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Preview
24 July 2007
7.50 Musselbrugh Edinburgh
Evening News Handicap Class 3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1M Good
1 - Benandonner - Yet to get
of the mark for current trainer Richard Fahey after leaving Ed
Dunlop yard during the winter and may need rain to be at his best to
make all in a lower class race then before where he finished 3rd to
the progressive European Dream who had top weight in this handicap
in testing conditions and may not have been the strongest class 2
handicap at York. Handles good ground but looks to be struggling
with the handicapper at present and this may be a to sharp test for
him and a more naturally speedy rival may have one to many gears for
him.
Tissue Price - 14/1
2 - Wigwam Willie - Outstayed
the regressive shot to fame two runs back and then was put in his
place when tackling a similar type of handicap over a mile on quick
ground. The slightly less fast ground today should suit him and
trainer Kevin Ryan does well at this track, but the 3lbs higher mark
with no bottomless ground this time around should see lighter
weighted rivals better here and his performance behind Plum Pudding
at Newmarket proved that even though he does handles it a more
progressive rival under these conditions should have his measure
here.
Tissue Price - 14/1
3 - Il Castango - Is going
the right way since winning at Redcar over a mile from Webbow, who
franked the form next time out and with the unexposed Soccerjackpot
back in 3rd, who ran well in a decent 3yo handicap, he may still
have more to offer, despite the 8lbs higher mark than this day. The
last run at this track over 7F was potentially a little short for
him, as he just failed behind Carnivore. Earlier form with Hula
Ballew and H Harrison, has Brian Smart calling on the services of a
claimer from Tom Eaves to give him some help at the weights for a
in-form trainer, whose youngsters does very well at this track and
even though more improvement is respected, as long as the ground
continues to dry out.
Tissue Price - 4/1
4 - Emerald Bay - Well beaten
by H Harrison over 7F here and finds himself very much better off at
the weights today. However, he has a lot of ground to make up and
the extra furlong should suit him having won over course and
distance, when beating Frank Crow, who only meets him on 4lbs better
terms than that day and that race was a bit of a muddling affair, where
he had the run of the race on the front end. Isn't certain to
confirm form at the weights today, in a class of race that he has
been held, off marks this high in the past and others make more
appeal today.
Tissue Price - 14/1
5 - H Harrison - As good as
ever at the age of seven and is seeking a forth win this season, where
he has had a steady rise in the weights up to 82 for today. At his
best under today's likely conditions of good ground and goes well
for Andrew Elliot, who has won on this horse 4 times in the past.
Always being caught last time at Chester, as the handicapper started
to catch him up and with a 0-10 over 8F, this seven-furlong
specialist may find it a bit tougher today against genuine milers.
He has nothing to spare at the weights today with Il Castango, on
their run at Catterick and there must be a limited amount of
improvement to come from the seven year old now.
Tissue price - 7/1
6 - Hula Ballew - Caught the
eye behind Flipando at Thirsk on her 3rd start this season and that
form has been well franked by the winner, who finished 2nd in the
Royal Hunt cup. Previously had been well beaten behind Frank Crow
and Emerald Bay and she was snatched up, when not finding much room
when the race developed off a muddling pace. She takes a run or two
to get ready for big runs. She is more then capable at today's
weights to reverse form with both of those rivals, as the ground
comes right for her, as she can be discounted the average run last
time, where she lacked the finishing kick of ground that would have
been regarded as too slow for her. She is, in the main, kept away
from ground as soft as that and she should have claims at this
level, under Philip Makin, who has ridden her to 5 of her 7
victories, but she is vulnerable to a more progressive rival today
off a 6lbs higher mark and has a fairly exposed profile.
Tissue price - 8/1
7 - Voodoo Moon - One of the
potential improvers in the field, being the only 3yo in the race,
for top Scottish trainer Mark Johnston. However, she is fairly
exposed, having won only 2 of her 14 races she has contested, but it
must be noted that class 3 handicaps has seen her go well so far
this season, having won the last time she was contesting this level.
However, this is tackling older horses, and she doesn't have a
progressive profile to her form. She looks one of those types who
won't ever amount to much. Greg Fairly knows this horse well and for
a trainer that has landed 16 winners in 106 handicaps in all age
races here she is respected from that aspect as she tackles in the
main old exposed handicappers with weight allowances giving her a
chance at the weights. The drying conditions is likely to help her
as she attempts to break her maiden tag over a mile having recorded
both victories over a furlong less and remains a interest with only
a 2lbs higher mark then when beating the same age group at Beverley.
