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Preview -
18 June 2007
8.15 Warwick –
Pricewaterscoopers Handicap (class 4) (4yo+ 0-80) 7F Soft
1 – Luckylover – Has progressed
throughout the winter on the southwell fibresand course and has
returned to turf on a lower mark. Couldn’t dictate the pace to land
the spoils on ground potentially that could have been too firm for
him. This is despite handling good to firm in the past. This softer
surface may well suit, despite the poor sire stats on soft racing
ground of 1-32. This drop back to 7F can’t be certain to suit, given
the sharpness of the track. He’s a front runner, a tactic suited to
this track. If he gets the chance to dictate the running, he could
run a big race, if not pressed overly for the lead. Weight counts on
this type of ground. Under top weight, he may just tire at the
finish, if he’s still in with a chance. Well beaten by Councellor
over 9F at Wolverhampton, he can be considered better then that
defeat. He is only 1lb better off after the claim and he was running
without the tongue tie that helped him to progress. Today should be
a much closer match between the two.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
2 – Councellor – Wins his fair share
of races and acts most probably slightly better on the all weather
then on turf. His turf form however, isn’t too bad. He returned to
turf to run a good race behind Daaweitza, who has form lines with
some good handicap winners so far this season. That was a fair
effort for a horse who is most probably handicapped on turf up to
his very best form. Drops in class here, after contesting a strong
looking handicap, in which the leader made all. iYou can overlook
that form, as many didn’t have the run to suit. He’s better on a
sounder surface then ground this soft. That has to be a concern for
today’s race. Closely matched with the changes in trip, course and
surface with Luckylover, and the booking of Neil Callen is an
interesting one, for a stable that is 2-9 in all age handicaps here
and currently in form for a small setup.
My Tissue price – 9/1
3 - Proud Killer – the unexposed
horse in the field. He’s one that should enjoy the conditions today,
having won on Soft ground at Chepstow, which can get very testing
for a lightly raced 3yo sprinter. Now a 4yo and making his seasonal
debut after 334 days off the track. May just need this run today to
be at his best. The maiden he won on Soft ground was a poor race in
general, with the runner up failing to win next time out at odds on.
Also, those in behind proving to be poor horses. There is a chance
that Proud Killer will have his work cut out to be winning handicaps
of this mark. He had the impossible task of trying to win the Jersey
Stakes last season at Royal Ascot, in which he ran with credit in
for 100-1 shot. Then he was struggling when sent off at 11-1 in a
Kempton handicap of 72. Runs back on turf off 73 and it looks a
tough ask, unless the horse has improved over the winter. Eddie
Ahern is booked for the ride, having ridden the horse to victory on
his only start on the horse. He has a good strike rate around this
track.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
4 – Barons Spy – On a form line
through Moody Tunes, Baron Spy has the beating of Luckylover at the
weights today. This is based on his performance at Haydock, when he
was narrowly denied a win by Moody Times stable mate Bold Marc, in a
similar type of race to this. He put in a poor run last time at
Newbury, in what looked a better race than this. He has only ever
encountered this type of ground once before, when beaten at
Nottingham over 8F. This easier 7F may see his stamina last out, on
a surface and on breeding, which should suit. Just as effective over
7F as a mile, he has ran well round here before, despite failing to
win in 3 attempts at the track. He is 8lbs higher then when winning
at Leicester under James Doyle, when beating Full Victory on good to
soft ground. Under a different claimer this time, and one that helps
with his handicap mark by claiming 5lbs, he doesn’t win as many
races as he should. Though he often runs up to form and is likely to
give yet another fair account.
My Tissue Price – 13/2
5 – Marshman – Caught the eye with
late progression last time at Goodwood, but couldn’t match the
winner’s turn of foot that day. It looks like he could be returning
to winning ways soon enough, after dropping 16lbs below the mark he
had when beating Partners in Jazz over 7F at Newcastle on good
ground. The losing run stretches to 22 runs now. There has been
steady decline in his form. After another 3lbs dropped for the
Goodwood run, he does look ready to strike, when under the right
conditions. Was disappointing on his return to the track at
Newcastle this season in which under Saleem Golem he finished 2L
behind The Osteopath for whom he meets on identical terms but ridden
by an inexperienced claimer this time taking 7lbs off. Best on a
sounder surface then conditions this soft, he looks to struggle to
reverse the form even though he has form on a sharp track in
comparison to that of his rival today.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
6 – Ochre Bay – Winner back in
December over 7F when beating Dixieland Boy by a narrow distance
under Graham Gibbons and isn’t certain to enjoy ground as soft as
this on breeding. Well beaten on only start on soft ground so there
has to be major concerns on this going today as he bids to overcome
a 158 day absence which shouldn’t be to hard given the maiden win
coming after a similar sort of absence from the course. Likely to
prove to be better on the all weather then turf and made the most of
the first time check pieces which he doesn’t wear today. This sharp
7F should suit based on Dunstall park win but given the 3yo run
behind Valentino Swing over 6F at Nottingham it looks likely that
others will prove to be better bets for today’s race.
