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Preview -
19 June 2007
4.55 Ascot Stakes handicap class 2
(4yo+ 0-95) 2M 4F Good
1 – Kashtari – Now back down
to a mark to in which the horse has a chance to run in handicaps
having been kept to group staying races and ran with some promise
last time at Haydock when beating a retreat over 2M when the race
turned into a sprint in the finish. Having mad most of the running
that day he was well placed to have every chance but wasn’t as quick
as some of the younger horses in that race and was beaten on his
merits over 2M. This extra half-mile will suit him and it looks like
this has been on the agenda for quite some time since changing
stables to one that does well in all age handicaps. The ground
should suit today as well so there will be no excuses to be made if
he wasn’t to show his best under top weight. Should confirm form
with Winged D’Argent on today terms from the Haydock run and is
closely matched with Melpomene on that running given the more
suitable race today.
My tissue Price – 25/1
2 – Juniper Girl – impressive
stayer as a 3yo when looking like everything was going to go against
her at York and she just got stronger and stronger as the race went
on and the deep give in the ground that day suited her deep action
well under a light weight. Totally different conditions today and a
heavy weight to carry as she was hit for that win last season and
she will find it tough as a 4yo this season in staying events
without her age allowance helping her in races such as this. From
that York she faces Som Tala and Mceledowey on 14 && 22lbs worse
terms for that victory and that is a massive turn around in the
weights to concede despite the obvious distance she put between
herself and her rivals that day. The return to the track last time
had her running a fair race over a trip that may have been a little
on the short side for her and she is regarded as better then the run
behind Raucous that day.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
3 – Enjoy the Moment – Still
potentially well treated with improvement a possibility, he put a
disappointing run at Epsom behind him to have a ideal race to suit
when tried over the longer distance in the Chester cup and showed
that he has stamina for these long distance handicaps. Best on quick
ground connections will be praying for no rain for a horse that
could emulate Greenwich Meantime and go one better next season in
the Chester Cup as he was unfortunate to have to pass a packing
field. Will need to pass all his rivals once again Ascot can be a
hard track to come from of the pace and he will need to get the
better run of the race to confirm form with Som Tala who meets him
on 3lbs better terms as that is just one of four that finished in
behind in the Chester cup.
My Tissue Price – 16/1
4 - Afrad – Struggled in this
race last season when tailing off after racing up with the pace and
just lacks the class that he once had since going over hurdles.
Henderson has two in the race and the form and weights favour his
other runner more even though afrad has been dropped in the handicap
after being well beaten in this and more recently the Chester Cup in
which he paid with most of the front runners in setting a very
strong pace and was well beaten. A more restraint ride today would
help but he is hard to fancy for this.
My Tissue Price – 66/1
5 – Odiham – Struggles to win
in big fields as he always seems to find trouble but did show
recently that he was as good as ever when winning all out at
Kempton. Best around tight turns it seems he does have stiff
galloping track form as well that stands up and was unlucky not to
have finished closer at Chester and Newmarket in his last two
attempts over 2M trip. Steve Drowns seems to get the best out of
this horse who will be hoping that today is his day in a big race
that he deserves to win and given the race was run to suit Enjoy The
Moment more so then Odiham last time there is reason to feel
optimistic that the form can be turned around with both Som Tala and
the Osbourne horse on these better terms today. Tied in tightly with
Inchdampha on form behind Detroit City at Newmarket he has better
claims on today going if not getting to fast under foot. He has form
to tie him in with most of these runners and dropped 2lbs from
Chester run he is very well handicapped on the form he has on the
all weather Polly track.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
6 – Grafton Street – Always
ones to respect are Ballydoyle runners in this race having only ran
one runner in the race in which he finished 3rd in behind Golden
quest and Leg Spinner who runs in this again today. Lightly raced
and open to improvement he was pulled out of the Chester Cup on the
morning of the race and hasn’t seen a race course since. Comes here
a fresh horse, which are no concerns given the set up in which he
comes from. Should know how they fair against the 2005 winner and
what it takes to win this handicap the main concern to be will he
stay the trip having never ran further then 1.5M on a racecourse but
when you are backed into favouritism for the Chester cup and your by
Danehill who has 7-33 over 2M prodigies there is reason for
optimism.
My Tissue price – 7/1
7 – Leg Spinner – hard to
know what to make of the 2005 winner of this race who managed to win
all out from Golden Quest. Lightly campaigned since that race he was
last seen winning a handicap hurdle of just 97 at the Perth festival
and you cant deny the fact that Tony Martin places his horses so
well over fences as well as on the flat. Was always a talented horse
when trained by Mick Channon, She has improved for the stiffer test
of stamina while with Tony Martin. A harder race on paper then the
one two years back in my view, the handicapper hasn’t given him an
impossible task here today of just a 3lb higher mark and he always
has to rate as a danger even though a flat galloping course always
seemed to suit him best.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
8 – Full House – hacked up in
good style last time at Goodwood and is a horse that really does
well when given on top of the ground conditions, as it was that day.
