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Preview 02 June
2007 - Derby Day
Editor's
note
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am delighted to welcome Well Chief's race previews to my website.
Well Chief is a highly respected
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for a number of years.
3.30
Epsom
Vodafone
Dash - Heritage Handicap class 2 (3yo+) 5F Good good to soft
1 - Green Manalashi - Very much
a improved sprinter this term in which sees
him back rated a 100+ handicapper for his shrewd new handler kevin
Ryan and
in a very open competitive handicap has it all to do to give weight
away all
round here. The large field shouldn't be a problem having won before
in a
16+ runner handicap and the conditions of the track look just about
right
for this experienced sprinter. The 5F here may not be ideal for him
as two
previous runs at the track has seen him below his best and its as
far away
from the ideal flat galloping tracks which sees him go well and on
this
basis he looks best overlooked despite coming into the race very
much in
form but needing a personnel best to land this race.
My Tissue price - 20/1
2 - Bond City - Will be much
better suited to this class 2 handicap after
being given a impossible task tackling group class sprinters last
time at
York in which he was firmly put into his place by Amadeus Wolf.
Weighted
2lbs above his best winning handicap mark on this return to
handicaps for
his new handler who has had him on the go this spring after leaving
Brian
Smart's yard. A course specialist having ran 4 times at this track
only
failing to make the frame once he has the services once again of
Frankie
Dettori who has previously won on the horse and been in the money on
3 other
occasions. This looks to have been on the agenda since changing
handlers
and has been kept away from handicaps to protect his mark. All best
form has
come in smaller field handicaps he has ran well in the past in this
big
handicap races and is respected.
My Tissue Price - 12/1
3 - Hogmaneigh - Always sits on
the memory after finishing like a train to
land a handicap at Sandown over 5F and has continued to be a unlucky
horse
on each occasion since but its how much you buy into that fact of a
unlucky
horse. Large fields cause traffic problems for a horse who is held
up but a
strong pace is needed for him to find his feet so there is always a
risk in
backing these types. Saleem Golem returns to the saddle still with
his 3lbs
claim in tact and he has the pace for this race today with a good
speed
figure recorded and this downhill cavalry charge may just be the
making of
him on his first start here with conditions ideal for a big run and
Stuart
Williams has a top strike rate in all age handicaps.
My Tissue Price - 6/1
4 - Fire up the Band - Former
winner of this race and one that finds himself
5lbs lower in the handicap then when winning this race, a few years
on he
might not be as good as old but returned to winning ways when
beating Bond
City at Nottingham in which he is better weighted with that rival
for today's
race. Partnered with Aiden Nicholls who was dropped for this ride
2yrs ago
when Richard Hughes rode a brilliant race he is just one of four
runners for
Dandy Nicholls in this race. A group 3 winner he has a good record
when
dropped into this grade of race and with the ground Ideal suitable
and a
former winner over this 5F he could bounce back to make a good bid
here
today.
My Tissue Price - 12/1
5 - Merlins Dancer - Recently trained
by Dandy Nicholls and having first
run for new yard this bold front runner is best when given a running
rail to
kick off so a straight 5F in which he is 5lbs high in the handicap
doesn't
look the race for him and this looks a process of getting him
handicapped
for a future race. Quicker ground on turf is usually ideal he has
never
really lit up to well on a softer surface and is best passed over
for his
first start for the Dow Barn.
My Tissue Price - 33/1
6 - Corridor Creeper -
Regressive type but handicapped to win a class 2
handicaps after 3 solid efforts this term behind Carribean Coral,
Terenita
and the best handicap sprinter around at the moment Sierra Vista.
Well
weighted with Carribean Coral on that defeat taking the claimers
claim into
account he has good course form to be respected in this race and
good speed
figures to be a force still over this quick 5F with the conditions
as
perfect as possiable for him. Seasoned sprinter he is in the
twilight as a
sprinter at 10yo he knows how to settle in big fields such as this
and isn't
out of the equation here.
My Tissue Price - 10/1
7 - Cape Royal - Another
sprinter you know what you are likely to get from
Milton bradley and it will be interesting to see how these two pair
up
against each other in the market as few years ago Corridor creeper
would
have easily been the pick of the two at the weights today and Cape
Royal a
course specialist has been very conssitent around this mark and
there isn't
likely to be to much between them here. Has had some laboured
efforts since
getting his head in front over course and distance from Kay two in
which he
had Moorhouse Lad back in 3rd that day. Ground is ok today for him
despite
most wins on good to firm ground and Draw 2 isn't one of the cold
draws
here.
My Tissue Price - 14/1
8 - Classic Encounter - firmly
put in his place at Goodwood last time by
Rowe Park and has some ground to make up on Cape Royal at the
weights today.
8lbs higher in the handicap then when winning at Goodwood he finds
himself
5lbs better off at the weights with Loch Verdi on the run behind
Rowe Park
and has claims to reverse the form of that run today on these terms
taking
into account the change of jockey on both horses. Goodwood may be
his kind
of track but the run behind Cape royal wasn't to bad here and he has
claims
if handling the easier conditions better then his previous try.
