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Preview -
13 June 2007
7.45 The Tazmyn Rowely Handicap
Chase – Class 3 (5yo+ 0-130)
1 – Bagan – returned to the
track after just over two years of the course to land a chase in
good style at this course and distance from Pass the Class and all
things Equal and looks the type to progress over fences with
experience. Given 18 days since that run in which he was only pushed
out to win and won a race in which he was always travelling like a
class animal he is. The bounce factor has to come into the equation
with the ground likely to be not as soft as it was this day and the
better ground is certain to improve this horse further as his best
form over hurdles was on good racing ground and being by Rainbow
Quest is likely to handle the better conditions well. Trainer does
well at the track with his runners and if not bouncing Bagan is
likely to progress to take on better rivals through out the winter
in the region of around 140, but with a horse who has flopped when
turned out with in 2 weeks of last run Bagan after a long absence
may still be feeling the effects of a long absence after 18 days
from his last appearance under top weight.
My Tissue Price – 3/1
2 – Duke of Buckingham – A
experienced handicapper having ran over fences 28 times in total and
one that has creped into being well handicapped on a 8lbs lower mark
then when giving whispered secret a decent handicapper a beating at
Huntingdon over a similar distance to this. The last run when
pulling up against the progressing Forest Green last time may
possibly been a case of the horse needing the run and this race
should see him in better light with a superb record on quick ground
and back over a trip that should see the horse in better light.
Trainers form isn’t something that should be taken much notice with
as Paul Webber horses seem to win within turn and the 34 days since
a winner should be taken with a pinch of salt in my view. Has a
great record in handicaps such as this and if returning to form,
which is possible, has got to rate as having a chance in this small
field with him rarely failing to run well in these sorts of fields.
The biggest concern has to be that he is no spring chicken at 11yo
and possibly his better days are behind him but you can’t totally
rule him out in a field such as this.
My Tissue Price – 5/1
3 – Tonic Du Charmil –
Another fairly exposed chaser in this field and one that can be
forgiven the last run after returning from a long lay off and the
race maybe coming to soon as he unseated his rival when already
struggling behind Iron Man. Dropped in level from that day and
needing to show more then when well beaten by Il Duce a talented
horse from Alan King yard who is yet to really convince over fences
in his short career. Best performance has come on soft ground but
one that has handled quicker conditions in the past to a decent
level of form. Tom Scudarmore has ridden this horse very well in the
past and knows his quirks inside and out so there is no problem with
the assistance from the saddle but shorter trips have seen the horse
at his best and he could well be outstayed in this event today. A
course specialist having landed two from two around here and a yard
that has hit the form of old and with a horse that is a small field
bully from the front he could be hard to pass around her if
establishing a rhythm in front with the handicap mark not totally
out of the question on being improved on.
My Tissue price – 7/2
4 – Sento – Another to have
been pulled up in the same race at Tonic Du Charmil behind Iron Man
and is taking a drop in grade from that race and out of the two the
Pipe horse showed more in this race before being pulled up and it is
unlikely that 1lb will make any difference to the chances of this
horse in reference to Tonic Du charmil. A horse that goes well fresh
just puts extra doubt on if this horse can overcome the 5lbs higher
then last win, but with a small field and Robert Thornton booked for
the ride there are some positives even though any rain will end up
adding more woe then cheer to the chances of this horse. Trip suits
but his runs at this track have been poor and Alan King doesn’t
usally score with to many handicap chasers here.
My Tissue Price – 12/1
5 – Lord on The Run – Dropped
2lbs by the handicapper after finding the 10lbs higher then when
scoring At Hexham to much to overcome last time out when well beaten
by Locksmith who has turned the corner at long last after becoming
very disappointing for David Pipe. Never fails to complete under
today’s jockey and handles quick ground well enough to have a say
but wouldn’t mind slightly slower ground so the rain may help him to
turn around the form which has seen him look well in the grip of the
handicapper. Yet to run at this track he may need a stiffer test of
stamina and this fairly easy galloping track may well be against him
today and the trainer is yet to win a handicap chase here in four
attempts which isn’t to significant.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
6 – Baodai – Finally starting
to get to grips after a slow start in handicaps around this level
when first joining Philip Hobbs yard. Travels well within in his
races before flattering out this drop back in trip from when being
outstayed last time over 22F at the tight track of Fontwell after
looking the winner on the approach to the last. Richard Johnson has
failed to get the same out of the horse as Tom O’Brien has in recent
weeks but takes over this time in the hope he gets more out of the
horse now it has progressed and this step up in grade makes for a
harder task but in receipt of weight after carrying top weight last
time he makes some appeal at this level after winning a 0-120 on a
7lbs lower mark but after failing to get home at his favourite track
there has to be a few questions on how much he will enjoy this
galloping 2.5M but should make his presence felt.
My Tissue Price – 6/1
7 – Great Character – gets
masses amount of weight from all of his rivals and even though one
of the harder ones to run with has to rate as a possible of winning
this with just 10 stone on the back. Often seen in big fields it
will be a battle up front with Tonic Du Charmill to see who is
likely to take them along and this could end up being quite a stern
test for what is a small field and with a feather weight you would
expect him to stick about for quite a long time in this event. Rain
wont hinder the chances of this ex-irish trained chaser as cut in
the ground suits as does a left handed track over this type of
distance so there is little to dislike. Paul Maloney rode him well
last time and the winner of that handicap went well in a half decent
handicap at Worcester on Tuesday so the form isn’t overly weak and
there are possible to his chances at the weights for today race.
My Tissue Price – 5/1
Verdict –
Bagan can continue to progress at this
level and will most probably go on to better things, but with
concerns over the time in between races, there seems little point in
taking a short price on him and with Tonic Du
Charmil and Baodai having
niggling stamina doubts and Great Character potentially being
unsettling to the Pipe horse u could draw to the conclusion that the
value lies with the hope that Duke of
Buckingham can return to his best form at a time of the
year which suits him and the top weight proving no problems as in
the past.
Selection –
Duke of Buckingham 2pts @ ca 8/1 (Betfair
9.6)
Well Chief
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