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Preview
14 July 2007
3.15 York 48th John Smith Cup
(Heritage Handicap) class 2 (3yo+) 9F Soft
Draw - Double figure draws are usually a negative in this race,
but not enough to totally discount the runners in this handicap. Two
winners in the past ten running on this race, the ultra talented
Mullins Bay and the talented hurdler Arcalis.
1 - Luberon - Been struggling
in handicaps since successful over 12F at this very track beating
gringo and dropping back in trip in hope that this will be a return
to form. Soft ground hasn't been encountered since running 2nd to
Zennerman over 7F at Warwick, which he hung when asked to put the
race to bed. Kept away from this type of ground since and the only
time he has ran where there has been cut in the ground was at the
July course when never going the pace to make his usual making the
running in a small field and draw 16 today along with several others
making the pace is a negative.
2 - Emirates - Non-runner
3 - Flipando - Second in the
Royal Hunt Cup this season but well beaten by the impressive winner
that day. Often seen to good effect on quick ground he has been in
very good form this season under Jamie Spencer and finds himself of
a career high mark. The 9F should suit as he stays well and a strong
pace should see him sticking on well if as effective on the ground.
Kept away from soft ground in the past, the career high mark and the
weight on this type of ground is likely to be his undoing today.
4 - Star of Light - Non-runner
5 - Hitchcock - Un-penalised
for the storming finish put together in the Wolfton Handicap for a
trainer who has a good record at York with the rare handicappers he
sends here and having won this race 2yrs ago with Mullins Bay the
step down in trip as done with that runner from this ascot race
worked a dream so they should know if he will see this shorter trip
out today. Sired by Giants Causeway the ground shouldn't be a
problem as proved at Ascot but if anything the trip may be on the
short side as he was found of the bridle before sticking on further.
Stronger pace today is likely to help and he could be another group
horse in a handicap based on the way he charged home. Mullins Bay
when 2nd in the Wolfton handicap travelled up strongly where as this
Irish Raider got stronger as the race went on and this could be a
trail for a Ebor.
6 - Pevensey - Winner of the
Wolfton handicap and on this occasion it was won by a handicapper
through and through and it will be a great testament to the training
skills of John Quinn if he was to get this runner to progress to
limited class company. A stayer taking the drop down in trip here
isn't an eye catcher under a 5lb higher mark. Fluffed his lines when
here last time over 10F and could never quicken from the rear to
make a impact and this trip should see him sticking on all to late
even though the strong pace is likely to suit his stamina.
7 - Speedy Sam - Ran well
over this trip at the speed track of Wolverhampton when behind the
useful Ordnance Row who has progressed on turf since and should be
up with the pace here from his inside draw. Respected in handicaps
for a trainer that does well with his all handicappers in all age
races such as this. The easy game isn't a concern as it is for most
but is better suited to on top of the ground and needs every thing
in favour to win this handicap and the ground isn't likely to be
enough to bridge the gap in this open handicap.
8 - Charlie Tokyo - First of
5 runners for Richard Fahey and one that looks to have been kept for
handicaps around this time of the year having been kept of the track
since the Chester Cup meeting when finishing 4th in a muddling
handicap that has been well franked. A soft ground winner when
beating new stable mate Benandonner at Windsor and that rival went
well yesterday in a handicap. Goes well for today's jockey (412) and
even though 8lbs high in the handicap from last winning mark he has
a few things in favour today with a good effort over 9F at Ayr on
testing ground when making late headway of a moderate pace. The
trainer is looking to win this race with the ammo he has over trips
such as this and is a leading trainer at the course so is respected.
9 - Fortunate Isle - Finally
realising his potential and is on a hat-rick bid here for Richard
Fahey. Likely to make the running he could well be employed to set
the gallop for the stable other runners under Dale Gibson today who
takes over for Tony Hamilton who chooses the unexposed runner at the
foot of the weights for the trainer. Had previously shaped well over
this trip at Newmarket behind the useful Pinpoint and Supaseus and
on the basis that the ground has come right for him, but a wide draw
means he has to get away well here and may just be handicapped up to
his best with another 5lbs added to his mark and a rather
competitive field to counter for (best in small fields) his stable
mates may just be too strong for him today.