Tissue price - 6/1
8 - Nevada Desert - 10lbs
higher then when winning a heavy ground mile race at Haydock last
season and has struggled in the main on the turf this season. 6lbs
better off with Hullew Ballew based on the running behind Flipando
for 1L and may well reverse that form today with the Whitaker Stable
in much better form then they were back then and with the trainer
good record in handicap at this track he may be able to defy the
weights today as he has most probably his best chance on turf since
last season and finds himself well weighted with Wigwam Willie for
whom he will handle the drying conditions better. A stiffer test or
cut in the ground seems to see him get his head in front and he
might just flatten out at the business end here today and the
claimer has failed to get him winning and even with form lines
suggesting he could win here he looks likely to be just out pointed
by a horse with more gears in the finish.
Tissue Price - 10/1
9 - Fremen - Another 7yo in a
race that is littered with them and potentially one of the best
milers in the field at the weights today but the underfoot
conditions may well not be ideal in what promises to be a very
strong pace and he may well be staying on all to late. Tailed off
here last time when finishing 13th of 14 over 7F under quick ground
and unless there is rain here today is likely to be outpaced before
sticking on. A 3 times winner on good ground and quick ground his
best performances have come with cut in the ground such as the close
up 3rd at York over 9F and even though a class 3 winner over a mile
on quick ground at York that race was a moderate pace race , where
he had the run of the race with the classier runners in the field
suffering being held up in the rear. Well handicapped again he does
have claims but unlikely to have the most ideal race for him today
and needs to return to form to win this but you can never discount
Dandy Nicholls at this track today.
Tissue price - 10/1
10 - Stoic Leader - Been
tried over a variety of trips lately for the Fisher yard and even
though potentially best over 7F he has solid efforts over 8F and is
back below his last winning mark after a 8 race losing run. The
ground is ideal and he should have the ideal weight run for him to
have a chance at getting his head in front, but even though his
recent form has been consistent he looks a shade below his best and
maybe time is starting to catch him up after 123 runs in six years.
Won at the track five times including a mile he has only ever won
once at this level and may be best when dropped to a low level.
Tissue Price 9/1
11 - Fiefdom - 19 runs
without a win and only 5yo this gelding has been expensive to follow
and the form behind Stoic Leader and Il Castango he was given every
chance and couldn't find the speed of his rivals that day and is
partnered with Neil Brown today in the hope that the weights can be
reversed with the extra 7lbs claimed. Potentially a difficult ride
the young inexperienced lad may struggle to hold him together to
land this handicap. The extra furlong isn't likely to help his
claims but the drying ground is very much in favour after rain
dampened his chances last time here and he may give a much bolder
show with the stable double handed in this but needing to find some
form with a failure to make the frame on last 19 runners.
Tissue price - 12/1
12 - Regents Secret - Will
have the pace to aim at and the ground and trip makes him have a
strong chance today with some solid pace wise efforts over this trip
and on drying ground. Flat galloping tracks however in the past
haven't suited and sharper turning tracks also has seen him fail to
sparkle so the strong pace here is the hope that he can pick them
all off under a 7lbs claimer who makes him weighted to go well.
Course form isn't brilliant with a 0-9 record here and with wins
coming at Carlisle over a mile and 9F at the lesser stiff track
Hamilton a lot is dependent on the pace of the race setting it up,
but the claimer will have to time it perfectly and he is back on a
winning mark.
Tissue Price - 12/1
13 - Frank Crow - At the foot
of the weights and with good solid course form to his name,
including a interesting 2nd in a muddling race at this track , where
he stuck on at the one pace after travelling keenly in behind the
pace and a stronger pace may well see him to better light here. The
first choice on jockey booking for Jim Goldie and has to have claims
with the ground in favour and a drop to 2lbs below his last handicap
win which was over course and distance in a small field and despite
possibly needing a strong pace to be at his best, small fields has
seen him to best light and may find one that is better suited to
today's race.
Tissue Price - 10/1
Tissue - Il Castango 4/1, Voodoo moon 6/1, H Harrison 7/1,
Hula Ballew 8/1, Stoic Leader 9/1, Fremen, Nevada Desert, Frank crow
10/1, Fiefdom, Regents Secret 12/1, Wigwam Willie, Emerald Bay,
Bennandonner 14/1.
Verdict – Plenty
of pace involved in this race, but if the ground becomes quick, they
will all have to go some to peg back Il Castango in this race today.
He has plenty of pace over a mile. Regents Secret is one to keep on
side of, when given a stiffer test with a strong pace, while the top
weight is a soft ground handicapper winner in the coming month. Hula
Ballew may well go well again, in an open handicap, while the 3yo
Voodoo Moon has been given a chance by her talented trainer in this
race. Nevada Desert is always a threat, but may find one too good,
while the bottom weight Frank Crow goes well over course and
distance.
Selection –
Il Castango 1pt
win @ 7-1 (BF10's) & Voodoo Moon
1pt win @ 8-1 (BF12's)
Well Chief
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