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Preview -
20 June 2007
4.20 Royal Hunt Cup Heritage
Handicap class 2 (3yo+) 1M GD Gd-FM
Rather then write up every single horse in the race I have
decided with the royal hunt cup that with the many form lines to
base the preview around the previous races that hold the key to this
very tricky handicap. The draw today will be significant as it all
depends which side is likely to have the most pace as to where the
race will be won or lost. Breaking it down into low, middle, high
numbers will give us some idea as to how much pace a certain side
will have advantage on. The known trail blazers in the field are
Prince of Light (2), Zero Tolerance (11), Pride of Nation (27) while
Count Treviso (10) & Plum Pudding (13) also like to be up in the van
so the advantage could be middle to low and with My Paris (3) and
Lundy’s Lane (5) it could be wise to be towards the stands side rail
and the low numbers for this straight mile test with the advantage
coming down the middle of the track.
The Zetland Gold Cup
A messy race in which there were a few unlucky stories in behind
and out of that race we have 4 runners in this field today. Prince
Of Light led the weights this day and put up a much improved
performance for his first attempt over 10F, the drop back to a mile
is likely to suit as he was swallowed up this day when his stamina
started to fail in the final quarter. The winner of this race
Flipando is still handily weighted with Prince of light on this form
but based on what I have seen this season wants that 10F at this
stage of his career. The strong pace will suit those that stay
further and Prince of light will have to improve on his form to make
all today as this tougher then the Zetland Gold cup to make all,
especially as there is no bend to kick off here. With Flipando quite
exposed I feel his winning run will end today at this level and With
Wind Star better off at the weights today and likely to improve for
a return to a stiff track he has potential to reverse the form even
though long trips will see him improve long term. Goodbye Mr Bond
could turn the form on its head dropped back to a mile providing the
ground isn’t blistering quick he is another who is exposed and has a
high mark to overcome but Kevin Darley is as much a bonus to the
horse as Jamie Spencer is to Flipando. Past years a progressive
horse has had the upper hand and 7yo have failed to win in the last
10yrs.
The Spring Cup
One of the first few big handicap miles of the season this race
comes hot of the heels of the Lincoln and is usually a keenly
contested handicap and this years was no different. Won by the very
decent handicapper Pinpoint who nearly followed up in a race that
comes later in this preview under a penalty was all the rage in this
race and was well gambled down to 8-1. The form of this race usually
works out well and from this race Royal Oath, My Paris, Plum
Pudding, Ace of Hearts, European Dream and Zero Tolerance are all
tied into this race. No apparent draw bias in this race with runners
split the width of the track Royal Oath came out on top in this flat
straight galloping mile in which was his first run of the season.
Ace of hearts & Zero Tolerance have eye catching weight swings with
Royal Oath here. European Dream has been winning handicaps already
this season and this looks a bit to much for the horse with the
ground not soft enough to be at his best over a straight mile
despite the course likely to suit and is best overlooked based on
the firm beating when better handicapped in this race. Zero
tolerance is likely to show up well in front but with out ease in
the ground he is renowned for being below his best and even though
well handicapped on old form will weaken when tackled on this lively
surface.
That leaves Royal Oath, Ace of hearts, My paris and Plum Pudding
from this race. Ace of Hearts is well handicapped in reference to
this race, as he would have needed the run as he often comes on
abundance for the run and is at his peak this time of the year. Plum
Pudding had previously had prep for the race and once again just
falls short at that level of opponents, he likes the straight course
at Newmarket with the stiff finish and shouldn’t mind this galloping
8F and is currently 3lbs higher in the handicap then this race and
looks held despite being well drawn up the middle and enjoying big
fields such as this. My Paris another who was fit for the run is
back well handicapped on Thirsk cup form and ran very well in this
race with the ground in favour. Was Hampered nearing the finish and
may have been closer in the finish as it was only 3.5L difference.
He is drawn near the fence making but with the pace he should help
to force and could well confirm the form with Plum pudding and close
up on Royal Oath who came out on top this day. Ace of Hearts drawn
on the other side of the track will be relying on Pride of Nation to
set the pace and Eddie Ahern will be hoping to finally get a win
into the horse.
Thirsk Hunt Cup form
My Paris victorious this day has Minority Report, Flipando and
Wind Star all to beat again and links the form up between the two
previous races well as he is a consistent yardstick to base this
form line around. 6lbs swing around in the weights makes Minority
Report the best handicap horse from this race in terms of lbs to
length of 1L. A bunch finish to this race that has been well franked
with the 1st and 2nd in the Zetland in behind, the main body of the
field was covered by no more then 5L in total. Flipando comes out
worse of the four at the weights but a big bonus is the inclusion of
Jamie Spencer for this horse so there could be some change in
finishing order just from basic collateral form. The ground this day
will give us a guide to how it is likely to be today in terms of how
well they will handle it. All have form on quick ground so there
shouldn’t be any excuses and all should handle this stiff straight
mile with maybe favouring Wind Star on basis of the stronger test of
stamina.
Even though a bunch finish there wasn’t to many hard luck stories
in behind with maybe Minority Report who came wide having the most
trouble while Flipando was switched a few times.
