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Preview - 29 June 2007

 

7.15 Northern Rock Gosforth Park (Handicap) class 2 (3yo+ 0-105) soft 5F

1 – Celtic Mill – The form book has plenty of pluses on this horse who has beaten 10 of the 16 opponents he faces today in previous races and comes here of the back of a good run at Musselbrugh when 2nd to Aegean Dancer over 5F. Likes to run well to the front of the pack and when on song can be hard to peg back. Thought to be past his best in terms of winning group races and at 9yo would be the oldest winner in some time to win this race. Best on quick ground the conditions has to be off a concern but the weight on the back isn’t as the last run proved he is capable still of running well in a big race handicap under a welter burden of weight. Cheek pieces potentially a thing of the past.

My Tissue Price - NR

2 – Fonthill Road – a Hard horse to keep sound having had well documented back problems but underlined the trainers talents when landing the Ayr Gold cup in good fashion before going well again on a straight galloping track when beaten just 3L by Amadeus Wolf over 6F. Finished well behind Celtic Mill latest but that is a sharp 5F and this stiffer 5F should be more to his liking even though it is still likely to be on the sharp side. Trainer does well here with his handicappers and is double handed in the field, stable number 1 jockey has taken this ride and potentially has chosen the wrong one as the soft going isn’t likely to be ideal despite handling Autumn good to soft ground to a very good level.

My Tissue Price - NR

3 – Bond City – Still to be seen if new trainer can get anymore out of this horse as there isn’t many who have the ability to improve sprinters from Brian Smart yard and with him still 4lbs higher then when last winning he is given another tough sprint handicap to overcome this mark. Set out to win a big handicap this season he is 0-13 in 16+ runner handicaps but does handle big fields but has one of those traits of finding one more progressive then which he is. Doesn’t want it too soft as he generally is a much better sprinter under better conditions even though he does handle ground with some give in. Better weighted with Caribbean Corral on Epsom Dash form and gave another bold account at Musselbrugh under today’s claimer who is helping him at the weights. Uncertain on the draw suiting him with more likely pace on the low numbers he may have to make it himself.

My Tissue Price – 9/1

4 – Meccas Mate – Handicapped to go well based on the narrow win over Bond City last year (even though claimer tips it the other way) on good to soft ground at Newmarket and no problems with getting her toe in. David Barker has two runners in this field today (saddles top weight) and will be hoping that the 55-day break will have done the trick with this horse that finished tailed off over 6F at Newmarket on quick ground. That performance was lame as the horse has previously shown to liking the quicker ground and it wasn’t a case of the race coming too soon after the Newbury run. Suited to today’s conditions she needs to find her form to land this today and possibly better in small fields. Comes to life this time of the year.

My Tissue price – 12/1

5 – River Falcon – Hard to judge horse as his form is very in and out and based on the 2nd to Sierra Vista in a small field (Bunchill Dona well beaten) he has to have some sort of claims even though that race could be misleading form. Needs to be produced at the right time it is a surprise to see just how good his record is in small fields, with the impression that a end to end gallop over 5F would be more ideal. Jim Goldie is always respected around the northern tracks and saddles two in this race. Always struggling with the handicapper and hard to win with he has a previous place effort over 6F here and has ground and most probably 5F here being ideal with a strong pace. Another who is very exposed but his trainer was the last to win this with a 7yo. Never managed to pick up from rear latest, stiffer track should help him and place prospects could be obtained.

My Tissue Price – 10/1

6 – Tarabet – Slowly his mark is coming down in the handicap after showing so much early season promise as a 3yo (4L to King stand 2nd Dandy Man) and it seems that he has never really progressed from there and future lies in handicaps. Well beaten when sent off a 100-1 shot over 6F at York (Fonthill Road finished in front) and may have found that a shade to far even though York is quite a easy 6F. This 5F should help him to sustain his effort and is better weighted with Fonthill Road so there may be reason to see him get closer to that rival today. This track should suit him but the conditions under foot have to be of a slight negative here and the weights will start to favour him in a few more runs time.

My tissue price - NR

7 – Orientor – The 2nd of Jim Goldie’s runners and the 2nd 9yo in the field. Likely to have seen better days his handicap mark is given a boost by the claimer keeping the ride after making some late headway last time at Musselbrugh in the big race handicap there. Massive swing in the weights with Fonthill road based on the Gold cup form and may be angling towards another tilt at that as he wasn’t disgraced last year (meet trouble in running). Handles give in the ground and a winner over a stiff 5F at Sandown back in 2004 (last win). Has had some tough asks in between then and now but will need to show a bit more then he has so far this season to be a 9yo winner of this race.

My Tissue price – 12/1

8 – Buchaill Dona – Forget the run where he was beaten last of six behind Orientor and River Falcon who both meets him on better terms in this handicap but that race wasn’t ran to suit as he saw plenty of daylight and potentially failed to act on the quick ground and can expect nothing then a better display today. Unexposed but talented in big fields with both his quickest and in terms of form best efforts coming over 5 & 6F at the galloping track of York (including 6f this season). The give in the ground over 5F on a straight galloping track such as this should be ideal and there wont be any excuses today other then just not good enough if he was to fail to give his true running. Dandy Nicholls has won this race twice in the last 10 years and this is first of four runners.

