|
Preview
06 July 2007
2.05 The British Land Handicap
class 3 (3yo+ 0-95) 5F Soft
Low numbers are favoured over five furlongs in these conditions
at Sandown. They normally come up the middle over this ever so
slightly stiff galloping 5F. Stamina, as well as speed will be
needed. The conditions will find out any that do not see out the
trip well.
1 - Out After Dark -
Descending in the handicap, after a run of no wins in the last 12
races and can be regarded as ever so slightly regressive after 30
runs, but has shown in a class 2 event recently that he still
retains some ability to go well in this company. Has ran over 6F
recently while regressing and its been 7 runs since running over
this minimum trip, where he finished 7th to the useful soft ground
performer Reverence in the temple stakes last season. That
performance over 5F in a decent group race would have him back
winning of this current mark and he hasn't got anywhere near that
this season. A strong pace today in this lower graded race should
suit but he needs to prove that he is as good as he was 12 months
ago to give away the weight today.
My Tissue price - 7/1
2 - Come Out Fighting - Was
behind a wall of runners when failing to pick up at Newbury over 6F
last time and was found to have bleed from the nose this day and the
form can be over looked. The form at Ascot is good enough to give
him claims in this field today, as that was a solid performance on
ground as soft as it is likely to be here. The drop back in trip is
a unknown on ground this soft but on the strongly ran race at Ascot
it may happen all a bit to quick as he hung right under pressure
when trying to pick up over 6F and this shorter doesn't look the
most ideal.
My Tissue price - 9/1
3 - Texas Gold - Often steers
clear of ground as soft as this and would be no surprise to see the
horse become a non-runner prior to post time here. Well handicapped
on turf in comparison to his all weather mark where he is at his
best around the tight turning quick track of Lingfeld over 5F and
is yet to have his ideal rattling ground so far this season to run
on, even though better would have been thought of on his two turf
performances so far this season, where he was well beaten over his
favoured 5F in a good overall time for the conditions. Ran well back in September, when 5th at Epsom, but was never really a
feature in that race on rain soft ground. He stayed on that day at
the finish, as those racing up with the pace dominated. Needs to return to his best, and that should come when given on top
of the ground conditions.
My Tissue price - 20/1
4 - Cape Royal - A winner this
season, when holding on, all out from Kay Two at Epsom, under today's
claimer in a similar handicap to this on fast ground. With his
consistence, never is far from out of the handicappers grip where he
possibly finds himself back in today, based on the last two
efforts, including the Epsom Dash at a course he goes well at.
Finished 16/18 that day in an ultra competitive heat and had the run
of the race up front, out of trouble and finished the worse of the
leading bunch. A good field for clues for future sprints he doesn't
look a immediate winner from that race even though this lesser race
with the possibility of less pace up front in a small field looking
to suit his style and a better show with out winning is expected
today.
My Tissue price - 16/1
5 - Lady Livus - Bolted up on
first run this season, when taking up the running at the furlong post
and running out a impressive winner with a little tucked up her
sleeve on that all weather run. This is her first return to Handicap
Company since after finding fillies listed races to tough for her
and she looks to be just below top class on turf. This results as a
much easier task for her today but there has to be grave concerns on
her ability to handle ground as soft as this as both her runs on
soft have had her well held including a 3yo handicap at Newmarket
last season where she finished a disappointing last in a decent
looking handicap. The time for the track and conditions wasn't to
bad but they were not breaking any records and she failed to last
the trip out that day as her action became bogged down in the mud.
On breeding she should do better and this shorter trip may help her
to last home with her stamina coming into play but she won't want
things happening to quick in front to hold her best chance.
My Tissue price - 20/1
6 - Golden Dixie - Made
amends last time at Salisbury after previously finding quite a bit
of trouble in running when last seen there and looks back in form so
far this season after a long losing run through out the summer last
year. The handicapper has still left him in with a slight chance on
form despite the rise back up the weights to his tried and failed
marks in the high eighties. The form of that last race has been
franked well by the runner up picking up a handicap next time out
when getting up in the dying strides. He had to work to pick up the
race last time and had Zowington and the unlucky Cashel mead beaten
in behind. The pace of the race wasn't overly strong but fair enough
for the size of the fields and those up with the pace were tackled
and passed quite easy. The change in conditions today aren't certain
to suit him today having previously flopped on ground with soft in
the going description.
My Tissue price - 12/1
7 - Talbot Avenue - Been a
long time since he managed to get his head in front (45 in total)
and his trainer has failed to land a winner in the past 100 odd days
in the mean time also so you have to be concerned by those stats if
thinking of going in again on this horse. Hasn't seen much racing
this season and has never won fresh after a 40+ gap from last run so
already has a bit to prove today. Exposed he was last seen at
Goodwood where he was getting a massive 11lbs in weight from Texas
Gold and still managed to finish behind that rival. Today he finds
himself worse of at the weights as the handicapper helps his rival
out. Stayed on well to finish a close 2nd to Merlin Dancer who went
well for a long way up front n the Epsom Dash (best of those who
forced the pace) and stuck on well to get with in 3/4L of a very
decent bend runner who is hard to beat if given the run of the race.
