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Preview
23 June 2007
5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
(Heritage Handicap) Class 2 (3yo+
0-105) 12F Good
1 - Luberon - Best when given
a chance to dictate the pace up front and isn't certain to get it
all his own way up front in this big field today. Best on rattling
ground it isn't likely to be firm ground today and may just be a
little slower then ideal. Does stay this trip well but the top
weight and 6lbs higher then last winning when he had the run of the
race and will be at his best when given a small field in which he is
able to dictate in.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
2 - Scriptwriter - Holds his
own at this level and very lightly raced for a 5yo so the likely
hood of him bouncing in this race today is very unlikely. The big
strong field with a solid pace should suit but he has recorded his
better efforts over 10F and his best efforts over 12F were in
smaller fields in which the pace wasn't championship pace so stamina
should be fully tested today as saddlers wells colts don't like to
much further in general. Ground on the easy side of good seems to
suit but good ground on the fast side shouldn't rate as a problem.
Listed class winner you would imagine that the 4lbs higher mark in
the handicap shouldn't be a problem to overcome on this lower grade
of race. Stable does well with their horses here even though their
all age handicap stats are a negative.
My tissue Price - 5/1
3 - Don't Dilli Dali -
Exposed talented filly that was at her best at the start of last
season when landing when landing the Masaka Stakes. Has had one
attempt over this distance when finishing 6th of 10 back in March in
Dubai, a big field might have her stamina stretched as this will be
a hard staying race today and more so then that race at Nad al Sheba
when she never really quickened to get involved and stayed on at the
one pace. She is down a couple of grades from her run in a group 3
last times in which she was well beat. Handles a big field in which
she ran well as a 2yo so that shouldn't be a problem. A mark of 100
might be a little to high for her here today.
My tissue price - Non runner
4 - Bandama - Was outstayed
last time at Kempton by a more progressive rival but stayed on in
game fashion to finish 2nd that day and comes here in form. A solid
3rd at this meeting last year against same age group and handles a
big field with strong pace and should stay this trip well. Course
form proved that this track suits and if it were genuine quick
ground he would go close again in this race. A runner that is often
towards the front he is likely to tuck in behind the pace this time
but at this moment just looks a shade high in the handicap on this
step back up to class 2 opponents.
My Tissue Price - 8/1
5 - Rayhani - non runner
6 - Nakheel - Has had
problems but is a very classy horse if producing the same level of
form as when a close 2nd to Wannabe Posh at Head quarters. Best in
small fields but did run a good race at York in a large field when
4th to High treason which he ran well under a high weight. This is a
much better race and if getting back to his listed class win, which
was prior to his problems, he would take all the beating. Kept by
the owner so there is reason to fathom that the horse retains a good
level of ability still at home. The Epsom race he missed the break
and when getting back into contention lost his balance so there is a
reason that the track on a quirky horse didn't suit and that can be
looked over as a basis of form. Trainer does well in all age
handicaps and Richard Hills is riding well at this moment in time
(confidence jockey). Should get the run of the race and stays well
if produced at the right time.
My Tissue price - 10/1
7 - Solent - A horse I have a
lot of time for after landing a big bet for myself last summer at
Newbury and is horse that travels kindly in his races. Effective on
all type of ground and has had big field experience when running in
big fields at Haydock and York over further and 12F on good ground
today should see him go well. A strong pace suits and should not be
placed to far of the front to strike under Richard Hughes today. One
of the most exposed runners in the field he bids to overcome a high
handicap mark today and will be much better suited to today's race
then the small field in which he had to make his own running in last
time at Salisbury and a much better show expected today.
My Tissue Price - 14/1
8 - Hitchcock - The Irish
raider is looking to land a prize for his trainer in a handicap
after the stable has had so much success this season in non handicap
races this week. The horse he lost to last time over a trip that was
to sharp hasn't held up the form and this step back up in trip will
need to see improvement from this fairly unexposed type. Strong pace
should see him sticking on gamely like his sire Giant Causeway done
so many times and the ground should be ideal. 10lbs higher then his
handicap win over Wordly wise that flopped yesterday and the English
handicapper has not left much to chance here.
My Tissue Price - 10/1
9 - Kings Head - Non runner
10 - Weightless - On the
downgrade from recent seasons and another who is likely to battle it
out at the front end. James Doyle is back for this horse but minus
his 3lbs claim to make it a tougher ask. No excuses when weakening
after never having enough pace to lead over 10F last time at kempton
and have trouble reversing the form today. Beaten off the front with
Lubron over 11F he is likely to struggle to get to the front again
and is likely to help set it up for a closer. This further trip
would have to improve him, which isn't out of the question but he is
quite exposed and is unlikely to have a race to suit to be landing
this prize today.
My Tissue Price - 50/1
11 - Futun - Stayed on behind
Emirates Skyline at York a piece of form that has worked out well
despite the laboured effort by the winner who saw to much daylight
yesterday when produced around the bend and couldn't muster enough
effort to get to the front but on the whole that form has been well
franked and is likely to stand up again in future. Jamie Spencer
booking is a eye catcher for a horse that should have the pace to be
aimed off from his hold up position and would have needed the run
when well beaten at Kempton by Luberon despite his record fresh.
Dropping in the handicap and over ideal trip today he has some
ground to make up on a few of today's rival but is only 3lbs higher
then when beating Prowess at Haydock in which he didn't have a clear
run and could be rated as better then that bare form. Jamie should
get him settled better then Nicky managed at Newmarket and this
ground is ideal so he has a good chance today at reversing form with
Nakheel & Bandama.