10 - Fort Churchill - Non-Runner
11 - Flying Clarets - flopped
last time at Epsom over 12F in which she didn't handle the turns as
well as she does on a flat galloping track such as this. Kept on
going when headed here over 10F behind Emirates Skyline and showed
good pace throughout to suggest that 9F will be her best trip. A
winner over a mile as well as 10F she has a mixture of speed and
stamina that should see here go well here with a very good course
record. Form on soft ground has been kept to further and there is no
suggestion that this shorter trip on this ground will un-suit but
there is a possibility that her speed will be blunted. Good draw to
settle up with pace but if they are likely to go the quick pace as
expected up front she may well once again be claimed in the final
3rd of the race. Kevin Darley a surprising booking.
12 - Smart Instinct -
Interesting runner from a stable that we have already touched on as
having strong claims to win this race with quarter of the runners in
the race and this smart 3yo will be hoping to bid to become the 4th
3yo to win this in the last 10yrs. Paired with Neil Callen who is
riding with much confidence at present. Tough ask on soft ground
against more progressed and battle hardened horses this 3yo has
already proved to enjoy a slog as a 2yo over sprint distances. 4th
over 7F here behind Shmookh who has a very good turn of foot and a
4th in a handicap at Haydock that is really standing up well so far
this season. Has shaped well on both of these starts staying on
strongly from of the pace and with soft ground on breeding suiting
and looks handicapped to go well in this today with a strong pace
suiting.
13 - Avoriaz - The other
unexposed handicapper in this race for Richard Fahey and the last of
the five runners in this handicap today. Won on handicap debut after
failing to win in two starts in maidens for his current trainer and
should handle the ground today. Another who likes to race up the
pace for the trainer having taken close order in a average 9F
handicap last time at Ayr where he stuck on well to win by a
comfortable 1.75L from Shy Glance in only a fair handicap. Much
stiffer task it is the choice of Tony Hamilton who takes the ride on
the unexposed runner having won on him last time and clearly expects
there is more to come. Needs to step up on form his level of
performances haven't been as fetching as that of Smart Instinct and
with the weight allowance for that rival making them identically
weighted with run of the race likely to set it up for a closer.
Respecting the jockey choice and the fact he is on the upgrade he is
of some interest being by Desert Prince who sires decent soft ground
performers and a inside draw very much suited.
14 - Balliebrough - Has found
it hard to win a handicap this term, but all his races the form
stacks up well with the Wolverhampton Polly track form the exception
here. His turf efforts behind Emirates Skyline worked out well in
the Zetland Gold Cup and his soft ground form at Redcar has taken a
major boost with the ease in which European Dream won yesterday of
10 stone here yesterday. That day At Redcar the ground was similar
to what it is likely to be today and Balliebrough looked the winner
until the final 50 yards where he idled his chance away when in
front to early. The change of jockey is in no way a negative with
Greg Fairley a capable claimer taking him back down to the mark
where he was just denied and the pairing with Brian Ellison (7-25) a
big positive as he displays the talent of the young lad well and
this is his time of year. With a low weight has a major chance in
this handicap.
15 - Collateral Damage - Has
been disappointing so far this season with a handicap mark to go
well and was well beaten over 10F here when encountering some of
today's rivals. Tim Easterby is one of the leading trainers up north
and has his runners running well at present so there are no excuses
for this horse today. The ground suits and better is expected then
what he showed last time when beaten by Fortunate Isle at Ripon when
badly hampered before sticking on for a moderate 3rd. A course
winner over 7F when beating the useful Skhilling Spirit on Soft
ground and ran a cracker over this mile when 3rd behind the decent
Army of Angles. Handicapper is not giving him any chances as he
extends his 13-losing run. The draw isn't a negative as he will be
dropped in behind to produce his challenge late, but being quite
exposed of this mark u cant totally discount but you have to have
the patience of a saint with this horse and in most he is rather one
paced.
