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International
Preview - 17 Nov2007
Poland v
Belgium. Saturday 19:25.
Cast your mind back to the opening day of the 2006 World Cup.
Germany beat Costa Rica in an entertaining affair. Then we had
Poland vs Ecuador. Every man and his dog were on Poland. The solid
European outfit against the South American side that travel about as
well Guinness in a can. Shrewd punters were lapping up the early
11/10, and the Poles were backed at evens and beyond. What happened?
They lost 2-0. Basically, they bottled it. And not for the first
time.
So why should things be any different now? Especially coming on
the back of a hard-fought 3-1 victory against Kazakhstan last month,
that had more than a touch of the wobbles about it. Poland are
within touching distance of Euro 2008, but failure to win tonight
could mean Leo Beenhakker's side face a make-or-break fixture in
Serbia on Wednesday. A home tie with Belgium, who have nothing but
pride to play for, is their chance to make qualification easy.
There has been talk of numerous players pulling out of the
Belgian squad, which has seen the Poles backed into 4/9 on Betfair.
Thing is though, aside from PSV midfielder Timmy Simons, none of the
dropouts are hugely important. Belgium coach René Vandereycken can
still call upon the likes of Bundesliga performers Vincent Kompany
and Daniel Van Buyten, veteran midfielder Bart Goor, plus AZ Alkmaar
striker Moussa Dembele and Lille's Kevin Mirallas, one of the star's
of this summer's Under 21 tournament.
As well as Poland have performed in this group, you can't help
worry about the fact that so many of their key performers are just
not in any kind of form. The likes of Ebi Smolarek (Racing Santander),
Maciej Zurawski (Celtic) and Jakub Blaszczykowski (Borussia
Dortmund), attack-minded players who are so relied upon, can't get a
game for their club sides at present.
While there's no doubt that Poland are the better side currently,
and have the greater motivation, the odds don't reflect the fact
that there really isn't a lot between these two sides in quality
terms. All the pressure is on Poland, and if history is anything to
go by, they don't cope particularly well with it.
Recommendation: 5pts Belgium +1 (Asian
handicap) @ 2.31. Canbet.
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