My Tissue Price - 8/1
12 - Strategic Prince - Non-Runner
13 - Acropolis - Ran well in
the Arc many moons ago for Ballydoyle and since then has been over
hurdles in which he hated the very soft winter ground and lost his
way after clipping a couple of hurdles and then never really got to
grips with that game. Trained by Ian Semple it was no surprise to
see him go well behind Scriptwriter at Hamilton a place where the
trainer has such a strong record with his runners and that was most
probably a target for him so you have to feel he is likely to be
held by Scriptwriter a horse who was heavily odds on for that race
and took a while to put it to bed. Bigger field today isn't what I
would imagine this horse ideally wants despite the stronger pace
maybe being ideal as he is a bit of a head case and getting him to
settle in amongst horses will be a tough task for Tom Eaves then
that day up at Hamilton but on the Arc fourth he shouldn't be found
wanting at the business end and may stay on well enough to snatch a
pace, but the early part of the race is the important for this
horse.
My Tissue Price - 16/1
14 - Ogee - Stuck on well
after losing his chance at Kempton and could rate as one to get
compensation here today if have the luck in running. Sir Michael
Stoute is yet to land handicap at this years meeting but has gone
very close so far and his runners are in solid form as he looks to
get much needed prize money in his bid to be champion trainer for
another year. Under a claimer that day he doesn't have the 7lbs in
his favour today of that weight pull but has a jockey who is
experienced in top flight races such as this. Twice a 12F winner a
end to end gallop won twice on the easier track at Royal Windsor and
this strong galloping 12 that is a stiffer course may stretch his
stamina and was well eased when beaten at Newmarket in which he just
beat home Funtun who ruined his chance by not settling. Has form
lines to tie in with a few of these and stepped back to 10F any ease
in the ground wont be a problem and if meeting no trouble should be
involved in the finish here today.
My Tissue Price - 5/1
15 - Mikao - 12F Specialist
at Newmarket and a very exposed 6yo now for Mark Tompkins but always
seems to run well in big race handicaps and is often in the firing
line which isn't certain to suit today with a lot of pace on in this
race. Trip & Ground suits so no problems there and the main
concern has to be the failure to actually win a class 2 handicap in
8 tries and coming into this race 7lbs high in the handicap and
quite a competitive handicap he is unlikely to land his first today
for a handicapping yard who only has 1-32 winners in these types of
races here and based on his run last time at Newmarket maybe further
will suit him at this stage of career as Junniper Girl &
Finalmente stayers finished in behind.
My Tissue Price - 33/1
16 - Pevensey - One of the
first beaten at York as he struggled to go a yard and was well held
even before making some headway late in the straight. It was a tardy
start that day and may rate better then that run suggest as he is
better over 12F which he tackles today and may be closely matched
with Futun who finished around 6L in front this day. Good racing
ground with some cut is ideal and a stiff 12F such as this where he
beat Group Captain and also ran Peppertree Lane close (Purple Moon
stayed on well yesterday) puts him in with a chance carrying around
the same weights as those days. Likes big fields and finds quite a
bit for pressure the strong pace should suit and John Quinn is
brilliant at placing his horses in handicaps and this has been what
he is laid out for in my view.
My Tissue Price - 10/1
17 - Kings Quay - Another for
John Quinn at the right end of the handicap and one that came back
to life over hurdles at Aintree before not mustering enough speed to
challenge over 10F at the speedy track of Epsom. Today's trip suits
and good ground should be ok for him so he has a chance on the
figures while a strong pace suits as he comes into his time of year.
Well beaten in the Wolferton handicap but this extra trip today
should suit and Hugh Bowman is booked for the ride on what you would
imagine is the 2nd string. Interesting.
My tissue Price - 20/1
18 - Cedar Mountain - kept on
well at Kempton last time without really mustering enough turn of
foot to look like winning and will come on for that run over a
longer trip. Being by Gallieo he should improve for this extra trip
and there is more to come so you have to consider him as a potential
chance for this as he could make up into a better class of
handicapper for the step up in trip today. Ground should be ideal
and one who if not showing immaturity for the occasion should be
involved in the finish.
My Tissue Price - 7/1
19 - Eva Soneva So fast -
Very Consistent horse in and around this level and just lacks that
extra bit of class to beat his rivals at this level. The trip last
time was to far when he was sent off at 33-1 for a staying event
over 2F further that is working out well. The slightly less fast
ground should see him to better effect and Jimmy Quinn gets on well
with the horse but at this level may just struggle against some
better progressive rivals and Cedar Mountain on only 1lb more you
would imagine would prevail as the better of the two at the foot of
the weights.
My Tissue Price - 33/1
Tissue Prices - Scriptwriter, Ogee 5/1, Cedar Mountain
7/1, Futun, Bandama 8/1, Pevenesey, Hitchcock, Nakaheel 10/1, Solent
14/1, Acropolis 16/1, Kings Quay, Luberon 20/1, Mikao, Eva Soneva So
fast 33/1, Weightless 50/1
Verdict – A
fair handicap and one with many chances. Godolphin & Stoute have
the leading pair and are short in a open handicap in a race the
bookmakers don't want to give much value away in. Nakheel at 14-1
rates as a fair chance, while Cedar
Mountain at 8-1 general has a good chance of landing this
prize while on the upgrade. Bandama
out of that race at Kempton is overpriced at 20-1 while Solent
at 20+ has claims each-way.
Selection –
Bandama 1pt @ 16-1 (BF 30),
Cedar Mountain 1pt @ 8-1
(BF 11)
Futun 1pt @ 9/1 (11.5 BF)
Well Chief
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