Suffolk Stakes form
Pinpoint who gives us some form line between the two races was
just denied under top weight here today and it was very tight, the
rival that day had already shown that freshness suits him and he is
very lightly raced. A course and distance winner at Ascot Supaseus
could well be up to confirming this form today. Ace of Hearts beaten
3L is 7lbs better of at the weights, prince of Light beaten another
1/2L is also 7lbs better of for that form, While Royal Oath was a
big flop and maybe not staying is just 6lbs better off at the
weights. The drop back in trip will suit Royal Oath the most while
the other 3 are all effective over both trips to identical levels
and it may come down to who is best on the day today. Ace Of Hearts
has a high draw which could be a negative with more pace drawn low
and isn’t a progressive type but could fair best out of this race.
Supaseus could be on the upgrade and regarded better then this
level and is a big danger if the improvement was to take him up to
next level and with a strong pace and John Egan booked he rates as
the progressive type to go well in this sort of race but is another
who is relying on the pace being cut out well by Pride of The
Nation.
Royal Hunt Cup Form
Capable Guest, Ace Of Hearts, pride of Nation and Minority Report
all ran in this race last term in which the first mentioned came out
on top of the four runners in this race. The low numbers had the
edge last year so Minority Report performance has to be questioned
from draw 1 in which he has again here. He was beaten home by Ace of
hearts narrowly while Capable Guest finished just ahead on the other
side of Pride of Nation and was 2nd on that side of the field. Drawn
slap bang in the middle with plenty of pace Capable Guest has slot
in favour and the quick ground isn’t a problem today. Well
handicapped with all bar Ace of hearts on this form he has already
easily beaten Humongous at Sandown on these terms today. Ace of
Hearts worse drawn this time has claims as already pointed out but
with Capable Guest already having the beating of pride of nation on
last years running and the ground slightly against him and Nick
Mackay jumping ship to ride Minority Report who will enjoy the
ground and given another chance in this race it looks like potential
the fav will be overturned again.
Victoria Cup form
Skhilling Spirit, Pentecost and Capable guest come from out this
race in which Capable Guest was last of the trio over 7F that was on
rain soft ground by post time. Bit of a farce as far as the form
goes with the run away winner and Skhilling Spirit the only horse to
have stuck on from out of the pack to close to within 4L of the
winner. This longer trip and better ground are not likely to have
the Barron horse confirming the form even though only 1lb worse of
at the weights. Known as a classy performer when getting his toe in
Skhilling Spirit will not have conditions to suit and that will suit
capable Guest the most given that he would have been most put off by
the give in the ground and the shorter distance and there could be a
big reverse in form here, even though all are well drawn for this
race today.
Britannia stakes form
Handicap won by Sir Gerrard last year had several of today’s
runners in this race that has worked out a shade below the Royal
hunt form from last year. Supesus, Plum Pudding and Military Cross
was involved in this handicap for 3yo and the first two have both
gone on to win handicaps and progressed while Military Cross has
been given some tough assignments by his trainer who has a strong
hand in this race.
Best at the weights today, Military cross may struggle to reverse
the form with Supesus who was worse of the drawn runners in this
race last term, Quick ground again and a year on Supesus could be a
better horse now then when this took place while Plum pudding is
potentially poorly treated and held on this form with the other two.
The draw today may have Military Cross as the best bet of the three
but after a long absence it would be a very good training feat to
get him winning a returning race such as this.
Other runners – quite a few runners hasn’t been touched on and
Montpellier is most probably the most notable one, a progressive
type he has to be involved in this race having shown a improvement
this season since strengthening up. Mcevoy is in for the ride and if
tracking to the centre of the track to latch on to the pace will
have a strong say in this race based on the Kempton win and the
unfortunate defeat last time to a well-handicapped rival at Epsom
and wasn’t helped early on in the race which enabled his rival to
get first run. Vortex is a horse I always have time for but he looks
to have had his chance and place money is best he could hope for
while Trafalgar Square is yet to prove as effective on this surface.
Tissue Prices- Supaseus 8/1, Montpellier 9/1, Minority Report
10/1, Flipando, My Paris 12/1, Prince of Light, Capable Guest 14/1,
Ace of hearts, Humongous 16/1, Royal Oath, Pride of Nation 18/1,
Wind star, Skhilling Spirit, Trafalgar Square 20/1, Pentecost,
Military Cross 25/1, Zero Tolerance, Count Treviso, Yarquas 33/1,
Plum Pudding, European Dream, Crooked Throw, Eden Rock 40/1, Lundy’s
Lane, Vortex, Goodbye Mr Bond 50/1, Woodcote Place, Fantastic View
66/1, Beringoer 100/1
Verdict – A mine
field of a handicap that always seems to go to a progressive horse
having not been won by a horse older then 6yrs old in the past 10yrs
with the brilliant Mine being the winner as a 6yo. Aged 4 or 5 and
carrying less then 9 stone is usually a good sign but it’s not
totally as cut and dry as that as those up the top of the handicap
have chances. Supaues is likely to go well if the draw doesn’t
favour the lower numbers from a pace angle and 10-1 widely available
is a fair price, while 16’s Minority Report can be had also in some
areas. Flipando, My Paris, prince of Light and Capable Guest are all
good solid value in this handicap at 20-1 and above as the likes of
Fantastic view (long absence) and Eden rock are plenty short enough
along with Royal Oath who may well be flattered by the Spring cup
form. Using the draw that could be all important and liking to cover
my bets in big field I do believe value can be had in a winning
sense.
Selection –
Supaseus 1pt win @ 10-1 (11’s BF),
Minority Report 1pt win @ 16-1 (23’s BF), Capable Guest 1pt @ 33-1
(37’s BF) & Flipando 1pt @ 22-1 (26’s BF)
Well Chief
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