|
Aero
Club Handicap-
08 June 2007
4.30 Goodwood Aero Club
Handicap 7F (4yo+ 0-85) GD-FM
1 – Binanti – needs to
improve on recent form to be winning this race today but there are
quite a few things that point in his favour. Often up the pace this
muddling affair shouldn’t be a concern for him, as he should be
placed to strike off a likely dictated tempo. The Jockey booking is
significant as Binanti is quite a hard horse to win with and George
Baker has winning form on the horse. The conditions are with in his
liking and being a course & distance winner the course shouldn’t
trouble him in the slightest. Handicapped to go well and possibly
win if returning to his best.
My Tissue Price – 10/1
2 – Loyal Royal – Has very
poor recent form based on the run at Ascot in which he finished
11/21 behind Zidane and no surprise to see him dropped in class here
to try and return to form. Still ever so slightly unexposed he could
turn out to be well handicapped if returning to form on this better
surface then the last effort in which the ground may have been too
soft. Likely to be raced up with the pace he should have a race to
suit but even though he does encounter better conditions here today
he does prefer quicker ground and has yet to prove that 7F suits.
My Tissue Price – 25/1
3 – Bee Stinger – Suited by
the likely running of today’s race with the field size ideal and
with the course already proving to suit in the past and the
handicapper giving him a chance and the run behind Nawaqees shows
that he is running into form. Tied in with a few of these at the
weights he has lots in favour for today’s race with the jockey
booking ok and the trainer having winners here and elsewhere so a
bold bid is expected with a race very much likely to suit.
My Tissue Price – 8/1
4 – Daniel Thomas – Ran very
well here last time when a eye catching 5th to Scarlet Flyer in
which he was tad unlucky in and can be rated higher on the ratings
then what he has been quoted as. Similar type of race to that and
one in which may not be totally ran to suit with the lack of a
strong pace developing and he may need to be ridden with a much
forceful tactics to get the right pitch in the race. Jim Crowley
keeps the ride but seems to be a bit unlucky on this horse and will
be trying to win at the 5th time of asking. This race could be a
harder task then last time and even with the course suiting it’s not
a race to be trying and win back what you lost on the horse last
time as it’s tight and value is the key.
My Tissue Price – 7/1
5 – Rubenstar – Tied in with
quite a few of these on form and its hard to see him reversing many
of the form lines he has today but the change in jockey from Philip
Hills to Ted Durcan is a eye catching one as Ted has a good record
for Mark Tompkins. However the horse needs a good pace to run off
and in this small field with no real pace his chances are once again
shortened. This track suits being a course and distance winner and
there is no really negatives we can arrive at on the counts of
ground, he just needs to find some form to reverse the form with a
few of these on recent running behind Hassard & Grizedale who he
reposes on 6lbs better terms for 3.5L.
My Tissue Price – 14/1
6 – Grizedale – Good winner
last time of a Newmarket Handicap in which he was always well to the
front of the pack before staying on best to land the spoils over 7F
under today’s jockey Paul Doe who has a good record on this horse
for a yard that is very much in good form at the moment and have
their fair share of handicap winners at this track. The conditions
of the track and trip shouldn’t be to much of a problem having also
won at this track and the 6lbs handicap penalty is the biggest
negative to the horse make up as he is well exposed. Best when
running around 20 days from last run he may have enough in the
locker to go in again in what doesn’t look a bad race but no better
then the last race at Newmarket in which he won at big odds.
My Tissue price – 6/1
7 – Spring Goddess – Returned
to the turf a well handicapped horse and ran a close 2nd to Symbol
of Peace in a easier race then this today, needs to prove that the
progression gained from the all weather can be transferred back to
turf as she was very impressive on the all weather under this jockey
recently. She also needs to prove she is capable on a track such as
this over 7F and she has a lot going for her but with a few things
to prove she may just find a few too good for her back on turf and
is poorly weighted with Barney Mcgrew on Lingfield 7F running.
My Tissue Price – 13/2
8 – Material Witness – If you
take recent form on face value you couldn’t back this horse on any
form line given he would have to be taken on, but with so much in
favour you would be wrong to dismiss the chances of this horse whose
last effort can be written off behind Daniel Thomas as he slipped
badly at the start and could turn out to be a blessing in disguise
as the handicap dropped the horse 5lbs for that run. Back partnered
with Martin Dwyer he has the course and jockey to make him have a
outstanding chance and even though regressive given his highest
winning mark is 25lbs higher he has the perfect race and conditions
to suit and a massive weight swing with Binanti for 2.5L at Sandown
last august and Grizedale in September at this very track.
My Tissue Price – 6/1
9 – Barney Mcgrew – Didn’t
stay the trip when well supported before the off at Wolverhampton
last time and has a good amount in favour as well with a promising
weight swing with Spring Goddess to help his cause. Oscar is booked
again and has a cracking record on this unexposed horse. Has had two
lack-lustered attempts on turf so far but wouldn’t be the first
horse to find the solid track on the coast against him and run to
green on debut to do himself justice. Weighted to go well and likely
to enjoy this course his biggest concern has to be the form of the
trainer but if ready and on key he has a promising chance on form
and one I expect more is to come from.
My Tissue Price – 6/1
10 – China Cherub – Wouldn’t
be a handicap without a runner from Richard Hannon and what a dream
it would be to have a mole in this setup. Hard to line him up
against any of these having never ran against any of them before and
some of his sprint form is eye catching without being to explosive.
She doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary and the 7F hasn’t
really told us a lot in the past but she has handled this course
very nicely in the past. Trainer continues to churn out the winners
this time of year and is usually the best time to catch them so she
may be on top of her game today but she hasn’t the greatest win to
run ratio but is starting to get back down to a handicap mark she is
capable off.
My Tissue Price – 13/2
11 – Small Stakes – Another
who hasn’t really got much to go on in regards to meeting the others
and form lines but the form of the horse isn’t to overly inspiring
and it looks like he has to be of interest just because he has a
very light weight in this race. Should be fit for this race at a
course he and his trainer looks likely to pick up some success
within the coming season and the main concern lies with the ability
to see this trip out as he has been at his best over 6F in the past
and is another who needs to prove himself as good on turf as on the
all weather.
My Tissue price – 14-1
Verdict – Likely
to be a keenly tested race in which a whole host have chances in and
there is certainly likely to be value with in this race. Daniel
Thomas has claims given the eye catching run last time and no doubt
will have his supporters as you would expect, but there are a few
things that could easily work against him and others make more
appeal. Material Witness has to
be in with a very good chance in this race today just for the fact
that if he can’t go close today with every thing in place then it is
time to put a line through him until he goes for low class 5
handicaps in the 0-60 variety. Barney
Mcgrew cannot be discounted against these today and if on
the all weather would be my clear favourite.
Selection –
Barney Mcgrew 1pt @ 14-1 (BF 25’s)
& Material Witness 1pt @ 10/1
(BF 11’s)
Well Chief
|