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Preview
22 June 2007
4.20 Wolfton Handicap - Listed
Race (class 1)
(4yo+ 0-110) 10F Good g/s
1 - Imperial Star - Ran a
cracker in a competitive listed race at Goodwood won by Illustrious
Blue and had 3 of today's rivals in that race of level weights. The
task was made harder for Imperial Star who had to carry a Listed
race penalty that may have just stopped him from beating the first
two home as lbs to length the 3lbs would have had him finishing just
in front. Of those rivals he meets here today he is 1lb worse off
with Charlie Cool and 2lbs worse off with Championship Point.
Unexposed he could prove to be a nice horse in time and may make up
into a group horse if you believe his Sefton handicap flop (13/2
against Manduro) was coming to soon in his career. Top weight in a
tough looking handicap may slow him up but his trainer has a good
record in all age handicaps and is in form. The ground may become
slightly against him today, as genuine quick ground looks most ideal
on what we have seen and his breeding.
My Tissue Price - 12/1
2 - Road to Love - Was lining
up as a very solid looking bet in this handicap before the overnight
rain came along and is very tightly tied in on form with Imperial
star based on last running at Goodwood. Ideally suited to a
right-handed course this track plays well to his strengths and last
years all the way success in the Brunswick handicap is most probably
the best piece of Ascot form of all the runners in this race. Found
life harder since being tried in-group and Listed company, but
returned to form latest at Goodwood when finding more to finish 2nd
at Goodwood. If the ground had stayed good to firm he would have
been very hard to beat today under the champion jockey Ryan Moore.
More exposed then few rivals in this race and most probably open to
less improvement he was unsuited to the track when beaten by Classic
Punch at Epsom last season in which many similar keen front running
sorts are and was hampered as well which gives that piece of form
something to swerve on. The ground hasn't gone totally against him
but it will make life harder. Ideally drawn in the high numbers to
bag the rail he should see off Prince of Light at the front of
affairs.
My Tissue Price - 6/1
3 - Charlie Cool - Has
franked the listed race at Goodwood by winning under today's jockey
in fine style when staying on under pressure to beat Shmookh and
hinterland readily and bounce back to form. Has some ground to make
up on Road to Love and Imperial Star on Goodwood form but not
totally out of the question as proves to better horse around this
time of year and was not given a clear run when meeting those
rivals. 1lb better off with Imperial Star on that run he could well
close up the gap with those two today and with good speed figures,
ground and ideal trip he has to be respected from a yard that is
simply flying into form. The headgear helped to light him up once he
was produced and it may have just brought him back to form so 6L at
Goodwood may be overcome if getting the run of the race. There are
little negatives apart from the beating he took that day and given
how well the John Smith Stakes Handicap has worked out from last
season he could well confirm the form with Classic Punch despite the
swing in weight, but Dansili Dancer makes a more interesting rival
on that running.
My Tissue Price - 8/1
4 - Championship Point - Mick
Channon yard is having a hit and miss time of it as the trainer
strings a load of 2nd s together on his recent form figures.
Championship Point has to improve on his latest effort at Goodwdood
and may just fall short at this level now after previously winning
in listed company as a 2yo at Royal York winning the Chesham stakes
that year. On form he is held and that is a major disadvantage as
their wasn't any really reason for the defeat and he has only 2lb
give in helping him to be seen better this time which doesn't look
enough with no really major advantages drawn from today's conditions
and race being run to suit at a stiffer track.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
5 - Heaven Sent - On the
upgrade based on her eye-catching success at Ascot 2 runs ago in
which she cleared away in good style over a mile. That race was very
much a easier assignment and not much has come out to run well since
so the form could be slightly cautious and of others with Ascot form
it rates slightly inferior to a few of them. Stepping up in trip for
the first time the trainer knows what he has and she rates as
interesting on that alone. She is by Pivotal whose offspring's
usually are best around the mile mark she may find a few of these
slightly to strong for her at this stage over 10F but any ease in
the ground shouldn't hinder her chances.
My Tissue Price - 9/1
6 - Stotsfold - Trainer has
blamed the ground for his defeat at Chester in which rain made it
slightly softer then ideal so the fact their has been rain around
for today rates his chances down here as well. Battling to overcome
13lbs higher in the handicap he is re-partnered with Ted Durcan who
missed out on this horse progression and it appears Walter wants a
more experienced horseman for the big races such as this in which
his amount needs assistance to be winning. Not happy hunting ground
for the stable so far and double handed in this race; Stortsfold
looks more the 2nd string in this class of race today. Beaten by
several of these so far in his career on softer surfaces and also
Classic Punch on favoured ground he has quite a bit to find to be
reversing any form lines today of this current mark.