My Tissue Price - 16/1
9 - Wyatt Earp - The York win
could turn out to be solid form with the
runner up running a blinder on not ideal conditions, however
Zomerlust
should have won then and should have won at Catterick the time after
so the
form could be treated with a little caution here. Richard Fahey
never plans
handicap raids down south at tracks such as Epsom and is 1/22 in all
age
handicaps. The ground needs to dry out more for Wyatt Earp to have
ideal
conditions and this quick 5F may just be a little to sharp for a
horse best
over a galloping 6F and there will be other days for this
progressive horse
with a penalty for a narrow win.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
10 - Machinist - Effective over
a range of trips you can never be to sure
with this talented handicapper and the drop back from 7F to 5F after
a
disappointing show in the Victoria handicap should suit. 50% strike
rate
over 5F his win came at the stiffer 5F of Ascot when holding on from
the
fast finishing One more round that day. This is the quickest 5F
around and
one that he will show up well but when the others quicken the
response from
this horse may just not be sharp enough but under the Aussie Kerien
Mcevoy
he has a great judge of pace on top and is only 2lbs higher in the
handicap
in which he is entitled to win of the higher mark here as they inch
just a
few more drop of improvement out of their horses every year it
seems. Best
on quick ground he should find good ground just as effective over 5F
and
certainly is one not totally to discount.
My Tissue Price - 16/1
11 - Moorhouse Lad - ran a creditable race here behind Cape
Royal and just
in front of Classic Encounter and only finds himself slightly better
of at
the weights for today's race. All wins have come in small fields and
on a
quick surface he doesn't have either ideal for himself today. 10lbs
higher
in the handicap then when he got his head in front he has showed
improvement
as does many Brian Smart sprinters and has been knocking on the door
of late
he is a handicapper looking very like a winner in the coming months.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
12 - Carribean Coral - Winner at
Chester race course when narrowly beating
Corridor Creeper and has to defy a weight pull with that rival here
today and
is 4lbs higher in the handicap, one that wins in term as many of
John Quinn's
runners does he could be this years Fantasy Believer for a handler
who
improves his handicappers through out the season. a Previous winner
of this
race he isn't the most consistent of handicappers to follow and with
a
exposed angle to his form he most probably wont find the necessary
improvement to land a competitive handicap such as this,
My Tissue Price - 16/1
13 - Bigalos Bandit - Another
for Dandy Nicholls who showed plenty of pace
around the tight turns of Chester and is certain to show up well
under
Franny Norton from the front today. Best in a smaller field in which
he can
dictate the pace. A winner on Good to soft ground at a lower level
he is
best when allowed to skip of the top of the turf and bowl along and
today's
race doesn't look a race that he would be ideally suited too. Well
weighted
with a few of these on Chester run but that race would most probably
suit
him better then this today.
My Tissue Price - 25/1
14 - Overstayed - heavy ground
winner has a bit to find with most of these
on form today and should be found easier handicaps then this in
future. dane
O'Neil has been booked by Ian Semple to good effect in the past
(1/3) but
with this quicker 5F on ground that isn't deep enough he looks
booked for a
rag postion here today.
My Tissue Price - 40/1
15 - Fantasy Explorer -
Potentially the first choice on jockey bookings for
John Quinn and one that is entitled to improvement this season and
should
overcome a 5lbs higher mark at some point this season when the
ground is on
the firm side of good. Jimmy Quinn gets on well with the horse
having won
and placed on in the past and is a class 2 handicap winner at the
right end
of the weights, but needs to show more then he did last time out
behind
Kostar where he never landed a blow and seems to go best when kept
to
shorter breaks.
My tissue price - 16/1
16 - Handsome Cross - the last
of Dandy Nicholls runner and one that enters
the race in form after a good effort behind Sarfari Sunrise last
time over
5F on the galloping track of Ayr. 5lbshigh in the handicap he has a
much
harder task here today then that day but handles give in the turf
and has
good form over this short sharp trip. Paired with a jockey who gets
on well
with him he is yet to win on a undulating track such as this in 5
attempts
such as this but could be one that gets placed.
My Tissue Price - 20/1
17 - Loch Verdi - Improving
youngster shows lots of pace and should be
suited to this quick 5F on conditions such as this, weighted closely
to the
likes of Classic Encounter she showed a willingness to battle on and
prove
that she isn't just a one trick pony. She could reverse form with
the inform
Rowe Park next time they meet and she should go close to winning
this under
Martin Dwyer with skinning fit for the run last time and looks
handicapped
to go well in this today. The drier the ground the better she sould
be and
is well worth considering in this open race.
My Tissue Price - 8-1
18 - Steelcut - Unexposed 3yo
who showed plenty of pace last season. Needs
more to have a say here based on the return run at Newmarket and
will
appreciate the drying ground today. Sure to show up well early on he
is sure
to progress through out the season on the northern circuit and a
drop back
to 5F should help to see more improvement but this looks just a step
to hard
for a 3yo.
My Tissue price - 25/1
19 - Holbeck Ghyll - Out
of the handicap and ran a creditable race at
Thirsk last time. Best at Goodwood he was a little disappointing
when
finishing 4th at Goodwood behind Classic encounter and looks like
the
handicapper has him in the grip here for this assault against better
class
of sprinters, the quicker ground the better and it may not be quite
quick
enough for him today to be at his best.
My Tissue Price - 33/1
Verdict - Hoghmaingh
looks worth another chance at 7/1 in this race as it is
certain to suit while the old guard Fire up the Band 20/1 and
Corridor
creeper 14/1 should be respected. Loch Verdi is the unexposed
sprinter to
note and these four should all go well and with the drying
conditions.
Selection
Hoghmaingh 7/1 & Loch
verdi 12/1
Well Chief
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