M at Ripon. A Stiffer 16F such
as this should suit better then Ripon did and providing there is
give in the turf he always should run his race. As to finally
winning at class 2 handicaps at the age of 9 and putting up a career
best performance, It would be very surprising to see and at best a
place may be obtained from the foot of the weights today.
Tissue – Enjoy the Moment 2/1, Odiham 4/1, Tilt 9/2, Ogee,
Monolith 6/1, Mirjan 7/1, Thewhirlingdervish 10/1, Mudwin 11/1,
Desert Sea 16/1, Sphinx 20/1.
Verdict – An
informative race for a few handicaps later in the season. Enjoy
the Moment and Mudawin are both likely to be targeted at valuable
contests in the coming months.A lot will depend on what happens
today, as to there targets from the top of the handicap. Tilt will
once again run his race, providing that the ground stays testing, and
he should be in the shake up. Lenny Lungo's pair gives the race an
interesting edge and Monolith could run a big race at a massive
price of 25/1. Odiham is a hard to win with horse, but 14-1 on a
right handed track that dries quickly, could look a big price by post
time. With Steve Drowne back on top, he may well do the trick
today, off a fair handicap mark here. He could cause the fav the most
problems, who is the clear class horse of the race and improving.
Selection – Odiham
2pts win @ 14-1 (16BF)
Well Chief
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