My Tissue Price - 33/1
7 - Emirates Skyline -
Returned to winning ways last time at York and very much needs a big
field with plenty of cover and a strong pace. The way he angled out
at York that day was the mark of a horse that is capable of
competing at a very much better level then a handicapper. With the
rain making the surface more to his liking, he has to take all the
beating now. The form of the race has been well franked by Flipando
in the Zetland Gold Cup and the 2nd is thought to be on the look out
for Pattern class races, so that effort of top weight was very
taking. The Stable are in form, although they are best in group
races, rather then listed handicaps. But if they are to win a
handicap, then it would be this today. No obvious meetings with any
of the others in the field, the 6lbs penalty on this ground today
doesn't look to hold him up and listed races of level look to be
future for this horse. Big chance.
My Tissue Price - 11/4 FAV
8 - Tucker - ran a very good
race last time behind unshakable at Epsom a race in which the 2nd
was very well supported for the Hunt Cup the other day just to run
flat and well beaten. Was well beaten here on soft ground but the
track isn't likely to be as slow as it was that day here and he has
got some good form on the track based on 2nd to Prince of Thebes.
Worth another go at 10F having been not to disgrace when given a
hard task of beating the Eclipse winner at Goodwood, which as you
would expect wasn't up to it. Handicaps are where his future lies
for Walter Swimburn and usually best caught early in the season.
Hayley Turner gets on well with the horse and he does have the
beating of quite a few of these even though a smaller field would
suit him best and he most probably has more negatives then ticks in
the boxes, but looks the first string for the trainer.
My Tissue Price - 18/1
9 - Prince Of Light - Well
beaten in the royal hunt cup finishing 15th and wasn't knocked about
after being headed so he should be fit and well to go again for a
yard who turns them out well quickly. Based on Zetland form 10F
would be his ideal trip and there could be a case of team tactics up
front with the stable other runner and it may be that Prince of
light is settled into the race and produced later today in order to
get the trip. Best on a sharp track his stamina will need to last
out and that is a negative but he does come to head at around this
time of the year and Joe Fanning is partnered with the horse once
again and does well at Ascot for the trainer. Best in a small field
where he can dictate the tempo he may not need that today and by a
sire in which shorter may be best he is best watched on this 10F
that will take some getting today. Ground ok.
My tissue Price - 20/1
10 - Classic Punch - Lightly
raced and given some tough asks such as the Irish Derby and the
Gordon stakes at Goodwood. Has some good form to tie in with others
in this race in that he has beaten Road to Love (course unsuited)
and smashed Stortsfold in his Windsor Maiden (progressed rival) and
both could be misleading as those rivals both have more weight to
carry suggesting they have either progressed or are regarded better
then that bare form. Big swing in the weights with Charlie Cool on
their running in the John Smith Handicap at Newbury and has got some
claims to reversing that form even though at that time Charlie Cool
was highly progressive and it will be interesting how they fair up
this time around. Beat Ask over 10F a horse who has progressed to
beat Scorpion at Chester. Ground and trip may have some concerns as
he isn't the best breed in the field for these conditions and has
some ground to make up but the size of field and likely pace means
he will at least get the race to suit which is a bonus. Handicapped
to go well in this the absence from course may have him needing it
at this level despite the fresh record and Elsworth being a master
of getting them ready.
My Tissue Price - 18/1
11 -Lake Poet - Looking to
make it 3 straight wins after back to back victories at Epsom to in
which he had Tabdual and Stortsfold two horses who I have earmarked
down as likely outsiders to land this prize and Clive Brittan horse
who is a course specialist should struggle in this high grade of
race. 10F winner he is consistent over a variety of trips even
though being by Gallieo u would imagine this to be the most ideal
for his best performances. Super Seb rides and his record on the
horse is only 2nd to that of Frankie on Emirates Skyline in this
race. The race has much in favour for a bold hatrick bid but he is
likely to be lbs better at Epsom and his trainer is a much bigger
force in handicaps there then here. There is a chance he will
improve again but is quite exposed and what I remember of him I
wouldn't say in stature he will progress to be listed / group class
horse.
My Tissue Price - 16/1
12 - Star of Light - Given a
tough ask on return to the course by taking a listed class race on
in which Mountain was a good winner off and ran with some promise in
that race to give hope that he will be back amongst the handicap
winners soon enough. Gained course experience that day most probably
in prep for this after a sound run last year in this very race in
which he finished a good 5th behind several winners including
Crosspeace & Blue Monday. This race was a good race for Mark
Johnston and you would imagine he would know through his other
horses just how he fairs up against Star of Light who based on this
running has to have a chance after skinning fitter for the run last
time. Good racing ground looks ideal and he handles cut as well as
quick ground, which would be his preference (soft last time maybe to
tough). Enjoys big handicaps such as this and course form from this
last year is most probably only just shaded by prince of Light
performance here last season as well. Much to good for Tabdual on
turf on 3lbs worse terms at Newmarket even though that rival has
improved its hard to see a turn around in form here, Star of Light
may have most questions asked by Dansil Dancer on recent meetings.
