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Preview
20 June 2007
3.25 Prince of Wales stakes
Group 1 (4yo+) 10F Good Ground
1 - Dylan Thomas - Didn't
look the best of the Ballydoyle youngsters but progressed highly
last season as a 3yo which had him just denied a win in the English
Derby when just failing close home to win. A 3 times group 1 winner
and narrowly denied a 4th group 1 success when just failing to reel
in Notnowcato at the Curragh last time over 11F and may not have had
the race to suit as he is produced with sustained effort. Not
certain to reverse that form with the Stoute runner with the rain
about possibly taking the edge out of the ground like it did at the
Curragh. The smaller field should help him to reverse form with Sir
Percy as a small tactical field suits the Ballydoyle runner more
over this shorter trip then the derby and he should take great
credit from his run in the English derby as he was in front for a
long time that day. Beaten twice by notnowcato when there has been
rain prior to racing and could struggle to reverse the form this
time.
My Tissue Price - 100/30
2 - Manduro - Finished 3rd in
a decent renewal of this race last term and has progressed since
this race. A group 1 winner when beating Turtle Bowl by 5L, a horse
that has franked the form going into today's group 1 over a mile. It
must be stressed that the very soft conditions that day may have
been too soft for that rival, whose class got him so close to this
talented French raider. Beat Notnowcato in this race last season and
both have since improved to be group 1 winners. It is a good head to
head featuring two very highly regarded trainers. The distance
between them can be reduced by the rain getting in the ground. Both
don't mind a variety of different conditions, but any ease would be
more of a bonus for Notnowcato. The small field, the jockey booking,
and speed figures, have him as the one to beat in this race today.
My tissue Price - 3/1
3 - Notnowcato - Has got to
the level of group 1 winner by winning the Juddmonte and he also won
the Gold cup when narrowly beating Dylan Thomas at the Curragh. A
hard horse to pass when getting his head in front, he has good form
with many of these in the field. He also has tactical speed over
shorter trips, making him a good horse in small fields. Johnnie
Murtagh is booked for the ride, having previously won on the horse.
He looks the ideal booking for this horse, as he is very good in
these affairs on runners that like to be up in the firing line. Rain
will help his cause, with confirming or reversing running with
Manduro & Dylan Thomas. A group 1 performer, he should give
another good account at this level and go better then 12 months ago
when outclassed against two very good horses.
My Tissue Price - 3/1
4 - Pressing - A group 3
winner who has been found wanting at the highest level and seems to
be best when the ground is quick, hard to know what to entirely to
make of his form on his debut start for Michael Jarvis, but the
trainer must seem to see something in him to pitch him in at the
deep end here. One to watch.
My Tissue price - 25/1
5 - Red Rocks - Winner at
Sandown when beating Notnowcato in good style but it has to be
pointed out that Notnowcato was on the fat side and very much in
need of a run so the form could well be turned on its head. Not
likely to be below his best if any give in his ground the way he
travels suggests that firm ground sees him at his best and on his
day he is a very talented horse. Has fallen below this level on a
few occasions in this country and others are likely to have more
gears in the finish and a place would be the best I can see under
Frankie Dettori has a very good record.
My tissue price - 5/1
6 - Sir Percy - Seems best
when given a true end to end gallop and has suffered in muddling
affairs since winning the Derby .The injuries have seemly taken the
edge of him. The stamina test isn't likely to be strong enough for
him to be at his best. He needs to return to some form to be
involved at this level and it looks like retirement to stud is upon
this horse at the end of the season as he struggles at this level.
Not likely to confirm form with Dylan Thomas who has gone on and
only just beat Notnowcato in the champion stakes in which both were
over the top at the end of the season with notnowcato looking the
worse of the pair in the paddock. It's a shame to see given that he
had only previously lost once to George Washington in the guineas
when injury struck and his best run since then was in the Sheema
classic where there was a good pace and he finished well. With the
race unlikely to suit he looks held here.
My Tissue Price - 9/1
Tissue - Manduro, NotNowcato 3/1, Dylan Thomas 100/30 , Red
Rocks 5/1, Sir Percy 9/1, Pressing 25/1.
Verdict – A
race that lies between the top 3 who are all group 1 winners in
Europe and are in form to make a bid for another group1. Manduro is
likely to have his supporters, based on last years form. His profile
is very much the same as that of Notnowcato,
in that they have both progressed through the ranks. The race is
likely to suit both runners and the value lies with Notnowcato,
at a best priced 4-1. With rain about, there is a chance that he has
conditions once again to finish in front of Dylan Thomas.
Selection –
Notnowcato 1pt
win @ 4-1 (BF 6.0)
Well Chief
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