The pace this day was very solid and he still showed the turn of
foot of old to run down the winner on first start for a new yard
(passed beaten horses). Kept to better ground he has likely
regressed since last tried on this surface back in May 2005 at York
where he stuck on well without looking like winning as those up with
the pace dominated. A good show is on the books but it has to be
taken on trust and maybe a return to a quicker surface could have
him winning again.
My Tissue price - 8/1
8 - Phantom Whisper - Quickly
turned out for the first time in his career after running a find
race in defeat over 6F at Windsor on Saturday under similar
conditions to these. It was a fair effort for the conditions on the
clock. The winner could potentially be group class and he was
closing on him at the finish in receipt of weight and it was a good
effort under a 4lb rise for his close 2nd at this track the time
before. The low draw could well help as will the drop to this 5F and
the Sandown run when just failing was a pretty decent handicap as
the winner set a good clip where Phantom Whisper was very unlucky
when closing down quickly from out of the chasing pack. Zowington
was always close up and could only muster the one pace and
potentially the conditions may just favour his opponent today.
My Tissue price - 5/1
9 - Little Edward - Loves
this track and was very progressive at a lower level then this last
season. Progressed over the winter when reverting to the Polly track
and now is potentially handicapped up to his best on both fronts.
Well beaten when tackling soft ground at Goodwood behind Sierra
Vista two years back and wasn't seen after that race where he
appeared to have went wrong. Great training performances to bring
him back to winning ways. The top of the ground looks most ideal for
him and is another who I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a
non-runner in this company today.
My Tissue price - 33/1
10 - Cashel Mead - Can put a
line through the form behind Golden Dixie and Zowington as she was
badly hampered when trying to make her effort and that seems to have
left a mark on the horse, as she was never travelling at any point
last time at Chester and could be in need of a turn around in
confidence as the soft ground wouldn't have been the reason for the
defeat having shown in the past that she is as good on soft as good
racing ground. The defeat at Thirsk was the last time she put up
good performance 3 runs back but that looks a little short to be
landing this race today as this looks tougher and others have better
claims coming into this race. Back to 1lb below last time successful
after enjoying a good season last year where she progressed no ends
and maybe is just in the grip of the handicapper until they drop her
to an easier level.
My Tissue price - 10/1
11 - Diane's Choice - If you
can look further back then the two runs she has a fair chance on
form of the Chester race today where she stuck to her guns well to
finish with in a couple of lengths after helping to force the pace
and being kept wide. Likely to be let go today over this minimum
trip she could burn her rivals off today as she did to fine effect
over 5F on the all weather. A winner on good to soft ground at
Lingfield where she made all uncontested on the rail where she held
it to good use to burn them all off. The latest flop on soft ground
over 6F she lost vital lengths at the start when rearing and on that
ground for a horse that likes to see plenty of daylight in front of
her she was never going to get back on terms over a trip that
stretches her stamina out. Seems to light Leicester racecourse as
she doesn't run a bad race there, she shouldn't mind this track and
could potentially improve for sprint distances (didn't stay last
time).
My Tissue price - 4/1
12 - Zowington - Has claims
getting weight from all his rivals today and has some interesting
form lines with a few of these, including when sticking on at the one
pace behind Phantom Whisper here last time, a rival who has since ran
very well against some improving sprinters. The blinkers are on
today and George Baker has the task of getting him settled into a
rhythm just off the pace, these conditions should well suit him
having been so impressive when running well at york last season. The
pace of the race should suit and has been showing recently that a
win is not far off with the handicapper giving him a chance off his current mark and showed pace at Newbury before not seeing the trip
out. High draw isn't certain to be an advantage but is handicapped to
go close.
My Tissue Price - 9/2
Tissue prices - Diane's Choice 4/1, Zowington 9/2, Phantom
Whisper 5/1, Out after Dark 7/1, Talbot Avenue 8/1, Come out
Fighting 9/1, Cashel Mead 10/1, Golden Dixie 12/1, Cape Royal 16/1,
Lady Livus 20/1, Texas Gold 25/1, Little Edward 33/1
Verdict – An
open Handicap and a lot could depend on the blinkers working the
trick for Zowington here. The more solid bet looks to be Diane's
Choice, on this drop back to 5F for a stable that aren't renowned
for their Sandown handicap winners. Out After Dark, under Frankie
Dettori, is of interest if retaining the ability of old. His 2nd at
Newbury, behind the Wokingham runner up, gives him solid claims,
even though 5F may be a little too quick for him these days, under
top weight. Talbot Avenue may need the ground better then this, to
land a long awaited prize, while Come out Fighting is sure to be
doing his best work late on.
Selection –
Diane's Choice
2pts @ 14-1 (Betfair 18.5)
Well Chief
|