That run his last of the season there must have been something wrong
with the horse and is wasn't a surprise to not see him again that
season, was nothing to do with being over ran as he was given enough
time in between races and it may just have been one of those days
that it went wrong. 4lbs weighted better today. Richard Hughes gets
the leg up today and Brian Meehan will be hoping for a change in
fortune.
My Tissue Price - 10/1
13 - Tabadual - Yet to prove
as effective on turf as the Kempton Polytrack in which he progressed
so well on last season. 3lbs worse off with Star of Light on
Newmarket running over 9F he never looked like beating that rival
that day and with the weights against him and so much in favour of
that rival he could once again be found wanting. A tougher ask then
the Epsom handicap in which Lake Poet won and even with better terms
it is one of those races which could be lacking in real class
quality to be winning this type of handicap. Exposed now his speed
level on turf have been less impressive then others and previous run
at this track was less then eye catching being beaten even by Red
lancer a handicapper at a lower level now. The ground is improving
for him but the 99 marks is just a shade too high in the handicap
and he looks likely to struggle to win in this company on turf.
My Tissue price - 18/1
14 - Purple Moon - Last seen
over hurdles for Nicky Richards and now transferred back to the flat
and with Luca Cumani are failing to make a lasting impression over
timber. Formerly With Sir Michael Stoute he was last seen on the
flat over 12F here in a heritage handicap won by useful soft ground
performer Peppertree land of Mark Johnston and I doubt there has
been to much improvement on his 3yo form for a brief hurdling
campaign apart from maybe being able to settle better in his races.
Stoute doesn't hastily get rid of them from the flat if he thinks
they may amount to something and the strong owners haven't got to
where they are now by not playing the game shrewdly. Hard to see him
ever amounting to the next suability over hurdles and wouldn't be a
surprise to see him aimed at the Ebor for Luca in the coming months.
Talented horse that may have learnt a lot but there are a few
questions that need answering and is best watched on return to the
level.
My tissue Price - 13/1
15 - Dansil Dancer - Always
worth taking notice of Cox runners with the master Tactician on
board and the jockey has been seen to good effect on this horse in
the past. A low weight and only a 3lb higher mark to overcome from
the Haydock win over Farmile this horse was in good form around this
time of the year but comes here this time in search of a return to
form after finding a 12lb higher mark hard to overcome in the same
race he won last year at Goodwood. Beaten by a progressive rival he
does look like he may struggle to win again just yet and may need an
easier assignment. The ground doesn't un-suit but others have most
probably got better form on the going and his run in the royal hunt
cup last term has him needing to turn around form with the likes
with Tucker on worse terms. Beat Star of Light at Haydock but that
rivals run mystery as to what went wrong even if that trip may have
him as a doubtful stayer. A strong pace in this race will have him
better off as he does see out further and the stone in weight on
Kempton listed form he may have needed it so on form lines has
claims.
My Tissue Price - 13/1
16 - Wordly Wise - hard to
know what quite to fathom from his Irish form and not a trainer I
know too much about. Raingpost analysis said showed signs of
returning to form at Leopardstown but on ratings I have him with
something to find at the weights today on what he has actually
achieved. Little unsure on ground and Trip today with the rain
having come and slowed it up a little and he is likely to bounce
back to form when back in his native Ireland.
My Tissue Price - 25/1
Tissue Prices - Emirates Skyline 11-4, Road to Love 6-1,
Charlie Cool 8-1, Heaven Sent 9-1, Star of Light 10-1, Imperial Star
12-1, Dansil Dancer, Purple Moon 13-1, Lake Poet 16-1, Tabadual,
Classic Punch, Tucker 18-1, Prince of Light, Championship Point
20-1, Wordly Wise 25-1, Strotsfold 33-1
Verdict – A
quality race as usual and one that often is a good guide to upcoming
handicaps. The winner of this race in the main goes on to better
races and this year, unlike last year is very much different, in
that the likely winner is to be seen in better company and not go
off hurdling like last years winner did. Emirates
Skyline has to take all the beating today now with the
rain getting in the ground. If it was to stay dry Road to Love would
had a outstanding chance at landing this handicap and has to be one
for the notebook for Goodwood for his trainer who has a great record
there. Charlie Cool is likely to get closer this time then at
Goodwood and holds some value at best price 16-1 that can be
obtained if you shop around. Of those at bigger prices Dansil Dancer
and Star of Light looks solid value, while Classic Punch at 33-1
should be noted. Imperial Star, Stortfold, Wordly Wise, heaven Sent
and Lake Poet are not my idea of value selections in this race, the
others are quite close to what I expected. Favs don't have a bad
record in this race and 4yo in general do well while 9 stone or more
hasn't been a problem in the past as classy horses have won this
race…..SO ...
Selection –
Emirates Skyline
3pts win @ 9-2 Lads. (BF 4.5-1) Backing on high street
(btw 5pts is max bet)
Well Chief
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