The run at Newmarket in the Cearewitch can be discounted as the
conditions would have been too soft for him based on jumps form he
is always kept away from the track when cut in the ground, and can
be rated as better then that run suggests. Up in class as the
Goodwood race was average to say the least he does have claims at
this level and if staying dry his chances are enhanced based on the
good place effort in this last year in which he needs to improve on
to have a chance at confirming form with Mceldowney from the Mark
Johnston yard that always is respected in these kind of races.
My Tissue Price – 20/1
9 – Nobelix – Last seen in
the swinton hurdle in which he was well behind Adopted Hero for whom
he has to concede weight to in this race today. Stays easy 2M over
hurdles its to be seen if this stiff step up in trip is likely to
suit as he is suited to today’s conditions. A winner at Haydock over
14F he was mightily impressive when running out a easy winner from
Ti Adora, but that race isn’t a patch on this race today and he is
9lbs high in the handicap and will need to have improved for hurdles
to come back and win this race today as he struggled when upped in
class after that win. Jamie Spencer booking is a positive.
My Tissue Price – 40/1
10 – Liss Ard – not a horse I
know too much about apart from the fact he looks quite exposed and
apart from a few fair hurdling efforts has shown very little to get
excited about on the flat in the past 12 months. Suited to big field
handicaps having won once in 5 starts with more then 16 runners in
and a good place effort he has to find some form to have a chance in
a top handicap such as this.
My Tissue price – 100/1
11 – Princlet – A slightly
fortunate winner over 16F here last time when Nedd Ludd was squeezed
up at the business end of the race. The owner of this horse is a
well-respected man in the national hunts game so the fact they have
been giving this a spin on the turf is eye catching, as connections
wouldn’t be aiming at flat handicaps if they didn’t think he had a
chance. Came through last time after travelling well through out the
race and enjoys a strong end to end gallop which is expected in a
field this size today. Has a penalty to overcome for that win and
given a harder task in class to overcome there is no reason why he
can’t perform again given that Nicky Henderson has won handicaps on
the flat in the past and is always respected when sending one back
from hurdling.
My Tissuer Price – 10/1
12 – Winged D’Argent – Best
effort last season came at Sandown in a muddling race but he was set
some tough asks last season including the Ascot Gold Cup and the
Goodwood cup amongst many others. Changed handlers over the winter
and yet to really get going for his new trainer which will do well
to find any improvement in what Mark Johnston did. Has form to make
up on quite a few of these on Chester Cup running and Haydock form.
The stiff track and dropping in weight may give is supporters
something to grab onto and based on Chester form he isn’t totally
disregarded as he was quite prominent and paid for the strong pace.
Partnered once again with Neil Callen he isn’t certain to win this
but could finally show more then he has in recent running.
My Tissue Price – 28/1
13 – Raslan – Another from the
National Hunt game and one that is best when tackling firm
conditions as proving when beating Key Time at Warwick last season.
The easier ground isn’t ideal even though he won some poor events
over hurdles on soft ground, but some of his good ground efforts
have him well marked down on what he has achieved. Formally with
Mark Johnston and now with David Pipe he was always thought of as a
stayer on the flat and rates as a interesting horse returning to the
level for a crack at this prize. All best form in small fields he
was not classy enough for grade 1 opponents in the Royal Sun
alliance hurdle at Cheltenham festival and his handler will be
hoping for better in handicaps at the royal meeting. Interesting.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
14 – Melpomene – Mark
Johnston a trainer to respect in this handicap as his runners often
run very well and he should know what to expect from the likes of
Raslan and Winged D’Argent in terms of his runners ability and it is
interesting to see how the market rates both his two runners on the
lead up to this race. Went close with Golden Quest 2yrs back and
unlucky with his runner last year in this very race, he saddles a
improving 4yo who stayed on at the one pace behind Haydock
specialist Colloquial last time and had two of today’s runners well
beaten behind including the top weight. The ground is ideal for a
big run today and a lot will depend on the horse staying this trip
well enough to land this, but based on the last run he was keeping
on rather then sprinting home like the others and just like Kashtari
will appreciate this stiff further test of stamina. Remember him
travelling up superbly well when losing to Burnt Oak on soft ground
and he looked that day very one paced so the further he goes the
better he is likely to be.