My Tissue Price – 33/1
7 – Valentino Swing – Returns to the
track after 215 days of the track and needs to prove his fitness,
which could be his undoing today. Holds Ochre Bay on 3yo form and
likely to confirm that under Kerrin Mcevoy which is a positive
booking for this yard that doesn’t have many runners. Course and
distance winner on soft ground there is a lot in favour of a big run
for his seasonal reappearance even though all he beat that day was
selling and class 5 handicap runners. Needs improvement in a better
class of race today but with the best course form from the 4 that
have previously ran at this track he has to rate as one of the
leading players if fit to do himself justice today.
My Tissue Price 9/1
8 – Scotland the Brave – At her best
when getting her toe in and the booking of Frankie Dettori is eye
catching for all runners for this stable as he boosts a 4-16 record
for runners from this yard. The return to the track at Newcastle in
which she finished behind The Osteopath is likely to bring her on
for the run and with track conditions more likely to suit she has
strong claims at turning the form around today. Races prominent she
should get the run of the race and carrying less then 9 stone is
added bonus for the conditions. Suited to 7F, which is a specialist
trip and not too badly handicapped on the basis of most of her form.
Most probably best suited to a galloping track but then again the
ground may have been too quick on both occasions at Catterick to do
her any favours so today could bring about improvement.
My Tissue Price – 4/1
9 – The Osteopath – Closely matched
with two of the runners today based on Newcastle running in which
suits his style of racing and the come from behind style is most
probably best carried off by today’s jockey so it has to be a
positive move by the stable. Another that looks best on a straight
galloping track, he has had two efforts on sharp tracks as this and
both occasions has flopped quite badly including when conditions
were there to suit. Not the most ideal track for his come from
behind tactics as it can be hard to make up ground when they kick of
the final turn and the pace will have to be quite forceful for him
to confirm form with Scotland The Brave. Handles soft ground but
would prefer slightly better going there is a race for him as he now
finds himself 4lbs below last winning mark and a win should be
obtained over 7F in the next couple of runs. Stable places them to
win here and the Jockey booking suggests they do expect every chance
of winning here.
My tissue Price – 6/1
10 – Doctor’s Cave – Paying his way
now after a long losing streak and has landed 4 of his last 6 starts
on the all weather. 1-19 on Turf and yet to run into a place he
isn’t the most consistent horse on this surface and only turf win
was a maiden at Goodwood 3yrs ago. Dropped from 89 to 61 on turf
tells the story why this horse hasn’t shown the same form on the
turf as the all weather as he was over evaluated as a youngster to
do himself any justice. Comes into this race on top of his game and
3lbs lower then the last win on the sand he is up 2 grades and
needing to prove that this surface suits even though the deep all
weather surface has improved him no end this winter. 7F suits and a
low weight is in his favour and this is a much easier task then he
was set last time at this course when well beaten last against
Etaala, Jedburgh and Macs Love all listed class performers.
My Tissue Price – 9/1
Tissue – Scotland the Brave 4/1Fav, The Osteopath 6/1, Barons
Spy 13/2, Luckylover 8/1, Councellor, Doctors Cave, Valentino Swing
9/1, Marshman 12/1, Proud Killer 25/1, Ochre Bay 33/1.
Verdict – Best of
a poor bunch of races on the eve of Royal Ascot and one in which
should be a good test in the conditions. Scotland the Brave at 5-1
with most bookmakers still is better value then 6.0 on Betfair at
present and rates as fair value against the 7-2 on the Osteopath who
has to overcome the race potentially not being run to suit. Barons
Spy is always involved in races such as this, but the value lies
elsewhere in this handicap as the jockeys move down the Market
leaders. Course winner Valentino Swing
is 16-1 generally with most bookmakers and isn’t much bigger on
Betfair at present, while the 20-1 on
Councellor looks generous to say the least, even if on a
mark which represents one most probably right up to his best and
these two along with Scotland the Brave hold the value basis in this
race, with the double figures on offer.
Selection –
Councellor 1pt @ 20-1 (BF 21’s) +
Valentino Swing 1pt @ 16-1 (BF
16’s)
Well Chief
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