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International
Preview - 21 Nov 2007
The dreaded 'Pot
1'.
It's starting to become common knowledge that nobody wants to be
seeded first for the Euro 2008 finals next summer. I expect the
markets will have reacted fully by Wednesday, so it makes sense to
get in early with a couple of speculative bets.
The key game is Belarus vv the Netherlands. Marco Van Basten's
side would struggle to win this one at the best of times, given how
poorly they have performed in this campaign. The latest news is that
Edwin Van Der Saar and Ruud Van Nistelrooy are out. Clarence Seedorf
has declared himself too tired to travel, and Rafael Van Der Vaart
is looking likely to follow suit. Basically, if they get any kind of
result in Belarus, they are guaranteed to be top-seeded alongside
Greece, Switzerland and Austria. A 'group of death' would almost
certainly be on the cards (France and Spain are projected to go into
Pot 4).
Should the Dutch come away empty-handed (and it would certainly
be in their best interests) the onus lies on Germany (who kick-off
two and a half hours later) to slip up against Wales, or risk being
lumbered with the unwanted top seeding. Oliver Bierhoff is well
aware of the situation, having publicly bemoaned the ranking system
prior to the shock 3-0 defeat against the Czech Republic. A result
which put the Germans in pole position for a cushy second seeding.
You can approach this game one of two ways. Lay Germany at around
1.3 and look to get rid should the Netherlands get a result. Or
alternatively just sit back and see what happens. However, with the
situation likely to become common knowledge long before then, don't
expect to find a decent price.
Belarus v Netherlands. Wednesday 17:00
Recommendation: 4pts Belarus @ 9/2.
Betfred, Stan James, Skybet.
Germany v Wales. Wednesday 19:30
Recommendation: 2pts Draw @ 5/1.
Expekt, Boylesports.
Ilunga
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