My tissue Price – 20/1
15 – Mceldowney – Very
exposed handicapper who was unlucky to have meet trouble in running
in this race last year mid race in which he was shuffled back and
then of the bridle for a long way, he finished well that day to
finish 5th and shouldn’t have to much problems in reversing the form
with Full house if as good as last season. Returned in May at Ayr to
run a sound race behind Trance who was starting to look well
handicapped again. Always one that will touch bigger in running
because of the way he runs he knows his way around this track and
today’s conditions should be ideal. Tied in on form with Som Tala
and Juniper Girl on York running last season in which he was giving
away age allowance he should have more in favour this time around
and is evenly matched with those two on form. Interesting to see how
he compares to stable mate in the betting but both Mark Johnston
runners look to have a fair chance of going well in this race today.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
16 – Scotland Yard –
frustrating horse over hurdles this season as he was hard to settle
or didn’t quicken when asked, but is a very talented horse there is
no doubting that and a big field run at a strong pace could be the
making of this horse. Formally with Mark Johnston and now with David
Pipe he and Raslan both could have improved for hurdling and come
back to the flat as strong horses. Trainer will be trying to emulate
his father who won this race in the past with his hurdlers and
Scotland Yard potentially had the softer season as terms of top
races go. Drying ground would suit he just lacks that extra bit of
class that his stable mate potentially has and rates in my view as
the lesser of the two even though both have top jockey bookings.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
17 – Inchdanmph – Stays all
day and seems to be ideally presented with opportunities in the big
staying handicaps at Newmarket these days. Well beaten on his return
to the track at York a stiffer track such as Ascot should help him
to improve on that run in which he may have needed the run and once
again finds himself at the right end of the handicap. Ties form in
with Detroit City against most of the other hurdlers in the race and
you will notice that he has the class to beat them on the flat but
he is 7lbs worse of at the weights with Odiham for today’s race and
Autumn ground does seem to bring the best out in him so there is
every chance that his rival from that day can reverse the form if
once again not meeting trouble in running.
My Tissue Price – 16/1
18 – Som Tala – At the right
end of the handicap and has a very strong chance on his run in the
Chester Cup in which he came there looking like the winner before
staying on at the one pace. Stable won this last season with an
improving stayer and they have another in that mould. Well beaten by
Juniper Girl as a 3yo he has a massive swing in the weights and
likely to have improved from that day to overcome the age allowance
which is loss against Mceldowney. Weighted to reverse form with
Enjoy the Moment a stiff staying track such as this will suit, as he
is 3/3 on stiff tracks on form. Low weight helps his cause and low
draw can’t be a big negative over this marathon distance. Laid out
for this race the change in jockey is a positive one for this yard
so far this season.
My Tissue Price – 7/1
19 – Adopted Hero – Now with
Gary Moore from Howard Johnson and one that seems to run very well
at Ascot in general (winner on the flat here). Has had good runs
from the front over hurdles and based on his effort last month in
the Swinton hurdle looks in good shape since the change in stables.
Well handicapped if retaining his flat ability from a few seasons
ago but a surprising jockey booking as Ryan Moore rides Raslan for
David Pipe another National Hunt trainer. Has the beating of Nobelix
on hurdles form and one that could run a place at a big price at
what I consider his favourite track.
My Tissue Price – 33/1
20 – Raucous – Ran well after
returning this season with a win over 2M and has form tied in with a
useful yardstick to a few of these at Newmarket last time. That
rival is better suited to further so the proximity of the form
between the two would favour her chances today in what is a true
test of stamina. Unexposed and at the foot of the weights there is
more to come from this horse and a steady progression would most
probably have been ideal and he will become a very well handicapped
horse when dropped in level if he was to find this to tough at his
early stage of his career. Micky Fenton returns bidding to keep his
100% record in tact, Raucous could find this staying marathon
bringing more improvement out of him and the Cesrewitch looks like
an end of season target for this horse.
My Tissue Price – 18/1
Tissue price – Grafton Street, Som Tala 7/1, Raslan, Princlet
10/1, Odiham, Mceldoweny, Leg Spinner12/1, Juniper Girl 14/1,
Inchdampha, Enjoy the moment 16/1, Raucous 18/1, Melpomne, Full
House 20/1, Scotland Yard, Kasthari 25/1, Winged D’Argent 28/1,
Adopted Hero 33/1, Noblix 40-1, Afrad 66-1, Liss Ard 100-1
Verdict – Not a
bad renewal of this handicap and a lot depends on just how good
Grafton Street is from a yard that don’t target this race as one of
their races to win at the royal meeting. Princlet and Raslan look
the best from the National Hunt trainers and Princlet has been well
supported for this race at a best priced 7-1, however David Pipe has
two runners that are interesting recruits back on to the flat has
Raslan at 12-1 is holding up as good solid value. Som Tala Has the
form lines to go well and any 8-1 around is good value, while at
bigger prices the top weight Kashtari is overpriced at 100-1 in some
places and Odiham at 28-1 is massive value in a open handicap.
Selection –
Odiham 0.5pt @ 28-1 (48’s BF),
Som Tala 1pt @ 8-1 (9’s BF),
Raslan 1pt @ 12-1 (12.5’s BF)
Kashtari 0.5pt @ 100-1 (249’s BF)
Best of luck all
Well Chief
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