16 - Kyoto Summit - Mick
Easterby another who does well with his handicappers at York saddles
this lightly raced 4yo having given the horse a break since rather
disappointing over 12F in which he had previously gone well over in
the past when not disgraced behind a bunch of useful middle distance
runners at Ripon. The race may have come to soon having been
campaigned lightly and is likely to show much better today having
previously bolted up when beating Kerrmuir Lass at Nottingham on
Soft ground to break his maiden tag while with Luca Cumani. Will be
suited to the race today and is drawn to drop in and if improving
for the break in racing should go well in an open handicap.
17 - Folio - A good horse
with cut in the ground and well suited to the tight turning track of
Windsor where he was successful on good to soft ground back in
Novemeber and finds himself very well handicapped here with Charlie
Tokyo on Pontefract running. Form so far this season where he has
been lightly campaigned has been bitterly disappointing at tracks he
should have gone better and even though back to a good handicap mark
and for a trainer that does well in these handicaps he may need some
help with the handicapper and his course form including when
encountering ground as soft as this has been poor.
18 - Resonate - Ran well last
time Epsom that is a track that he often saves his best for and was
not disgraced behind Lake Poet another who enjoys the track. 12lbs
higher then when last winning a handicap he may just be in the grip
of the handicapper for this test on a track that doesn't ideally
play to his strength. Has fair soft ground form and stayed on well
when 6th behind Best Prospect over 10F at Newbury in which he didn't
have a clear run and is capable of going well in this today. Fully
exposed and potentially up against it in terms of unexposed
handicappers he will play a minor role at best having failed to win
at his favoured trip, track and conditions last time.
19 - Greek Well - Scraped
home last time in a muddling affair on favoured ground in a muddling
affair and has a extra 4lbs in the handicap to overcome here as well
as the conditions under foot that saw him struggle when well beaten
at Catterick last season. Potentially backwards last season Sir
Michael Stoute is in flying form at present and this has been the
target for this season. The 9F trip should suit having shown speed
in all his races this term and being by Saddlers wells he should
handle these conditions under a claimer who has already shown big
race experience when steering Dark Missile to Victory in the
Wokingham at Royal Ascot and the feather weight for the conditions
should suit. Improvement is on the cards but if he shows enough to
land this is the question as he is a long way short of his Derby
quotes from last season.
20 - Hassad - has been found
out of late in mile handicaps and over 10F in the Zetland Gold cup
in which he was denied a run on at least two occasions. The strong
pace and wide galloping straight should see him improve on that form
and is potentially on the upgrade for Richard Hills and Willie
Haggas. The trip should suit being by Danehill and his style should
suit. Needs to prove that this ground will suit but is of interest
with a low weight and the number one jockey for owner booked for
this ride today.
Tissue Prices - Hitchcock 5/1, Balliebrough 11/2, Smart
Instinct, Hassaad 7/1, Greek Well, Collateral Damage 8/1 , Fortunate
Isle, Pevensey 10/1, Kyoto Summit 12/1, Flipando 14/1, Avoiraz,
Flying Clarets, Charlie Tokyo 16/1, Speedy Sam 20/1, Resonate, Folio
25/1, Luberon 33/1, Boo 50/1.
Verdict – Richard
Fahey should be respected in this handicap, with a flock of runners
bidding to win this today. Smart Instinct looks set to run a big
race and 11/1 looks a fair price, while his other runners Flying
Clarets at 18/1 is also a decent price. Hitchcock is interesting
runner and makes more appeal then Greek Wells at the prices, while
Balliebrough at 25/1 is massive value. Collateral Damage at 16/1
could be hold a chance on the day, while Hassad shouldn't be totally
dismissed with a race to suit.
Selection –
Smart Instinct 1pt @ 11-1 (11's BF), Hassad 1pt @
16-1 (21's BF), Balliebrough 1pt @ 25-1 (31'sBF)
Well Chief
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