My Tissue price - NR

9 – Tournedos – has had much in favour in a few of his races and is yet to show too much for his new yard but is quickly dropping down the weights to a attractive mark and is more then capable of landing a race like this for Dandy Nicholls. Partnered with Francis Norton Today and likely to make a bold bid from the front from his low draw. Was staying on last time at Musselbrugh in which he is dropped another 2lbs in the weight and that was his best effort by far, Stiffer track today and a more prominent role in the race he can latch on to the pace here but has been deserted by Aiden Nicholls for today’s race. Looks a type for a small field based on form and has ground to make up on a few of these on recent runs. Certain winner when raced on good to firm ground.

My Tissue Price – 14/1

10 – Caribbean Corral – Decent 5F sprinter who finished well to just fail in the Epsom Dash last time and on that run has the beating of a few of these. Already a winner of this race as well as the Dash he is often targeted at these races by John Quinn and won the dash before landing this prize on his next run, which suggest he is one for a big field when in flying form which he seems to be at this stage and better then ever before. Has handled soft ground before when landing this prize as a 5yo. Finds himself 7lbs high in the handicap then when winning at Chester and the last run shows that he is still on good terms with himself and if getting the splits can land this prize again for a yard that are always respected in handicaps.

My Tissue Price – 4/1

11 – Fire up the Band – Non-Runner

12 – Turn on The Style – Was beaten by Carribbean Corral at Chester over 5F after a winter of progression that saw him return to the turf 20lbs higher then his last winning mark. Plenty of pace for a sharp track he was beaten on merit that day by John Quinn’s runner and finds himself fairly weighted with that rival today. A winner on soft ground when beating Zomerlust over 6F at Haydock so handles give in the ground but its to be seen if he can reproduce the sort of form that he showed round the tight turns of Lingfield at this level. Andrew Elliot is enjoying a rich vein of winners at present and will ride this horse with maximum amount of confidence and has to come into the equation.

My Tissue Price – 12/1

13 – Inter Vision – a Handicapper who pops up at big prices and makes his seasonal reappearance in a tough looking ask for him on the book. A winner in big fields he is usually produced with a strong run at the business end and is renowned for enjoying these sorts of conditions. A course winner over 6F at a lower class rating he will need to be at his best today to land this race and his best figure performances have come when he has carried no more then 8st 6lbs so the handicapper looks to have his measure at this level and with the recent returns not yielding to much encouragements in years gone by he could well need this today.

My Tissue Price – 22/1

14 – Green Park – All his best form has come in the spring. His record reading no wins, no places from 10 efforts in months June to August and he will be looking to put those stats firmly in the bin today. British Summer time has turned into springtime looking at the amount of rain landing at this moment in time so he has no excuses based on the ground with give suiting. With the speed for 5F, and a weight under 9 stone, he has all the trends in favour for his age group. Looking at the original jockey bookings, this looks the 2nd string but he has quite a bit in favour here and can fair better then in this race last year, when given a tough ask for a 3yo.

My Tissue price – 6/1

15 – Continent – Now 10yo and the oldest horse in the field but still seems to run well at this level for Dandy Nicholls. Turned out quickly which he doesn’t mind as he has gone well running twice in a week before, and has given a good indication in the past that he does handle the track. More progressive rivals should see to him not winning again over 5F here and even though he has proved to act with cut in the ground, he is yet to show up to well on really soft ground. 5lbs high in handicap mark which should be enough to stop him winning this.

My Tissue Price – 20/1

16 – Prince Namid – Has a lot in his favour after returning to form on Epsom oaks day, where he finished a good 2nd to Songs of passion. Likes to get his toe in and has a good long striding action for this ground where  he shows plenty of speed, potentially his best trip is 6F, but he shows plenty over 5F. A galloping stiff minimum trip is ideal for him, so there is limited question marks on the course. Trainer has a poor (0-21) record in all age handicaps at this track, but with only being 3lbs higher then last handicap win, good form coming into the race and a racing weight where his eye catching performances have come from. He should go very well in this race. Jockey booking isn’t necessarily a big negative despite the 0-7 reading.

My Tissue Price – 6/1

17 – Overstayed – Another potential improver in the field and one that will benefit for the sub 9 stone for a 4yo on the trends of this race. Forget the run at Epsom last time where the horse was unbalanced in the rear and never going and may have found it all happening a little to quick. Heavy ground winner on racing debut he has been kept well away from ground with cut in since his 2yo day and may improve for returning to a easier surface being by a good sire on ground like this. On Chester running he needs to improve to have claims at this level and a straight galloping 5F will help him to do this. Maybe just lacks the natural class of some of these he should show up better then he has recently.

My Tissue Price – 25/1

Tissue – Caribbean Coral 4/1, Prince Namid, Green Park 6/1, Bond City 9/1, River Falcon 10/1, Mecca’s Mate, Orientor, Turn on the Style 12/1, Tournedos 14/1, Continent 20/1, Inter Vision 22/1, Overstayed 25/1.  

Verdict – Depleted field with 5 non runners, including the two top weights with lower weighted horses involved in the race and they may be out to keep the weight off their other horses in the field. Caribbean Coral, a former winner of this race, has to be involved in the finish, as he is on top of his game at present. It is no surprise to see him up as favourite in this race now, with the non runners. The bookmakers have really gone to town on this race having 8 of the 12 runners left at single figure odds. Two at the bottom of the handicap I like are Green park and Prince Namid, who both are value at 8-1, even though double figure odds were what I was half expecting. Given their profile’s they still appeal at the odds.

SelectionPrince Namid 1pt @ 8-1 (BF 9.8) & Green Park 1pt @ 8-1 (BF 9.8).

Well Chief